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Cleveland Browns: Drafting a running back carries its own risk

By Thomas Moore

Jan 1, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the 2016 Fiesta Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 1, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the 2016 Fiesta Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Cleveland Browns have too many holes to fill to even consider taking a running back in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft.

Ever since the Los Angeles Rams threw mock drafts everywhere into a tizzy by swinging a trade for the No. 1 overall selection in the 2016 NFL Draft, rumor and innuendo has enveloped the Cleveland Browns.

Currently sitting at No. 2, the Browns may pass on a quarterback depending on what the Rams do with their pick – unless of course the Browns like the guy that the Rams don’t pick. The Browns could stay put or, if they don’t like the Rams’ leftovers, could look to trade down rather than just picking the player they really want.

Now that a quarterback may be off the table, or at least moving closer to the edge of the table, Browns fans have renewed the ongoing debate over just what the team should ultimately do come draft night. One plan we’ve seen thrown around involves a trade down and subsequent selection of Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliot.

There is a lot to like about Elliot, who according to his draft profile at NFL.com is an:

"Elite, three­-down running back who has the ability to excel in every facet of the game. Elliott has the rare combination of size, athleticism, pass-catching and blocking skills and his competitive nature is always bubbling on the surface. While he’s had to handle a heavy workload over the last two seasons, Elliot should still come out of the gates as one of the most productive young running backs in the league."

Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? Why, Elliot sounds almost as good as this guy:

"(Player X) is as compact and coiled an athlete as the position has seen since Adrian Peterson. He is explosive, powerful and balanced. He is a heady and instinctual player who is patient enough to wait for blocks and quick enough to cut backfield to daylight. He has a strong core that he uses to break arm tackles and get physical leverage under blitzers in pass protection. He is a true three-down back who can be effective on screens."

Who was that second-coming of Adrian Peterson? None other than former Browns’ first-round draft choice Trent Richardson!

As much as people want to talk about how risky it is to draft a quarterback, the risk is just as high when it comes to a running back. Scouts and NFL draft experts thought Richardson was a sure thing, but after four years and two teams, he has rushed for just 2,032 yards, averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, and rushed for 17 touchdowns – 11 of which came during his rookie year.

Still willing to bet that Elliot is a “sure thing?”

Times have changed and running back does not hold the same value that it once did for teams. While two running backs, Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon were selected in the first round last year, in three of the four drafts prior to that the first running back off the board did not come until the second round. And they have had mixed results so far:

  • In 2014, Bishop Sankey was the first running back selected, going to the Tennessee Titans in the second round. In two years he has rushed for 762 yards and three touchdowns, while averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.
  • In 2013, Giovanni Bernard was first among running backs, going to the Cincinnati Bengals in the second round. In three years he has rushed for 2,105 yards and 12 touchdowns, while averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
  • In 2011, Ryan Williams was the first running back selected, going to the Arizona Cardinals in the second round. In four years he rushed for a total of 164 and zero touchdowns, while averaging 2.8 yards per carry. He was out of the league in 2015.
  • In 2010, C.J. Spiller was the first running back called, going to the Buffalo Bills in the first round. Now in New Orleans, he has rushed for 3,433 yards and 12 touchdowns, while averaging 4.9 yards per carry. But there is a caveat to those totals, as 1,244 yards and six of those touchdowns came in the 2012 season. In the three years since, he’s rushed for a combined 1,345 yards and just two touchdowns.

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Still willing to bet that Elliot is a “sure thing?”

For all the reasons that people say the Browns should not “reach” or “settle” for one of the available quarterbacks because they are too much of a risk, you can apply those same arguments to picking Elliott or any running back high in the draft. (Although the Browns would be better off drafting an Ohio State running back than an Ohio State quarterback.)

Elliott may turn out to be a generational player, but it is just as likely that he will be a running back whose production is not significantly better than a back the Browns can find later in the draft.

And that is not even taking into consideration that the Browns have far more needs to fill than at running back.

The Browns have made risky picks in the first round of the draft – most notably in 2014 – and they are still paying for those mistakes.

This year is not the time to repeat the risky behavior.

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