May 9, 2014; Berea, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns first round draft picks Justin Gilbert (Oklahoma State) and Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M) are introduced to the media with head coach Mike Pettine (left) and general Manager Ray Farmer (left) at the Cleveland Browns Headquarters. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Robert Griffin III and…. The NFL Draft has had a number of quarterbacks coming out of college who some/many thought were a “sure thing.” This has become a topic of conversation for Cleveland Browns fans when thinking about the possibility of drafting, or trading up to draft, Marcus Mariota.
It is a part of a common theme that we have heard about Mariota from fans:
- He is not a sure thing.
- He is a system quarterback.
- Next year’s draft is much better at the position.
- He isn’t worth trading anything to move up for.
- It is too early to give up on Johnny Manziel.
Generally the first two arguments are the strongest with a vocal minority still in favor of Manziel. Some still deny the need for a Franchise level QB, even though the starters in the Playoffs tell us how important the position really is.
So we want to take a look at the idea of “sure thing” quarterbacks and see if it is real. Much like the scene from the move “Draft Day” when Kevin Costner’s character talks about John Elways, Peyton Manning and Joe Montana and the parts of their games that “didn’t seem to matter.” We are going to look back at current starters drafted in the 1st round, and some exceptions, and see if they were considered a “sure thing.”
Our order will start with the best QBs in the league and work our way through.
Next: Aaron Rodgers
Jan 31, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and girlfriend actress Olivia Munn on the red carpet prior to the NFL Honors award ceremony at Symphony Hall. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Rodgers famously slid to the Green Bay Packers and sat behind Brett Favre. That probably was the best thing for him. ESPN’s Len Pasquarelli ranked Rodgers 3rd behind Alex Smith and Jason Campbell coming out in the 2005 NFL Draft and had this to say about his downside:
"Downside: Taller than people thought he would be at the combine but still does not have prototype size. Doesn’t play as quick as his stopwatch speed and won’t make plays with his feet and outside the pocket. Very mechanical, almost robotic at times, in his overall mechanics. Played in an offense that largely emphasized the short and intermediate game and wasn’t asked to throw deep very often. Might be more a product of the system in which he plays, and perhaps the latest Jeff Tedford-coached quarterback to fall short at the NFL level. The dish: Yeah, we know he’ll likely be the first player selected overall, and that some will be ready to send over the guys with the straitjackets for rating him as only the No. 3 quarterback prospect. Maybe he’ll become the first Jeff Tedford protégé to succeed in the NFL, but we’re going to wait and see, and maintain a healthy skepticism."
Rodgers is a unique situation but it was clear that few, if any, thought he was a sure thing coming out of college. He has proven all of those people wrong and is now considered the best QB in the NFL. Is he the lone, best example of a great QB not being a sure thing?
Next: Peyton Manning
Jan 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) throws a pass during the NFL divisional playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts at Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium. The Colts defeated the Broncos 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Peyton Manning
Manning was selected 1st overall and has been the best regular season quarterback for a decade in the NFL. Age is starting to catch up with him but his ability to manipulate the line of scrimmage and make quick strikes to his receivers was unmatched. We all know the famous Ryan Leaf/Peyton Manning debate and many thought Leaf had a higher upside. Obviously wrong.
In Draft Day Costner said that everyone was sure Manning couldn’t throw the deep ball but was that a true concern when he came out? Bob McGinn noted recently some of the concerns that he heard before the 1998 Draft:
"“Florida intimidated him,” an AFC personnel director said. “You really like him because of the personality and all the intangibles but, boy, you’ve got be a little mobile in this league. He has been so well-coached, too. “He’s a self-made player, let’s put it that way. I don’t know how much better he’s going to get.” “Hell, yes, Manning’s good, but his ball waffles all the time,” the scout said. “I didn’t like his ball velocity, either.”"
While we would say that most thought Manning was a sure thing, there were concerns about how he would perform at the next level. Some had concerns that he was wound too tight but the concerns about his arm strength and spirals seemed to be the biggest concern.
