Cleveland Browns: 3 keys to understanding the use of analytics
By Joel W. Cade
There is an old coach’s truism that players win games. Coaches can scheme, plan, plot and teach all they want. But the game will ultimately be determined by who has the better players. A team can have the best schemes, strategy and innovation in the league; but without players to execute it, it is all worthless.
Every scheme needs players who can play the scheme. With all the “rebuilding” projects the Browns have undergone, they have players drafted to play a 4-3 defense, some to play in a 3-4, corners drafted to play man, while others were drafted to play zone. The result has been a conglomerate mish mash of players who collectively don’t fit any scheme.
The Browns are making the right move by tearing down the roster and starting all over. It allows them to build an entire roster around one specific scheme.
The Browns are now in the unenviable position of having to find players to fit the current scheme. The good news is that Horton’s defensive scheme, roughly speaking, is a “cousin” of former head coach Mike Pettine’s 3-4 scheme. Although they are different, they belong to the same family tree.
Continuity is absolutely necessary for analytics to work. Rome was not built in a day. Nor can an NFL championship team be built in one draft. The Browns are making the right move by tearing down the roster and starting all over. It allows them to build an entire roster around one specific scheme.
The Browns are using analytics as a tool for finding players that fit their scheme. The question of analytics in the NFL is not about its usage. The question and debate is about how influential analytical analysis should be in the evaluation process.
The NFL draft is like playing the stock market. Players’ value rise and fall much like stocks. And much like the stock market, everything involves risk. A stock or player may or may not pan out. The Browns are using analytics in the draft much in the same way stock brokers use analytics – to predict future performance and mitigate against loss.
But unlike the stock market, the commodities bought and sold are players (who are willing active participants in the system). All references to Charles Barkley aside, the players involved must be evaluated for on field performance, scheme fit and personal qualities that might lead to success or failure in the NFL. Analytics cannot determine all these aspects of player personnel.
Next: Analytics is about key performance indicators