Dawg Pound Daily bettor’s guide to the NFL: Week 2
By Roger Cohen
Aug 15, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; General view of golden NFL shield logo in the end zone to commemorate Super Bowl 50 during the preseason NFL game between San Francisco 49ers and the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Keeping my Wall Street Journal pledge, I abstained from betting any NFL games in Week 1 and only missed it momentarily when the New York Giants two-time Super Bowl-winning tandem of crazy grandpa Tom Coughlin and goofball quarterback Eli Manning mismanaged the clock, allowing “how ’bout them Cowboys” to sneak out a 27-26 win.
That hit the jackpot on Sunday night for the “what I would have bet” Giants at +6, and teasing all those open Jets teasers to Dallas, with all sides winning. A lot.
Officially, my Week 1 Dawg Pound Daily picks finished 1-3. By the way, I was also wrong that Travis Coons would be the first NFL kicker to miss the new point-after attempt – but he may get inducted into the Hall of Fame for making the longest one at 48 yards!
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For Week 2, I’m dusting off one of the Handicappers’ 101 Basics: predict the spreads before you see the official lines, the compare the two to determine if there’s a gap of more than two points, which would make those game potentially “bettable” games to monitor.
(Warning note: my wife, Janet, who’s never placed a football bet in her life, can usually clock about 80 percent of the week’s card, scientifically validating osmosis from all that NFL Network piped through the household.)
My predicted spreads differed from the Thursday morning Sportsbook.com lines on three of the 16 games, so for recreational purposes only*:
- Dallas +5.5 should only be getting a field max at the Philadelphia Eagles.
- Miami is a 6.5 favorite in Jacksonville? Nope, Jags might even win.
- Baltimore couldn’t beat a flawed Denver squad and staying out West won’t help, with a healthy David Carr at quarterback Oakland +6.5 is a black hole bargain.
Bonus: here’s your near-guaranteed “teaser” plays (where you get an additional six points). Mix and match them to your heart’s content:
- Pittsburgh (-7) teased down to even is a lock. They may even shut out the San Francisco 49ers.
- Indianapolis (-7) can’t start 0-2, can they? And the Browns certainly didn’t exactly beat up the J-E-T-S.
- And yes, your absolute gift teaser play of the week: Tennessee +4.5. Does anyone think the Browns we saw last week can win a home opener by more than a field goal? (Editor’s note: the line has since moved to Titans -2.)
My wife and I will be at FirstEnergy Stadium tomorrow for the opener, being feted as season-ticket holders on the sidelines pre-game on what was once the painted mud of hallowed Cleveland Municipal Stadium, but is now some fancy kind of grass, rooting like hell that I’m wrong.
But if I was betting, Tennessee 24-13 sounds about right.
*Editor’s note: Seriously, this is for entertainment purposes only. Gamble at your own risk.