Sabermetric value analysis of Cleveland Browns quarterback, receivers

What is the worth of OBJ and Landry?

The reason two top ten receivers — OBJ and Jarvis Landry — were brought to Cleveland was that John Dorsey convinced the Haslams that the Browns had a legit shot at the Super Bowl this year. If the Browns win it all, OBJ and Landry are both worth the money. Yes, definitely, hands down.

However, with the Browns struggling, the two wide receivers are overvalued assets. If you accept their PFF grades as indicators — 31st and 36th in the NFL, they both have been very good but not threat for the Pro Bowl despite clocking in as the number two and number seven highest cap charges in the NFL for 2019.

The real question is whether the front office was justified in their optimism about the 2019 season. From an analytics point of view, the Browns gave up a lot in the OBJ trade. Not only did they take on a player at fair market value ($17 M/year), but they gave up a first-round draft pick as well as former number one draft pick Jabrill Peppers, representing another $4 million per year worth of assets.

They gained talent, but are burning additional salary cap. The salary cap burn really does mean that the team will have to pass on a future free agent that they otherwise would have signed.

This reviewer felt all along that the Giants were investing in the long run, while the Browns were taking their best shot at a ring this year. It made sense for both sides, although the Browns are going to be disappointed if they do not make the playoffs.

At the end of the day it is tough to be too critical if the team was trying to make the playoffs.

Moreover, OBJ’s grade may be deceptive because of double-teaming and usually facing the other team’s best cover corner. Those factors affect the game grade, but really mean the opposite in terms of the respect given by the other team.

Conversely, Rashard Higgins rarely is covered by the other team’s best corner.  Hence, when he has made it to the playing field he has been about as effective as OBJ and Landry. That’s partly due to the way that other teams choose to defend the receivers.

The tight end position is analogous but on a lower scale.  Receiving tight end David Njoku and blocking tight end Demetrius Harris have been outplayed by Ricky Seals-Jones and Pharoah Brown.

As introduced in the companion article on the Browns defense, the “Estimated Rank Value” is how much the player’s performance is worth based on his grade.  In the real world, you would, of course, modify that depending on the player’s age, team fit and other non-analytic factors.

The “Differential Value” is the difference between how the player is producing versus what the expectation was.

“Value Percentage” is analogous to appreciation or depreciation of a valued asset.  In other words, if the player is playing better than expected, they should have a Value Percentage greater than 1.0. Worse than expected means the Value Percentage should be less than 1.0

The asterisk (*) signifies that the data sample is small.

In the third and concluding article of this series, the offensive line and running back positions will be analyzed.