Dawg Pound Daily’s Bettor’s Guide to the NFL: Week 5
By Roger Cohen
Sep 27, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys fans hold signs for quarterback Brandon Weeden (not pictured) during the game against the Atlanta Falcons at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
This prediction business is getting to be mega-miserable since the only games I’m consistently picking right seem to be losses by the Cleveland Browns.
That was the case last week as I had the Browns (+7.5) losing a close one – although my scenario had Travis Coons missing the winning field, not Chargers rookie kicker Josh Lambo getting to play a “let” because Tramon Williams allegedly jumped the snap.
(And no, “OffsidesGate” doesn’t come close to Dwayne Rudd’s Helmetgate or Bottlegate on the Cleveland misery scale.)
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My pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) pushed, but now I understand why I liked, but didn’t love, Houston (+6) and Kansas City (+4): Atlanta led the Texans 42-0 at one point, and each time the Chiefs kicked a field goal, the Cincinnati Bengals scored a touchdown in their 36-21 victory. One win, one tie, two losses.
My teaser picks (where you get an additional six points) continued their .667 winning percentage with San Diego and Denver posting home wins, with Arizona suffering its first loss.
But since this is just for fun and my Dawg Pound Daily editors haven’t canned me yet, let’s dive into some attractive “theory” plays for Week 5:
- “Bet Against Bad Teams Giving Points”: Jacksonville +3 vs. Tampa Bay
- “NFL Teams Rarely Cover Four Straight Games, Let Alone Five”: Washington + 7.5 vs. Atlanta
- See above: St. Louis +9 vs. Green Bay
- “Three Straight ATS, Forget the Bye, Forget Brandon Weeden’s the QB”: Dallas +9.5 vs. New England
I’m not thrilled with the teaser card … except, of course:
- Baltimore to beat the Browns. Wiseguys pushed this line down from 8.5 to 6.5 because the Browns will hang tough.
- San Francisco is a hot mess so the New York Giants on Sunday night at -1 should win at home.
- Using the “they can’t be that good if they beat the Browns” theory, let’s also tease Denver to +1 in Oakland and the Steelers +9.5 in San Diego.
Season Record: Straight 5-8-1. Teaser 8-4.