Next: Tom Brady
Feb 2, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (left) and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell pose with the Pete Rozelle trophy during the Super Bowl XLIX-Winning Head Coach and MVP Press Conference at Media Center-Press Conference Room B. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
With Tom Brady we are not going to reach back to any scouting reports. He was drafted in the 6th round, a bunch of QBs were taken over him, etc, etc, etc. Often people point to Brady as a reason to take a developmental QB and not “waste” an early pick on a quarterback. As much as their may be a myth of a “sure thing,” the myth of a truly “developmental” QB might be even worse.
Shane Richardson did a great article about developmental QBs and this paragraph tells a good part of the story:
"Since 2004, there were 141 quarterbacks selected: 59 of those were selected in rounds 1-3 and 82 were selected in rounds 4-7. Â For those selected early, the average number of starts is 41.5 per quarterback and have won 50.8% of their starts (among quarterbacks with at least one start). The average number of starts for quarterbacks selected beyond round 3 is 5.3 and they have an average winning percentage of 28.9%. Â Of the 82 late round quarterback selections, only five have started more than 20 games: Ryan Fitzpatrick (33-55), Kyle Orton (42-40), Matt Cassel (33-38), Derek Anderson (20-25), and Bruce Gradkowski (6-14). The first four in that list were all drafted in what has turned out to be the banner year for late round quarterbacks: 2005 and Orton is the only one with a winning record. If you remove them from the equation, the cumulative record for late round quarterbacks is 32-124 among the ones that started at least one game. For those of you who are way ahead of me, let me connect the dots for everyone: 56 of 82 quarterbacks drafted in rounds 4-7 since 2004 have never started an NFL game! Ever! Not one single NFL game."
Brady is the exception, not the rule.
Next: Drew Brees
Jan 25, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Team Carter quarterback Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints (9) throws a pass against Team Irvin in the 2015 Pro Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Most don’t remember that Brees was not drafted until the top of the 2nd Round. Brees was undersized and looked like a system’s QB coming out of Purdue. Mel Kiper noted this about Brees after the Combine:
"The second-highest-rated quarterback going into the combine, Purdue’s Drew Brees, may have lost some ground. While he was solid in the shorter areas, he struggled some throwing the ball down the field."
Doesn’t sound like a “sure thing” to me. Brees was still the 2nd QB drafted overall, behind Michael Vick who went at the top of the draft. Brees only played in 1 game his rookie season before starting all 16 his second year. Far from a sure thing coming out, Brees has been in the upper echelon for many years in the NFL.
Next: Philip Rivers
Dec 28, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) drops back to throw during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 19-7. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Rivers was drafted by the New York Giants and then traded to the San Diego Chargers, who had drafted Eli Manning against his will. Rivers was selected 4th overall but many had concerns about his, still, wonky delivery. NFL Draft Scout had this to say about Rivers’ negatives:
"Negatives… Won’t ever hurt you by running the ball, but has enough foot quickness and hip swerve to elude the rush and throw on the move…Needs to work on his foot quickness in his drops, but has made steady improvement in recent years…Throws the ball with a sidearm motion, but he can improvise and make plays with his creativity…Will struggle with his long tosses, as the ball will sail and hang on him (his best way to get the ball deep is through an awkward wind-up delivery)…His unorthodox style sees him keep the ball at his waist, displaying a low release, but he has good timing."
Not exactly killing him but Rivers was rated so much lower than Manning that the Giants had to give up draft picks that later became Shawn Merriman and Nate Kaeding, two players that greatly helped the Chargers turn things around. Not exactly the sign of Rivers being a sure thing.
Next: Big Ben
Jan 3, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) looks on from the sidelines against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half in the 2014 AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports
Big Ben. A big miss by the Cleveland Browns. In the same draft class as Rivers and Eli Manning, Roethlisberger came out of small school Miami of Ohio as somewhat of an unknown. The biggest knock on Ben was the level of competition that he played against.
There is actually very little negatives that we can find about Big Ben coming into the draft. Here is how one site noted his negatives:
"Negatives: There’s not much to dislike about Roethlisberger’s game. The only knock on him is that he played in the MAC, but with guys like Pennington and Leftwich coming out of the conference in recent years, I doubt his draft status will be adversly affected."
