Cleveland Browns’ Freddie Kitchens having better year than Gregg Williams

Gregg Williams may get the 5-2 record next to his name, but the Cleveland Browns have actually benefited more from the work of Freddie Kitchens

Gregg Williams has done everything he possibly could to stake a claim to the head coaching job with the Cleveland Browns. His career record is now 5-2, whereas all Browns coaches before him have losing career records. So three games over .500 may not sound like much, but it is huge.

But the only problem is that Freddie Kitchens has been a revelation. If all he needs are three miracles to achieve Sainthood, Kitchens is a shoo-in: Consider the following Miracles:

First, as all Browns fans are aware, Baker Mayfield is amazingly improved after the coaching change was made. He had a 1-4 record under Hue Jackson with 8 TDs, 6 INTs; 5-2 under Kitchens, with 16 TDs and only 5 INTS.

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Despite his great first game victory over the New York Jets, it is fair to say that under Jackson and Haley, Mayfield was performing at a very poor level. He was roughly in the bottom 5 of the NFL depending on how you want to measure it.

Under Williams and Kitchens, Mayfield has performed at the Pat Mahomes level the past seven games.

Second, a mind-blowing offensive line stat is that the Browns allowed 16 sacks in 33 sacks in their first eight games, but only five in the last seven games. This difference cannot be understated. At the beginning of the year, the Browns were getting their quarterbacks pounded. But upon making a coaching change, suddenly the sack problem went away.

Over the past seven games, the Browns have allowed fewer sacks than any other team in the NFL. Part of this is due to young Mayfield unloading the ball in a hurry and being able to scramble intelligently when needed.

Nevertheless, this abrupt turnaround is nothing short of miraculous and may be unprecedented in NFL history. It is the story that no one is talking about because Baker Mayfield is so dynamic that he has overpowered the headlines.

Third, the running game has taken off as well. This is obviously correlated with the exile of Carlos Hyde, who was a favorite of Hue’s or Haley’s, apparently. Rookie Nick Chubb is very young, very hungry, very big, very fast and very, very good. This may not be rocket scientist material to make the change from the veteran to the far more talented rookie, but nevertheless, the new coaches must be credited with having had some influence on the resurgent running game.

The effect of the change from Hue Jackson and Todd Haley to Gregg Williams and Freddie Kitchens is discernible first of all from the win-loss record.

It is also seen in the Pythagorean win percentage. Pythagorean win percentage is an estimate of the team’s win percentage based upon points and opponent’s points. That is, if you outscore the opposition you usually win, and if you outscore them by a lot you win more often.

The Pythagorean win percentage game by game varies a lot game by game and is affected by many factors, including the quality of the opposition and dumb luck, but an overall upward trend is visible. In fact, it is not too far fetched to detect the team getting significantly worse from game 1 to 8, and then the trend reversing from game 9 through game 15.

A yardage based Y-Pythagorean win percentage assumes that the win probability is increased by outgaining the opposition.  The stat isn’t perfect because it doesn’t take into account special teams performance, but does tell you what’s going on between offense and defense.

Applied to game 1-8, the Y-Pythagorean percentage also suggests that the Browns were not a great team at the beginning of the season and got significantly worse up to game. The team has consistently played better game by game and is currently playing at a very high level. That seems to agree with the eyeball test.

The salient point is that there is a real improvement that occurred when the coaching change was made. However, most of the improvement has been in the offense, rather than in Gregg Williams’ defense.

The current staff on the offensive side of the ball is very competent and able to has demonstrated the ability to bring a young star quarterback to play at a high level very quickly.

That is primarily Freddie Kitchens, but we must also credit quarterback coach Ken Zampese, who coincidentally has the same qualifications as Hue Jackson, having been the Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator. He was fired in 2017 after the Bengals got off to a bad 0-2 start against the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans, who were both pretty good on defense.

The defense has been okay under Gregg Williams, but not as outstanding as many had expected. With 366 points surrendered in 15 games, they rank in the middle of the league. The defense has done a great job of generating turnovers but has also given up large amounts of real estate on the ground as well as through the air. Moreover, with players like Myles Garrett, Joe Schobert, Denzel Ward, and a strong supporting cast, the defense should perform at a higher level.

Thus, there is a real improvement in the Browns, and it is very dramatic and mostly from the offensive side of the ball. The really important things are the development of Baker Mayfield and the ability to pass protect.

Shouldn’t the Browns seek to keep that process going? Or is it all right to risk having some other team promote Freddie Kitchens to be their Head Coach?  Kitchens might actually be of greater interest than Williams because the NFL teams love coaches that have a reputation for bringing along a young superstar quarterback.

Whoever the Browns do not promote will become a hot commodity for a Head Coaching position elsewhere.  For that reason, it makes sense to offer the job to Freddie Kitchens.