Cleveland Browns defensive reality check

The Cleveland Browns are having the most exciting off-season in their history, but if there are weaknesses that remain, they are primarily on defense.

First, all kidding aside, this analyst is on record as saying that overall the Cleveland Browns have the best talent in the NFL and should be among the favorites to win the Super Bowl. But no they are not shoo-ins to win the whole thing, and there are holes in the defense that haven’t been filled.

The Browns were a revelation on offense last year, in this analyst’s opinion. Everyone played well, not just Baker Mayfield. Nick Chubb ran the ball, Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, and Antonio Callaway caught the ball, the offensive line had an eight-game stretch in which they were all-universe and they scored a ton of points.

But on defense they were disappointing. The reality is that they gave up 392 points, 12th in the NFL, and for once they could not blame the offense for giving them bad field position. They gave up 393 yards in the NFL, or third worst in the NFL.

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That was painful, especially for those of us who are big fans of Gregg Williams, who was mentored by the great Buddy Ryan, and is an advocate of dominant, takeway-oriented defensive schemes. To some extent, that pressuring, takeway defensive plan worked. The Browns were good at taking the ball away, finishing fifth in interceptions and tied for first in fumble recoveries. It just didn’t work often enough.

If the Browns lead the NFL in offense and give up 392 points, they will make the playoffs, but probably not go very deep. The cliché is true: offense sells tickets but championships are won by defense.

The Browns had two players selected for the Pro Bowl last year: Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. Joe Schobert, who was selected the prior year, and Damarious Randall were also in the discussion, especially in Cleveland.

They had capable, talented veterans in Jamie Collins, Christian Kirksey, E. J. Gaines, T. J. Carrie, and Trevon Coley. They had up-and-coming talent in Jabrill Peppers, Larry Ogunjobi, Emmanuel Ogbah, Terrance Mitchell, and Genard Avery.

Or so we believed.

So how do you have a great defensive coordinator who becomes head coach, four guys who you believe are Pro Bowl material and ten other guys that you believe are at least average, and yet you have a mediocre defense?

Maybe we in the analytic community were too generous in our assessments of player talent. Pro Football Focus (Subscription Required) provides an independent third party assessment. Not that PFF is infallible, but it is interesting to see what a group of independent observers believe about the team. As a general guide, you can figure that league-wide there are roughly 64 first string players at safety, interior linemen, edge rushers and defensive ends, and 96 first string linebackers.

Using that framework, they agree with the Dawg Pound that Myles Garrett, Joe Schobert, and Denzel Ward are stars. However, they felt that Ogunjobi, Coley, and Ogbah ranked in the 80s and 90s, i.e., not high enough to be first string players. Collins was below average, and Kirksey and Avery were among the weakest starters in the league.

In the defensive backfield, PFF ranked Damarious Randall as the 30th best safety in the NFL, or about average for a first string player. Most of us in the Dawg Pound were surprised that he didn’t come out much higher. Peppers, on the other hand, was ranked 19th best overall, or a better than average starter.

At cornerback, PFF figured that T. J. Carrie and Phillip Gaines (not E. J. Gaines) were borderline NFL starter, with Briean Boddy Calhoun and Terrance Mitchell ranked as a high second-string player. Because PFF says that their grading system lowers the scores if the player did not play a full schedule, it can be inferred that Mitchell is judged to be a first string talent, and would score higher if he stays healthy and is used more frequently. Last year he missed a lot of time due to injury.

Hence if you believe PFF, the team had three stars, an above average player in Peppers, and borderline starters or players who should be second-string at the other positions. That’s a jarring assessment, but the numbers say that overall the defense was average despite having star players.

This analyst questions the low ranking of Randall and Avery in particular, but PFF has to be correct that overall, the balance of the Browns’ defense was weak. There’s no other way to account for the lack of production last year. A graphic view of 2018 season is shown in Figure 1. To clarifiy, this is the view of the present author, but it is not far different from the grades assigned by PFF. /

In the offseason, Steve Wilks assumed command of the defense in place of Gregg Williams. Wilks, like Gregg Williams, has a strong resume based on success in Carolina. A failed head coaching gig in Arizona should not be held against him because it is a terrible team with a dysfunctional front office. But back to the Browns.

They have also parted ways with Jabrill Peppers, Brien Boddy-Calhoun, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Jamie Collins, but added defensive end Olivier Vernon, defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, linebacker Adarius Taylor and safeties Eric Murray and Morgan Burnett. It goes without saying that the Browns added talent via the draft, but every team in the NL does that. Let’s not count on their draft being vastly superior to the drafts of other teams. But just on the basis of veteran movement, this offseason has shown a very significant makeover, as summarized in Figure 2.

On paper at least, Taylor, Murray, and Burnett can replace the losses of Collins and Peppers. The most significant improvement is on the DL, where two positions go from second-string talent to borderline Pro Bowl.

Although it may not be very polite, it is not just that Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson are so good — and they are very good players — but the players they are replacing were just not performing at a high-level last year. In particular, Trevon Coley looked like he might be an All-Pro when he first joined the team in 2017, but he did not sustain that level of play, possibly due to injuries.

Similarly, Emmanuel Ogbah was considered a very promising player but now he is playing for Kansas City. Last year, there was no one to make offenses pay for double-teaming Myles Garrett or running away from him. So that is what they did, and they wound up running for 2,163 yards against this team.

There are stars on the team, but at this point, prior to summer camp, the numbers do not add up to a top-five NFL defense. There are opportunities for rookies and tryout players to make the team. Defensive end and middle linebacker are probably locked in, but there could be surprise starters anywhere else.

Defensive Steve Wilks has his work cut out for him. There is potential for a top defense to emerge, but at this point, the defense is not in the same great shape that the offense is in. The defensive unit was barely average last year despite having legitimate star players as well as impressive prospects.

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But it is a young team getting better and they have added some beef on the defensive line. There is very good cause to be optimistic this year, but a lot of work lies ahead.

For more grades, advanced statistics and more at Pro Football Focus, subscribe to PFF’s EDGE or ELITE subscriptions at ProFootballFocus.com.

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