So, while there were very few negatives to Big Ben’s game, he was still seen as much of a mystery. So much so that he was the 3rd QB taken and 11th pick overall. Doesn’t speak well for the Browns decision but it doesn’t seem that he was a “sure thing” guy but pretty close.
Next: Luck
Jan 25, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Team Carter quarterback Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts (12) warms up before the 2015 Pro Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew Luck
Andrew Luck was considered a sure thing. Period. There is almost nothing that pops out about Luck from any profiles that we read. This is how the NFL’s own site described his weaknesses:
"WEAKNESSES One would be hard-pressed to find negatives to Luck’s game. There are no glaring weaknesses in his play, and while some could argue he isn’t the athlete that RG3 is, that is simply not his game. He displays the athleticism necessary to excel as a pocket passer. There are times when Luck second-guessed passes and simply didn’t see a breaking corner coming from another zone, such as the play that almost got Stanford beat towards the end of a high-energy USC game, but for the most part Luck works to identify and improve on his weaknesses."
Luck was so good that ESPN devoted a great slideshow comparing him to a 3 other “can’t miss” QBs in a number of categories. He comes out looking very good. No wonder Mike Holmgren reportedly tried to give up the Browns entire draft to go up and get him.
Next: Superman
January 10, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) before playing against the Seattle Seahawks in the 2014 NFC Divisional playoff football game at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Cam Newton is a physical prototype at the QB position yet some were not sure he would be the first overall pick. NFL.com described his weaknesses like so:
"WEAKNESSES Not proficient at going through his progressions or making NFL reads. Doesn’t anticipate receivers getting open, must see them in a window. Inconsistent accuracy due to poor footwork and falling away to avoid a big hit. Despite athleticism, needs to improve his drop mechanics and the finer points of pocket mobility. Numerous off the field issues worth investigating."
Some very important aspects of being a quarterback are knocked on Newton. Doesn’t make progressions, reads. Doesn’t anticipate, accuracy issues. Then there are the off the field concerns that led him to leave Florida, go to Blinn and then end up at Auburn.
Some thought the Panthers would be better off going with a safe pick over Newton. There were thoughts that he would be a big time Franchise QB but that was full of projection as obvious by the weaknesses noted above.
Next: Danger-Russ
Feb 1, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) throws a pass during the third quarter against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Wilson might be the QB that Browns fans hang their heads about. Wilson was drafted in the 3rd round in the same draft that the Browns drafted Brandon Weeden. Based on the surrounding cast, I am unsure if Wilson would have been successful in Cleveland. In Seattle he has grown as a QB but was carried early on by a great defense and running game. That is something the Browns currently have, which could help a young QB develop like Wilson.
Wilson had a good arm and a ton of intangibles coming out of college. Size was a concern as many thought it would impact his ability to be a pocket passer. NFL.com noted size as his only weakness:
"WEAKNESSES Wilson’s height will be his biggest inhibitor at the next level and the largest reason for his late-round value. It remains to be seen if he can throw effectively from the pocket at the next level."
Wilson went in the 3rd round, wasn’t considered likely to start (remember Matt Flynn) and was given a great situation where he had no pressure. He has succeeded but no one thought he was a sure thing coming into the draft.
Next: Matty Ice
Jan 25, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Team Irvin quarterback Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons (2) during the 2015 Pro Bowl against Team Carter at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan was one of the QB’s that Mel Kiper and Todd McShay used to compare Andrew Luck to. Ryan has been good in the NFL but has been surrounded by a ton of offensive talent. He has had very little post-season success and some wonder if he has topped out.
Coming out of Boston College he was seen as a smart QB with physical limitations, again from NFL.com:
"Negatives: Lacks the arm strength to challenge the deep secondary, as his long throws tend to flutter or hang up long enough for defenders to attack the ball in flight. Weakest area of his game is exposed when he attempts to fire the deep ball, as the pass tends to lack accuracy. Needs to make quicker decisions when he is flushed out of the pocket and must stop trying to force his throws into tight areas…Needs to protect the ball better; had fumble issues in 2007"
So basically the thought was that Ryan could be a really good to great game manager but that his deep ball limitations would keep him from being elite. He was drafted 3rd overall by the Falcons as they looked to replace Vick but was not seen as a sure thing to be the guy who carries a Franchise.
