Fixing the Cleveland Browns: Build through the draft or trade for right now?
Plan B: Work the Draft
With 20-20 hindsight, it is clear now that the Browns should have been adding young players via the draft, rather than blowing cap dollars on veterans for the Super Bowl run that did not materialize. The carryover dollars are still significant at the $30 million dollar level, but last year it was up to $55 million.
This year, if the Browns have more free agents leave than they acquire, they will get compensatory picks. It’s possible that they could qualify for as many as four. Damarious Randall, Christian Kirksey, and Greg Robinson should not given mega contracts in 2020 in order to maximizel compensatory picks for 2021. The exact formula for compensatory free agents has not been made public, but basically the team loses more players to free agency than they sign, they are awarded additional draft picks, up to a maximum of four, somewhere between rounds three and seven.
The team loses a compensatory pick each time they sign a major free agent. For example, the Browns lost Tyrod Taylor and Breshad Perriman at the beginning of 2019, but they signed a few free agents including Demetrius Harris and Sheldon RIchardson, and so they disqualified themselves from compensatory picks. They can not afford to do stuff like that and just blow draft picks that could have been kept.
Similarly, they have to at least listen if other teams are offering first round draft picks for good players. Sportswriters and fans were ready to bury Oakland for trading Khalil Mack for draft picks from the Bears.
On the other hand the Raiders have a top running back in Josh Jacobs, and are looking at a great pick in 2020 as well. The Bears have to pay $26 million dollars to Mack and have found that they miss the draft picks and cap space even though Mack is in fact a superstar player.
Does John Dorsey listen to Paul DePodesta at all? In this analyst’s view, the moneyball methods of Sash Brown and Paul DePodesta were starting to work although they needed Dorsey’s drafting expertise to pick the right guy under center.
In a nutshell, the analytics guys advise teams to accumulate draft picks, and invest in talent evaluators.
Accumulate salary cap space for special opportunities. Forget the participation trophies and other meaningless side agendas.