Johnny Manziel Out Sunday: Predicting His Future

The Cleveland Browns announced that Johnny Manziel is out for Sunday’s Week 17 game, ie the rest of the season. Brian Hoyer has a shoulder injury but is probable for the game. Connor Shaw was called up from the practice squad to be the backup quarterback and Rex Grossman turned down an offer to sign with the Browns this week so he could spend time with his family.

A very Browns way to end the season huh?

So what does that mean for young Mr. John Football? What do we know about Johnny Manziel from his just about 6 quarters of play in the NFL that will help us predict his future?

Honestly, not much. We know that he struggled mightily in his first game against the Cincinnati Bengals and that he was looking better, but not great, this week before getting hurt. We know that he is a smaller quarterback, with a good to great arm, that likes to play outside the pocket much more than he likes to be in the pocket.

We also know he struggles with his progressions, feels uncomfortable unless the pocket is perfectly clean and has some accuracy issues.

To be fair, we knew a lot of that before the NFL Draft and we were still very excited about the possibility of Manziel developing into the Browns real QB of the future.

Yet things didn’t go according to what we had hoped, and what it seemed like the coaching staff was planning on, as Manziel played this season. Manziel has a ton of talent but he also has a ton of habits that had to be worked out. While some believe that playing in games would be the only way to do so, we fully disagree. When under pressure everyone reverts to muscle memory, habits, instead of sticking with newly trained skills. Manziel showed that in his short time on the field.

That isn’t to say he can’t improve, or won’t improve, just that we believe, and think the coaching staff did as well, that Manziel would be best served sitting and training all of this season before competing for the starting spot next year, after a full off-season of work.

Instead we have 6 quarters and an injury to help us predict Manziel’s future. So here we go with the 3 possible paths we see Manziel’s future going down:

Starts and Struggles in Cleveland

This is the most logical, but hot take-y, path. He struggled for 6 quarters so he is going to struggle for his career. A lot of bad assumption made in that statement but this path is a distinct possibility for his time in Cleveland.

Manziel has not seemed to earn the respect of his coaches, or at least their trust, as seen by the limited play calling that they have given him. This week was a great example as the playbook opened up as soon as Brian Hoyer took over the offense. Many of those plays were not given to Manziel in what seems like a lack of trust.

In Cleveland he will likely, hopefully, be playing for a conservative, defensive minded coach in Mike Pettine. Coach Pettine is unlikely to give Manziel free reign to head up a risky, run around kind of offense. He will always be expected to make the right decisions, hand the ball off and get the Browns offense in the right position. His history says he wants to make big plays, wants to ad lib and wants to take chances.

Nov 30, 2014; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel (2) lays on the ground after being tackled Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams (not pictured) during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills won 26-10. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

He also has a ton of issues still to untrain from his time in college. When he hits his back foot in his drop he hasn’t done a great job of getting the ball out. Receivers aren’t going to be “college open” in the NFL and he has to lead them open. He has waited for them to come out of their breaks before delivering a rope of a throw with his strong arm. He needs to learn to throw it before they make their break so the defenders don’t have time to break on the ball.

He also has to be comfortable in a muddled pocket. Besides play calling, one clear difference when Hoyer came into the game was his willingness to say in the pocket to make throws. For Manziel, as soon as a offensive lineman was pushed back at all, he bailed, often rolling right. This cuts the field in half and limits his throwing lanes to receivers coming open. He likely never would have made the throw to Jordan Cameron that led to the 81 yard touchdown because he would have left the pocket instead of stepping up and delivering while being hit.

The combination of the coaching staff and struggling to make huge adjustments to his game could cause Manziel to struggle in Cleveland.

Starts and Succeeds in Cleveland

Given all that was stated above there is still a ton of hope that Johnny Manziel can be a quality starting quarterback in the NFL. He has athleticism, a strong arm and from all accounts is highly competitive. Transitioning to the NFL is tough for all rookies and quarterbacks have it worse than most. If Manziel applies himself to the off-season, as many retired players have stated he needs to, he could come to Training Camp next year looking like a whole different quarterback.

The offense, while limited, includes a bunch of deep shots off play action passing. It can take advantage of him as a run threat and we build off what is expected to be a strong running game. With Manziel’s big arm a play action fake, with a deep 9 route could be a regular occurrence in Cleveland for years to come.

The Browns will also try to do things to help Manziel be successful. Whether that is incorporating more Zone Read action or bringing in a couple bigger receivers, the goal is for the quarterback to be successful, within limits, and the Browns should be able to make that happen.

The combination of his skill level, past success, some hard work and some adjustments by the Browns and Johnny Manziel could become Johnny We Finally Got Our QB in Cleveland.

Traded, Sits and is Successful (Dallas Cowboys)

The final path we can predict is Manziel being traded to the Dallas Cowboys. Something we predicted at the start of the season is still a possibility. Yet instead of Manziel getting traded because Tony Romo got hurt, he is traded because the Browns have seen enough and the Cowboys take advantage and plan for the future.

With the Cowboys Manziel is likely to sit at least another year. During that time he will continue to develop and work on the issues that he has with his game. If/when Romo either gets hurt or the Cowboys move on from him, Manziel will be ready to take over.

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If Manziel is traded, and sits at least another year, we fully expect that he will be successful. The Cowboys in particular would be a perfect landing spot, at least on the field. They have built a great, young offensive line, will likely re-sign Dez Bryant and Jason Garrett has been great at working with quarterbacks.

A situation where circumstances can dictate outcomes. Tom Brady may not have succeeded if he was drafted by the Browns instead of Spergon Wynn. Instead he went to the New England Patriots and the rest is history. Manziel could be successful in Cleveland, but being traded to Dallas and sitting for another year could be the right formula for his long term success.

We have given you our three path prediction for Johnny Manziel. We are sure there are more but these three make the most sense at this time. What the Browns front office and coaching staff decide to do this off-season, in a variety of areas, could be very telling.

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Which path do you think is most likely for Johnny Manziel?

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