NFL Draft: The Myth of the Sure Thing QB
Feb 2, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (left) and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell pose with the Pete Rozelle trophy during the Super Bowl XLIX-Winning Head Coach and MVP Press Conference at Media Center-Press Conference Room B. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
With Tom Brady we are not going to reach back to any scouting reports. He was drafted in the 6th round, a bunch of QBs were taken over him, etc, etc, etc. Often people point to Brady as a reason to take a developmental QB and not “waste” an early pick on a quarterback. As much as their may be a myth of a “sure thing,” the myth of a truly “developmental” QB might be even worse.
Shane Richardson did a great article about developmental QBs and this paragraph tells a good part of the story:
"Since 2004, there were 141 quarterbacks selected: 59 of those were selected in rounds 1-3 and 82 were selected in rounds 4-7. Â For those selected early, the average number of starts is 41.5 per quarterback and have won 50.8% of their starts (among quarterbacks with at least one start). The average number of starts for quarterbacks selected beyond round 3 is 5.3 and they have an average winning percentage of 28.9%. Â Of the 82 late round quarterback selections, only five have started more than 20 games: Ryan Fitzpatrick (33-55), Kyle Orton (42-40), Matt Cassel (33-38), Derek Anderson (20-25), and Bruce Gradkowski (6-14). The first four in that list were all drafted in what has turned out to be the banner year for late round quarterbacks: 2005 and Orton is the only one with a winning record. If you remove them from the equation, the cumulative record for late round quarterbacks is 32-124 among the ones that started at least one game. For those of you who are way ahead of me, let me connect the dots for everyone: 56 of 82 quarterbacks drafted in rounds 4-7 since 2004 have never started an NFL game! Ever! Not one single NFL game."
Brady is the exception, not the rule.
Next: Drew Brees