The Cleveland Browns need to be strategic when free agency opens on March 9, meaning that they should stay away from these five players.
Free agency in the National Football League is a mixed bag depending on how teams approach the endeavor.
For those teams that are smart and strategic, free agency provides an opportunity to add a complimentary player or two at a reasonable price. Those teams approach free agency as a way to add short-term depth or help at a position of need.
Then there are those teams that still believe that free agency offers a path to success and a way to cover up for failed drafts. The scenario plays out every year, a team “wins” the offseason in free agency only to lose once the regular season begins, which is really the only time that a team needs to win.
The Cleveland Browns enter free agency in a good position. While they may not have as much cap space as the Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders, at an estimated $38 in cap space the Browns can be players once free agency begins on March 9.
Related: Cleveland Browns: 10 players to look at in free agency
The Browns need to be wise in how they use that cash, however. Signing players in free agency usually means you are paying someone for what they did for their previous team, with no guarantees you will be receiving that same production. Free agents also tend to find themselves at or near the top of a team’s payroll, meaning that a team is not able to reward the players they have developed accordingly.
There should be some players that will interest the Browns, but knowing which players to stay away from is just as important as knowing which ones to sign.
With that in mind, here are five expected free agents that the Browns should stay away from at all costs.
Next: Quarterback Kirk Cousins
Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins in the latest in a line of quarterbacks that goes back to at least Scott Mitchell in 1994 who are hit free agency at the perfect time.
Cousins is coming off a 2015 season that saw him start 16 games for the first time in his career. In leading Washington to a 9-7 and a playoff spot, Cousins threw for 4,166 yards, 29 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions. The yardage total and touchdown passes easily beat the totals of his first three years combined with the Redskins.
A winning record and a playoff berth sound tempting to a team like the Browns, who have not made the playoffs since 2002 and have posted just one winning season since then.
But scratch a little bit below the surface and Cousins does not look so good.
For starters, the Redskins did not beat a team with a winning record. And in those seven losses, Cousins threw 10 of his 11 interceptions and just seven of his 29 touchdown passes. While that is not all Cousins’ fault, of course, that is not a recipe for success in the AFC North Division, where a team needs a quarterback who can find a way to win when it matters most.
The other factor that should slow the Cousins to Cleveland bandwagon is the fact that the Redskins may not want him.
Washington is in just as horrible of a situation when it comes to its quarterbacks as the Browns are, as behind Cousins they have Colt McCoy and Robert Griffin III, who the team is expected to release. But after developing Cousins for four years, and having no viable option if he leaves, the Redskins are still unsure what to do with him.
That should be enough of a warning to a team like the Browns that they need to stay away.
Next: Running back Doug Martin
The Browns still need to do considerable work if they hope to build an offense that can be competitive on a weekly basis and keep pace with a Ray Horton-led defense that struggles to keep the opponent out of the end zone.
While much of the focus has been on the quarterback and wide receiver positions, the Browns may also have a problem at running back.
Rookie Duke Johnson was an asset in the passing game, but both he and second-year running back Isaiah Crowell struggled to effectively run the ball as they combined to average just 3.75 yards per carry. Take away Crowell’s career day against the San Francisco 49ers and his average for 2015 drops to 3.4 yards per carry.
Enter Doug Martin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished the 2015 season as the NFL’s second-leading rusher with 1,402 yards, while rushing for six touchdowns and 271 receiving yards.
Pretty good, right? Well, maybe not.
The first problem for any team that signs Martin is not knowing which running back you are actually getting. Will it be the one who rushed for a combined 2,856 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2012 and 2015? Or will it be the Martin who ran for just 950 yards and three touchdowns combined in 2013 and 2014?
The second issue is that Martin reportedly wants to “hit the jackpot” in free agency, with the $8 million per year that DeMarco Murray received from the Philadelphia Eagles as a possible starting point in contract talks.
That is a lot of money to pay a 27-year-old running back that has a 50 percent chance of putting up a less-than-average season.
