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NFL Bettor’s Guide: Week 13 Browns bye week edition

By Roger Cohen

Oct 9, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and center David Andrews (60) against the Cleveland Browns during the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Patriots won 33-13. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 9, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and center David Andrews (60) against the Cleveland Browns during the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Patriots won 33-13. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports /
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Taking a look at the smart bets to make in the Week 13 edition of the Dawg Pound Daily NFL Bettor’s Guide.

For only the second time this NFL season, Survivor pool players face the ultimate challenge:

Who do we pick now that we can’t just pick whoever is playing the Browns?

If you never played, Survivor pools require each bettor to pick a team to win straight up — no spread — just Herm Edwards style win the game. Catch is, you can only pick a team once. So no hopping on the Patriots each Sunday. It gets really rough after Thanksgiving when you’re left with options like Tennessee or Los Angeles on the road.

When I was gambling I played in a $25 per entry Survivor pool that paid one lucky SOB about $25,000. Furthest I got was Week 11, and if you think the “bet against the Browns” strategy has worked well since 1999, you’d have lost in Week 2 when the Browns won their home openers — New Orleans and Tennessee — in 2014 and 2015.

This season the 0-12 Brownies so far played only the Ravens twice, so Survivor players could have advanced by picking “whoever plays the Browns.” Plus, that strategy can work in Week 14 with the Bills and Week 16 when San Diego visits First Energy on Xmas Eve in front of I’m guessing 10,000 fans wearing paper bags and 60,000 fans disguised as empty orange seats.

Even though I’d have a shot at that 25 grand this season (yes, I would have bet against the Browns each week), I’m happy to be free from calling bookmakers and checking Sportsbook.com every waking minute. I’m getting more pleasure helping you win $$ and after going 4-2 last week, my record stands at 27-25-2 after a horrendous start.

Playing it safe with just four selections in Week 13:

  • Houston +7 @ GB – Still not sold Pack is back, let alone by a TD.
  • Eagles -1.5 @ Bengals – Would love for Philly to lose out because of draft position, but that’s magical thinking. Bengals get well the following week in Believeland.
  • Lions +5.5 @ Saints – Wrong team favored. Thought this was misprint so beware.
  • Rams +13.5 @ Pats – Simply can’t turn down double-digits, formula play.

Bonus Free Play: Browns vs. Bye — Although RG3 could get hurt without a game given his luck with VIP valet parking.

Next: Who is Ed Reynolds?

Last week 4-2. Season record 27-25-2.

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