The Cleveland Browns are trying to buy their way to the Super Bowl
The Cleveland Browns are trying to buy their way into the Super Bowl, and they may even be succeeding.
Much credit is due to the Cleveland Browns front office, with the triumvirate of John Dorsey, Eliot Wolf and Alonzo Highsmith responsible for several incredible personnel moves last year. This year’s moves are also generating rave reviews. They have acquired the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson and Kareem Hunt.
How many of those moves are truly genius and how many are just having saved up a lot of money in the war chest? It’s not rocket science that if you spend more on players, you’ll probably get better players.
The Browns have added $43.5 million in 2019 payroll via OBJ, Vernon and Richardson. That is okay for 2019 and 2020, because the Browns saved up $56 million in “carryover” dollars from money not spent in previous years. They are now overspending the annual salary cap with the money they had saved. It’s an even larger spending rate if “dead money,” or the money paid to players no longer on the team, is included.
Overspending is cool for now, and a Super Bowl could very possibly be a result. But when it comes time to re-sign and pay Myles Garrett and Baker Mayfield, salary cap dollars may be hard to come by. The plan is to worry about that later.
How many games might the team win by overspending versus underspending?
To find out, team wins (y-axis) were compared with salary cap charges, expressed as a percentage of the annual cap (x-axis). Season totals from 2016-2018 were included, based on spotrac.com. Dead money (money paid to players no longer with the team) is subtracted from the charges, on the grounds that if a player is being paid by another team, he can not be helping.
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It’s not quite that simple, however, because in the case of a trade, accounting charges are transferred from the future years to the present year. For example, in the Kevin Zeitler for Olivier Vernon trade, both the Giants and Browns count part of the bonus money as 2019 salary cap charges, even though the total amount of money didn’t change.
The graph shows that sometimes a cheapskate team can win a lot of games, and other times a high payroll results in a losing season. But in general, when a team significantly underspends the cap, they usually turn out to be losers that year. The team that spends the lowest amount in the NFL on current year payroll may be headed for about six wins whereas teams that are maxing out their annual cap are closer to about nine or ten wins, on the average.
For years the Browns have socked money away, turning in the most underpaid roster in the league. Now however, things are different. Just based on spending for active salaries, the Browns look like a 10-win team rather than a six-win team.
Next. Browns five most likely primetime games in 2019. dark
So are the Browns trying to buy their way to the Super Bowl. Pretty much. Can it work? Yeah! It might! The numbers say they might see major improvement.