Which makes it a bet that the Browns should not be willing to make.
Next: Linebacker James Laurinaitis
As soon as the news came across the wire that the St. Louis Rams had released inside linebacker James Laurinaitis it was only a matter of time before fans started calling for the Browns to sign him.
This scarlet and gray hued segment of the fanbase operates under the assumption that signing every ex-Ohio State player will solve all the Browns problems, if not on the field then at the box office. In addition, Laurinaitis has the reputation of being a “tackling machine,” which is a good quality to have – especially for a Browns team that struggles to tackle.
The Browns also have an issue at the inside linebacker position, as Craig Robertson hasn’t really done much to establish himself in five years, and Karlos Dansby, while arguably the best player on the defense, is going to be 35 years old this fall. The team can also use help with the run defense.
Laurinaitis, unfortunately, doesn’t represent a cure to what ails the Browns defense.
Tackles are a misleading stat for defenders as they don’t measure the impact of the tackle. Bringing a ball carrier down seven to eight yards past the line of scrimmage is not the same as doing it in the backfield or after a one yard gain. And much like former Cleveland linebacker D’Qwell Jackson, Laurinaitis is a mainstay of making tackles downfield rather than at the line of scrimmage.
He is also one of the league’s worst run defenders, having earned a -30.7 grade from Pro Football Focus in 2015, the worst grade handed out to a player at his position by the analytics site. Overall, the site gave him a grade of -37.6, which ranked him at No. 59 out of 60 qualifying inside linebackers.
Sorry Buckeye fans, but there are better options out there for the Browns.
Next: Tight end Vernon Davis
With the release last week of tight end Jim Dray, the Browns find themselves in the market for another tight end.
The roster currently shows just Gary Barnidge, who was the surprise of the NFL in 2015, and E.J Bibbs, who struggled to get on the field as a rookie.
If it were three years ago, tight end Vernon Davis would be an attractive option. In 2013, while with the San Francisco 49ers, Davis had 52 receptions for 850 yards and 13 touchdowns. But since then Davis has seen his game take a steep decline, as in the past two seasons combined he has totaled just 64 receptions for 640 yards and two touchdowns.
Things got so bad that the 49ers traded Davis to the Denver Broncos last November, with many believing that catching passes from Peyton Manning rather than Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert would be the miracle elixir that Davis needed.
That didn’t happen, however, as Davis saw his playing time continually decrease as the season went along. Over the Broncos’ final six games, which included the playoffs, Davis only had one reception for five yards and was only targeted on four passes.
While Davis is a name that even casual Browns fans would recognize, he is also just barely ahead of former Browns’ tight end Rob Housler in the free agency rankings at Pro Football Focus, making it hard to imagine that the 32-year-old Davis has enough left for the Browns to consider him, even as a short-term solution at a thin position.
Next: Wide receiver Percy Harvin
Much like Vernon Davis, wide receiver Percy Harvin is a player that may have drawn interest from the Browns just a few years ago.
In his first three seasons in the league, Harvin averaged 72 receptions, 875 yards, and scored 24 combined receiving, rushing and return touchdowns for the Minnesota Vikings.
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Harvin’s game has been in decline since 2012, though, and wore out his welcome with the Vikings, Seattle Seahawks (twice) and New York Jets before landing with the Buffalo Bills in 2015 on a three-year, team-friendly contract. Harvin only appeared in five games for the Bills, however, before hip and knee injuries wiped out his season, managing just 19 catches for 218 yards and a touchdown.
Those injuries are a concern as Harvin has played a full season just once and hasn’t played in more than nine games sine the 2011 season. And since the start of the 2013 season, Harvin has just 718 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
If his on-field production is not enough to turn off the Browns, the fact that Harvin has earned a reputation as a headache in the locker room – he couldn’t get along with Pete Carroll in Seattle and Rex Ryan in Buffalo, two of the most player-friendly coaches in the NFL – should be a warning sign. The Browns simply don’t need any drama as head coach Hue Jackson works to rebuild the culture around the club.