Jan 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) against the Indianapolis Colts in the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Colts defeated the Broncos 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The fantasy football season is here. For some, drafts have begun, while for others, spreadsheets and cheat sheets are still being filled out. Some take it seriously, some do it just for fun, but I want to give you my take on how the quarterback position shakes up if you’re stuck on who to take.
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What’s great about the quarterback position, is that you don’t have to take one high in your draft. This could very well be the deepest position – considering you only need one starter per team – in fantasy.
Unfortunately, I don’t see either Johnny Manziel or Josh McCown as fantasy options, but by drafting a non-Browns player, you might learn to respect another players game that you otherwise might not have paid attention to.
A lot has to do with where you’re drafting when taking a quarterback, but here’s how you should be thinking on draft day when it comes to quarterbacks. So without further ado, let’s begin.
Jan 11, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers before the 2014 NFC Divisional playoff football game against the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
The “Core Four”
There are about four quarterbacks that you should consider within the first 2-4 rounds of your draft (in 10 and 12 team leagues):
These four (listed in order of where the should be taken) are all safe bets for your team in 2015 to be stars. Rodgers and Luck will be the first two quarterbacks taken in just about every draft, because of their skill set, offense, and overall production.
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Rodgers: he’s finished with a passer rating above 100 each of the last six seasons, and last season had eight games in which he threw 3+ touchdowns and no interceptions – I honestly couldn’t do that in a video game. He’s easily the best decision maker in football, never throwing more than 13 interceptions in a season, and hasn’t reached double digits in that category since 2010. He’s a lock for success, and can expected to be taken anywhere from the 15th overall pick to the 25th overall pick in any draft.
Luck: He’s a little less proven than Rodgers, but after a breakout 2015 season, Andrew Luck has without question proven his worth as an elite fantasy quarterback. Luck’s fantasy value has a lot to do with not only with his skill set, but his opportunities. Last year, he had eight games where he attempted 40 or more passes, and four games of 4+ touchdowns. He can improve on limiting turnovers, but with Frank Gore now in Indianapolis, he should have some semblance of a run game, which is something he didn’t have last season. He will go after Rodgers somewhere in the 20-30 pick area.
Wilson: Russell leapfrogs names like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and others for many reasons. One, the trade for Jimmy Graham meant more than just trying to acquire his freakish ability. Seattle originally was cautious in extending Wilson and I think it had a lot to do with his running style not lasting long-term. Wilson ran the ball more than any other quarterback last season, which also gives him another fantasy dimension. But, I firmly believe the team brought in Graham to be a bit more pass oriented and keep Wilson from running as often as he did in 2014. Don’t get me wrong, Marshawn Lynch is still the heartbeat of that offense, but I do think there will be a stronger emphasis on the pass. A more pass-happy Wilson with the ability to make plays with his feet puts him in this elite group. He should be taken anywhere from pick 25-40.
Manning: Peyton was a first-round pick in some league’s last year, coming off the greatest statistical season we’ve ever seen from the quarterback position, but after a rough ending to his season – 3 touchdowns, 6 interceptions in the final 4 games – many are beginning to use his age as an excuse for poor performance. The colder months are when Peyton begins to tail off – check his postseason pedigree for evidence – but even in Gary Kubiak‘s new offense, which seems to be a bit more run oriented, Manning will still put up elite numbers. Actually, when he threw it less than 40 times, he was more productive. Posting an absurd 30/2 touchdown to interception ratio, and a 12-0 record. Less throws for Manning in Kubiak’s offense may actually mean more success. Personally, I think he’s being a bit undervalued, but I see him falling anywhere from 30-45 overall in any draft.
Where each of these quarterbacks get picked, you could probably find an elite wide receiver or maybe even a starting running back, but you also know you’re going to get consistent elite production weekly.
Next: The Second Tier
Nov 3, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) drops back to pass against the Indianapolis Colts during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
The Second Tier
This group can make you look like a genius if you draft correctly in the earlier rounds. Instead of wasting a high draft choice on the aforementioned “core four” you can take a later flyer on one of the guys, and fill the more important needs at running back and wide receiver early in the draft. This group includes:
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Drew Brees
- Eli Manning
- Philip Rivers
- Cam Newton
- Matt Ryan
- Tony Romo
- Tom Brady
- Matthew Stafford
- Ryan Tannehill
- Colin Kaepernick
For the longest time, Drew Brees was one of the more coveted quarterbacks in fantasy football. The loss of Jimmy Graham, and the age of Marques Colston, have all of a sudden changed that ideology. Plus, retaining Mark Ingram and signing C.J. Spiller, leads many to believe that Brees airing it out 40+ times a game is no longer the key to success. Expect a more run oriented New Orleans Saints team in 2015, and a less productive Brees.
