Cleveland Browns: Don’t believe the Jimmy Garoppolo hype

The Cleveland Browns are in the mix for the services of Jimmy Garoppolo. But what is his real value? Hint: Don’t believe the Garoppolo hype.

The Cleveland Browns are one of three possible landing spots for Jimmy Garoppolo per Pro Football Focus. The interest in Garoppolo is increasing, leading to calls for the Browns to surrender the No. 12 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft to acquire him.

Is giving up the No. 12 overall pick for a backup with six quarters of game experience and plenty of room for growth a smart move? The Browns are amid a baseball-style rebuild and need to use every draft asset wisely.

In the upcoming draft, the Browns have positioned themselves for a potential franchise altering draft. They hold the No. 1, No. 12, No. 33, No. 52, and No. 65 picks in the first three rounds. These assets are extremely valuable in that they could bring in four or five players who could start immediately. Using one or multiple picks to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo may not be a wise move for a team rebuilding.

Fans and media have fallen head long in love with Jimmy Garoppolo. Articles have been written about how he is worth the No. 12 overall pick.

A recent article by Mike Tanier, NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report, recently made the case that Jimmy Garoppolo was a legitimate NFL prospect in the 2014 NFL Draft. He argues that Garoppolo played well at Eastern Illinois then impressed in the Shrine Game and Senior Bowl that season.

Being a legitimate prospect in 2014 does not translate into the No. 12 overall pick in 2017. In fact, his status as legitimate prospect did not translate into the No. 12 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. Garoppolo was taken with the No. 62 overall pick, or 30th pick of the second round, in that draft. That means that almost every team passed on him twice before he was taken. There had to be a reason for the entire league to pass on Garoppolo at that time.

What has changed from 2014 to 2017 to make a No. 62 overall pick worth the No. 12 overall pick now? In the two seasons after the draft, Jimmy Garoppolo has started two games. In those two games, he lasted six quarters before getting injured. In those quarters, he threw 63 passes. Not much of a sample size. So, the evaluation of what makes him different rests in projecting his future performance.

Here is where it all gets shaky. How can one project future performance of a player with 63 NFL passes? At this point, Garoppolo supporters begin comparing him to potential draft picks. With a quick sleight of hand the conditions of the test are changed.

Instead of comparing Garoppolo to his peers i.e. Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel or Derek Carr (all taken before Garoppolo in the same draft), Garoppolo is compared to draft prospects like North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky, Clemon’s Deshaun Watson and Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer.

When compared to his peers, the NFL found Jimmy Garoppolo lacking with almost every team passing on him twice. But when compared to incoming rookies, suddenly Garoppolo is the best prospect available. The difference? Two years of backing up Tom Brady with the New England Patriots.

Garoppolo’s projected value as an NFL starter always comes back to his time backing up Tom Brady in New England. But how much is backing up Tom Brady worth? The assumption is that whatever weakness Garoppolo may have had coming into the league would have been resolved in the two years with the Patriots.

He would also have learned to be a leader, a pro quarterback and the second coming of Tom Brady (sarcasm intended) whom the Patriots would keep except they already have Tom Brady and cannot afford to keep two top-flight quarterbacks.

Jason Fitzgerald, contributor at sportingnews.com, recently wrote an article outlining each team’s salary cap situation. He concludes that the Patriots have $67 million in cap space which puts them in a great position cap-wise. When discussing the Patriots he states:

"Something doesn’t seem fair when the Super Bowl champions will have this much cap space in 2017, but the Patriots are the most well-managed team in the league, and it shows both on and off the field."

It sounds like the Patriots have the cap space to retain Garoppolo should they decide to. But it does not seem like the Patriots want to keep him despite Tom Brady’s age. Right now, Brady looks like he could play forever. And so did Peyton Manning, until Manning no longer looked like he could play forever.

If the Patriots truly believed in Garoppolo, they have the money and incentive to keep him around for when Brady hits in the inevitable cliff. They may keep him, but right now it sounds like the Patriots want to trade Garoppolo. Eventually, someone is going to ask why.

The why may be answered not in what Jimmy Garoppolo does well, but in what he does not do well. People in support of the Browns trading for Garoppolo like to highlight what he does well. In fairness, he does do several things well. He adequately reads a defense, he changes the play at the line of scrimmage and he ran the same offense as Brady. Focusing on the positives to the neglect of the negatives paints a picture of Garoppolo that any team would fall in love with.

Never fall in love.

Jimmy Garoppolo has weaknesses. His projected value lies in the belief that he has overcome his weaknesses during his time with the Patriots. What are those weaknesses? Here is what Garoppolo’s NFL.com’s scouting profile states are his weaknesses:

"Is a tad undersized with small hands and short arms. Uses a three-quarters delivery that could lead to batted balls. Works heavily out of the shotgun in a spread offense, and footwork could require adjustment to working from under center. Does not always feel pressure in the pocket. Does not rip the deep out or drive the ball with high RPMs. Undershoots and often hangs the deep ball. Makes receivers work for the ball downfield, and deep accuracy could stand to improve. Makes a lot of simple, one-look reads and was not heavily challenged by consistent pressure or complex looks in the Ohio Valley Conference."

Everyone needs to re-watch Garoppolo’s six quarters asking if he has overcome these weaknesses. Then ask yourself, are these things that can be fixed over time? If so, why have they not been fixed by now? After all, he has been backing up Tom Brady under the watchful eye of Bill Belichick.

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Against the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins, several of these weaknesses were evident. His three-quarters delivery lead to several batted passes, one Garoppolo caught himself and advanced. His passes have a slight wobble to them much like Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner’s did.

A wobble indicates a lack of high RPM’s on the ball. His deep balls were inaccurate against both opponents but the outstanding receivers of New England worked hard for the ball and bailed him out. Garoppolo looked hesitant if his first read was not open which resulted in a wobbly inaccurate pass to a secondary target or a sack.

The biggest concern would be his hesitation and inaccuracy under pressure. Late in the Arizona game, the Cardinals changed their strategy and simply pressured Garoppolo. It was effective in holding the Patriots to two field goals.

The next week, the Dolphins game plan was designed to take away his first read, apply pressure and force inaccurate throws. This plan was effective except Garoppolo often found secondary receivers who could haul in the inaccurate throws downfield.

Garoppolo is exactly what his scouting report states. He is “more of a caretaker than a game changer”. To be successful, he needs to be on a team where the playmakers around him can bail him out and make him look better than what he is. He needs to be in a place like New England.

Not to say that Garoppolo is a bad player. But there needs to be a realistic accounting of his value. His tape shows the good, the bad and the ugly. His trade value should be compared to his peers and take the good, the bad and the ugly into account.

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There is a lot to like about Garoppolo. But the fairy tale that the good-looking young quarterback will ride in on a white horse and save the day is just that – a fairy tale. This prince has warts. There is a reason he was the fourth quarterback taken in 2014. It is time for the hype to come back to earth.