Next: Tony & Teddy
Jan 31, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (right) and wife Candice Crawford on the red carpet prior to the NFL Honors award ceremony at Symphony Hall. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Romo was undrafted. He came from a small school, didn’t have the physical tools and needed a lot of development. He has proven everyone wrong but was obviously not considered a sure thing.
This one is still very fresh on our minds. Teddy was seen as the sure fire #1 or #2 pick at the end of his college season. By the time the NFL Draft rolled around he had been picked apart for a number of issues. Hand size, physical stature, demeanor, his Pro Day, use of gloves and more. By the time all was said and done Bridgewater slipped all the way down to the last pick in the 1st round.
"WEAKNESSES Has a very lean, narrow frame with limited bulk and small hands. Does not drive the ball with velocity down the field and can be affected by cold and windy conditions (see Cincinnati). Can improve placement and touch on the deep ball. Adequate athlete. Is not an overly elusive scrambler — struggles escaping the rush and buying a second chance with his feet vs. pressure. Passing stats are padded from operating a passing game that relies heavily on short, lateral tosses. Long-term durability could become a concern without continued strength and weight gains."
These are a lot of the same concerns about Mariota. Bridgewater showed very good in his first year and could be their Franchise Guy going forward. A number of teams that needed QBs last year and/or need them this year are kicking themselves for passing on him. Even so, Bridgewater was not seen as a sure thing coming out last year.
Next: Matthew Stafford
Jan 4, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) laughs during the game against the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Wild Card Playoff Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Stafford is a big armed QB that has held down the fort in Detroit ever since being drafted 1st overall in the 2009 NFL Draft. Stafford, out of Georgia, has a lot of positives to his game but has struggled at times in the NFL. Before coming out of Georgia there were concerns about him as well:
"Negatives: Can get fundamentally lazy… … Though he has an efficient overall release, should be able to speed it up for underneath screens passes to take better advantage of the surprise to the defense. … Sloppy footwork. … Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL… … Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be… … Not great accuracy on crossing routes. … Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."
Lazy, written a couple ways in that negatives report, is not something you want from your Franchise Guy. He was still taken #1 overall and many thought he could be a sure thing as long as he applied himself. Those concerns seemed valid early in Stafford’s career.
Next: Jay Cutler
Dec 28, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) answers questions from the media after the game with the Minnesota Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium. The Vikings win 13-9. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
The mercurial Jay Cutler could be on his way to his third team next year since being drafted in the 2006. His attitude has been a big concern in the NFL as has his tendency to turn the ball over. With a decent offensive line and great weapons around him in Chicago he has still struggled.
Coming out of college CBS Sports had a number of concerns about him:
"Negatives: Might be a little gun-shy from all the punishment he has taken over the years … Needs to do a better job of securing the ball before running, as he has fumbled 25 times the last two years … Must do a better job at the pre-snap recognizing defensive schemes, as he does not always scan the field well … Seems to lack confidence with his receivers, failing to anticipate when his targets will be breaking, resulting in a high amount of deflected passes … Spends too much time eyeballing his primary target, rarely looking off to locate his secondary receivers (this causes a lot of interceptions (27) and pass deflections (149) over the last three years, including 74 pass break-ups in 2005) … Must learn how to step into his throws to generate better accuracy (steps back on too many of his tosses) … Uses poor judgment at times when flushed out of the pocket, either holding on to the ball too long resulting in a sack, or throwing the ball up for grabs causing costly interceptions … Has good touch in the short area, but because he carries the ball so low, he does not get ideal trajectory to feather the ball over the head of the defender … Lacks accuracy throwing on the run, especially when unleashing from the left hash … Rotates his hips too much through his release and needs to throw off the front foot more."
Cutler was drafted #11 overall and was drafted after Vince Young and Matt Leinart. Not exactly the “sure thing” sign we would be looking for. Cutler hasn’t been as bad as many believe but he has been far from a Franchise carrier.