Stepping into a more elite conversation in fantasy circles is Ben Roethlisberger. Last season, he fell a tick shy of 5,000 passing yards, and helped propel fantasy’s best running back and wide receiver duo, in Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. He looks great in Todd Haley’s offense, and the pieces are there for a repeat performance.
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Now you start getting into the Rivers, Manning, Newton, Romo, and Ryan territory. All five are solid starters, but will put up less consistent numbers than the aforementioned. Expect Manning in his second year in Ben McAdoo’s offense to be a bit more comfortable, and be the standout in this group.
With the addition of Shane Vereen, James Jones, and a healthy Victor Cruz, to go along with Odell Beckham Jr., you can expect a lot out of the New York Giants offense. Manning came off a career year in 2014, where he threw 30 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions, without Cruz for most of the season and Beckham Jr. for only 12 games. He’s is a real sleeper this season; keep a keen eye out for him.
While I see Manning as a big-time sleeper, the same could be said for Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill, over every year of his career, has improved his game and has really started to feel comfortable in Joe Philbin’s offense. He could very well be better than the likes of Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers and others by the end of his fourth season (fantasy wise).
What to do with Tom Brady? Well, he’ll most likely fall late in many drafts because of his four-game suspension, and the mirky future that holds. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to take a late-round flyer on him, but even last season Brady had a poor start to the year that made many wonder how valuable he was in fantasy circles anymore. If he wasn’t suspended, I’m sure you’d see him mixed right in the middle of this pack, but right now he looks very much like one of the last picks in many leagues to stash away.
Like I said before, instead of drafting a Luck or Rodgers early in the draft, another strategy could be to select someone in this tier. This would allow you to draft a more elite skill position player with your second, third, and fourth round picks.
Dec 14, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) throws the ball against the Oakland Raiders in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
The “Other Guys”
This group features a lot of bye week options. When your starter is taking a break from the game for a little bit, you go to these guys. These guys you hope can start for a breakout week, but shouldn’t be considered long-term options. Here’s who runs this group:
I won’t spend much time with this group because anyone who follows the game understands none of these quarterbacks put up big numbers. That doesn’t mean they aren’t productive quarterbacks – exclude Jay Cutler from this conversation – but the fantasy value just isn’t there for them to be considered legitimate options week after week.
Someone from this group may be the guy you draft with one of your last picks or claim off the waiver wire to sit on your bench. Bridgewater is younger and could grow into something special, but the other four we know exactly what we’re getting from them.
The only player in this group that may surprise is Andy Dalton, considering in 2013 he finished as fantasy’s fifth best quarterback. With a great running back duo, and a wide receiving corp led by A.J. Green, he could be the sleeper in this group to be more than just a spot starter.
Next: Wrap Up
Feb 1, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Wrap Up
So, how would I suggest to draft? Well, there’s a few methods, and it depends a lot on where you draft. In my latest draft, I was able to snag both Adrian Peterson and Odell Beckham Jr. before taking Andrew Luck. Being that I took an elite running back and wideout, taking a “core four” quarterback became an option.
NFL Spin Zone
If somehow, you’re looking to take a Rodgers or Luck with your second pick and passing on an elite wide receiver, I’d suggest you go with the wideout and take a second tier quarterback later on. You might even be lucky enough to find a Wilson or Manning with your 3rd or 4th selection anyway.
Remember, you can still find a very productive quarterback in the “second tier.” If somehow you can stack up on productive running backs and wide receivers, taking a quarterback in the 8th or 9th round isn’t a bad idea.
Also, I would suggest drafting only one quarterback. This gives an extra roster spot for a sleeper at a skill position, and worst case scenario you drop someone from your bench as the year unfolds who isn’t producing to pickup a quarterback. I’d rather have an extra running back, than a backup quarterback because of the upside, that’s just me.
Have fun on draft day, any questions comment below or tweet me @Vin_Rapisardi. Thanks for reading, folks!
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