Dawg Pound Daily bettor’s guide to the NFL: Week 11

Nov 15, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Lions beat the Packers 18-16. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

My wife and sons are re-thinking their decision of “all in” support of my giving up gambling – and with good reason after my last three weeks of NFL wagering advice:

• Week 8 “Bargain of the Year” Denver (+3.5) pulled off an outright 29-10 home upset of previously unbeaten Green Bay.
• Week 9 “Bargain of the Week” Indianapolis (+5.5) pulled off an outright 27-24 home upset of previously unbeaten Denver.
• Week 10 “Bargain of the Month” Houston (+11) pulled off an outright 10-6 upset of previously unbeaten Bengals. In Cincy.

No false modesty, but that’s some damn good handicapping. If I were still betting, I’d have a nice Xmas shopping fund bankrolled – but I’m not, so it just goes down in the books as a “woulda’ gotten rich” entry.

Last Sunday, I also correctly picked three other wire-to-wire underdog winners: the New York Giants (+7.5)  over the “still unbeaten but shouldn’t be” New England Patriots; the reborn, double-digit-dog Detroit Lions beating the reeling Green Bay Packers at Lambeau; and the Chicago Bears (+7.5) road crushing the over-rated St. Louis Rams.

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My two losses were when the Tennessee Titans couldn’t keep up with still the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, and the Minnesota Vikings won in Oakland against the Raiders. (And wouldn’t it be great if the Vikes are playing for the NFC North title outside in the Minnesota elements, Bud Grant/Purple People Eater style in January?)

As for my teaser plays (where you get an extra six points), three easy winners where hit when the Buffalo Bills cruised over the New York Jets; Washington put up 42 on now unemployed Rob Ryan’s New Orleans defense; and, well, you know what happened in Heinz Field. (Are Johnson Bademosi and Charles Gaines still in the same ZIP code with Antonio Brown?)

The two losing teasers came when the Dallas Cowboys found a way to fail in Tampa to the Buccaneers, Seattle likewise fell to Arizona, and the Baltimore Ravens had their “Helmetgate” moment as an Elvis Dum(b)ervil facemask call on a play that the NFL admitted should have never been run gave the Jacksonville Jaguars 15 yards and an un-timed field goal for a 22-20 win — a schaudenfrade moment for Browns fans who still hold a grudge against Charm City.

Nothing jumps out as a “bargain” in Week 11 (except, of course the Browns not covering vs. the Bye), and I wouldn’t bet some of these games with your money – especially with all the quarterback question marks at press time.  But Dawg Pound Daily pays me (in fame and glory) to make these picks, so here goes:

• Living in Washington, D.C., going on three decades, there’s nothing more annoying than 24/7 Redskins, especially when they hover around .500. Washington (+7.5) might be a bit of an overlay against Carolina, but I like the Panthers as a tease.
• If Martha Ford can jumpstart the Lions, maybe Jimmy Haslam should turn the Browns’ reins over to his wife, Dee. Detroit (+2.5) against the Oakland Raiders in yet another Eastern Time Zone game.
• Strictly a formula play. The double-digit-dog San Francisco 49ers (+12.5) in Seattle where the 12th Man fans are starting to turn on demi-god Russell Wilson.
• Unless Andy Dalton goes all “Prime Time Andy” and throws six picks against an active Arizona Cardinals’ defense, the Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) should bounce back in Arizona on Sunday night.

With a bad bingo card (especially without an “Against the Browns” free square), getting six extra points in teasers looks a lot safer this weekend:

• Cam Newton and Carolina in a last-minute win over Washington;
• Even without released the Brandon Weeden nowhere close to screwing things up for the Cowboys, Miami stays within a touchdown;
• Baltimore prepares for its Monday Night Bottom-Feeder Bowl in Cleveland by beating St. Louis;
• Philadelphia cruises over Tampa Bay;
• The Vikings can’t get over the Green Bay hump; and,
• New England will lose this year, just not on Monday night against Buffalo.

Season record: Straight 20-20-2. Teasers 27-11.