Next: Joe Cool
Jan 10, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) celebrates after the Ravens
Flacco was drafted out of little Delaware. Some were shocked when the Ravens pulled the trigger on him with the 18th overall pick. Since then he has become a star, winning the Super Bowl and getting a huge contract. He still isn’t a perfect QB but he is considered at least a Top 15 guy by most. Not so much coming out of college.
Flacco left Pittsburgh after he was unable to beat out Tyler Palko. He transferred to little Delaware where he got to play and played well. Some concerns were evident about Flacco though:
"Negatives: Wasn’t able to beat out Tyler Palko at Pittsburgh and only became a starter after transferring to lower level Delaware. … Protected at Delaware with a strong running game. … Improved feel in the pocket, but still hangs on to the ball too long and isn’t particularly mobile. … Took the majority of the snaps at Delaware in the shotgun, raising questions about his ability to make the transition to the typical QB-center exchange, especially considering his lack of foot quickness. … Can slide up into the pocket to buy time, but isn’t going to scare defenses with his scrambling ability. … Tends to lock-on to his receivers."
Most don’t even know who Tyler Palko is which is enough to say that Flacco was nowhere near considered a sure thing coming out. He has produced well in the NFL.
Next: RG3
Dec 28, 2014; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) looks at a tablet on the sidelines against the Dallas Cowboys in the third quarter at FedEx Field. The Cowboys won 44-17. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Robert Griffin III
There is a bit of revisionist history for most when it comes to RG3. Some remember his rookie year and believe that is the real guy. Others think that it was an aberration and that concerns about him coming out of college have come back to bite him. Others believe that injuries are his problem and his career may never get back on track.
For the Browns RG3 might be a good miss. They tried to trade up for him and ended up with Trent Richardson instead. TRich turned into a 1st round pick which turned into Johnny Manziel so who knows. While RG3 was sought after, the Redskins traded a boatload to St. Louis to get him, he wasn’t without his flaws:
"WEAKNESSES RG3 has a slight size deficiency and could have some durability issues if he is hit enough times. He anticipates plays so well and is able to react to a point where he should be able to avoid big hits, even at the pro-level. His junior year was a test to see how well he could recover from a torn ACL in his sophomore year, and he came back just as strong. Some might worry that he will look to run first at the next level, but this could easily be curbed through coaching and a good support system on the offense. He truly had one strong season in college, but playing in a talented Big 12 conference and winning the Heisman likely puts a rest to those concerns, as well."
The concerns about his size and durability have obviously come true. He wasn’t able to curb his running in the NFL which has caused him some trouble. He had one strong season in college and one strong season in the pros. Coming out, except for size concerns, RG3 was considered a sure thing. So far he hasn’t lived up to that.
Next: Alex Smith
Dec 21, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) throws a pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second half at Heinz Field. The Steelers won the game, 20-12. Mandatory Credit: Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports
Alex Smith
Alex Smith is who is considered Mariota’s floor. For the Browns, who haven’t had a Smith type player, that may not be a bad thing but you don’t trade a ton for Alex Smith. Some fail to remember that Smith was the 1st overall pick and drafted instead of Rodgers. Have to wonder if they traded places on draft night how things would have been different.
As it is Smith was not considered a sure thing coming out of Utah. There were concerns about him coming out of the gimmick system in college and his ability to transition to the next level. Here is an interesting quote, from a 49ers site, attributed to Mel Kiper:
"Quotable: “While (Smith is) not the next John Elway or Troy Aikman, lacking that type of arm strength, the overall package of skills he brings to the table definitely makes him deserving of a lofty NFL grade.” — Mel Kiper Jr., draft expert."
At the time that Smith was the 1st overall pick, no one assumed he was a sure thing. He has had a decent career but his lack of arm strength has really limited him to Check Down Charlie status.
Next: The Other Manning
Dec 28, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) looks to pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. The Eagles defeated the Giants 34-26. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Eli Manning
Eli’s stock has fallen greatly in the past few years. Whether it is the talent around him, the new stadium or aging, Manning isn’t considered “elite” anymore. He actually wasn’t considered that outside of his ability to lead his team in the playoffs. He rarely has the numbers that backup the reputation that many have of him. The Giants have been led by a good run game and defense more than by Eli.
Yet he was selected #1 overall and the Giants paid a pretty big ransom to trade for him. He was considered close to a sure thing and the Giants were glad to have him. There were some concerns about him though as one site had him as safe not “franchise”:
"However, after spending many hours evaluating the players from top to bottom, we can’t subscribe to the consensus that Manning is the better quarterback prospect. In short, Manning might be the safer pick, but Roethlisberger is the better one"
Manning was considered a sure thing and he has done a good job of leading the Giants. He is one of few that were considered worth it and the Giants traded up to make sure they got him. Whether they would have been better off with Rivers and the picks is a different discussion.
Next: Carson Palmer
Aug 24, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer (3) signals to teammates prior to the snap during the first half against the Cincinnati Bengals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
We go way back for this one but Carson Palmer was considered a sure thing coming out of USC. He had the size, arm strength and experience that told everyone he would be “The Guy” soon. One way to know a QB was considered a sure thing is that everyone thought he should go #1, there really wasn’t any competition.
Even with that the Bengals took the smart (hard to say about them but true) long term view of Palmer and had him sit for a year behind John Kitna. He was considered a sure fire great QB and yet the Bengals were willing to sit him to let him develop. Some don’t want Mariota because he might have to sit for a year. Sitting did wonders for Palmer and likely would for Mariota as well.
Next: The Other Four
Jan 4, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (14) against the Indianapolis Colts during the 2014 AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
We grouped all these together as recent draft picks for different reasons. Locker retired and was a bust with the Titans. No one thought he was a sure thing and he showed very little, outside physical talent, in college to lead many to believe he could be “The Guy.” There was hope he could develop.
Manuel was overdrafted and has since been replaced by veterans two years in a row. This is what happens, much like Locker, when someone is drafted for their tools over talent. Mariota has shown talent to throw the ball and play the position. Manuel did not show those in college but has the physical tools that many wish Mariota has. Rex Ryan likely will start Matt Cassell and be the second head coach to give up on Manuel.
Tannehill was such an unknown coming out of college. He played receiver for a little while before returning to QB. He was drafted by the Dolphins as they needed a QB and took a chance that he could play well with his former college coach as their OC. The verdict is still out on him but he was not at all considered a “sure thing” coming out.
Finally we end with Andy Dalton because he is the poster child for a QB who is just good enough to keep his team from drafting high but not good enough to get them far in the Playoffs. He is the warning sign for the Browns. The Browns could build a good enough team around their QB that they never draft high enough to get “The Guy” and they are stuck with mediocre play at the most important position.
Next: What Is the Point?
Jan 1, 2015; Pasadena, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) runs off the field following the first half of the 2015 Rose Bowl college football game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Over 4,500 words about the Myth of the Sure Thing QB. The only thing we hope we convinced you of is this: There were very few QBs considered sure things when they were drafted. Most had some high level concerns. Both of the Mannings, Luck, RG3 and Palmer are the 5 that we note were considered “sure things” when they were coming out. Big Ben is close but his competition was a big concern leading him to be drafted #11.
Obviously this writer thinks that Marcus Mariota can be a star. If the Browns draft him and sit him for one year, like Palmer, he will be ready to explode on the league. Yet that is not really the point of all the work that was put into this post.
Even Jameis Winston is not considered a sure thing. Many are worried about his off the field decisions but he also struggles throwing interceptions when players drop into coverage in the middle of the field. That decision making could submarine his career even if he stays clean off the field.
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Browns fans have been begging for a sure thing Franchise Guy. They don’t want their team to spend a high pick on someone who isn’t certain to come in and be great. This exercise teaches us that those type of guys, at least before they get drafted, are very rare. Four out of the five we list were taken #1 overall, the other was taken second. Unless/until the Browns are drafting up there, we are unlikely to feel certain about whatever next QB they take.
How does this article change how you feel about the NFL Draft and the “sure thing” quarterback?