The Cleveland Browns have a deep history of successful running backs, and being a run-first team is what the team should be built around.
The Cleveland Browns should be a run-first, play-action, cold weather natural turf team. God only knows what they were trying to do last year. They may have mistakenly used Al Davis’ playbook with the bomb-based offense of the Oakland Raiders, with Baker Mayfield in the role of Daryle “The Mad Bomber” Lamonica. The result was a team that led the NFL in interceptions. That is not Cleveland football.
The Browns were born in Cleveland, and their Karma is to play outdoors on a natural turf field next to Lake Erie, which tends to be an open window for Canadian winter weather. The Browns are Jim Brown, Marion Motley, Leroy Kelly, Greg Pruitt, Kevin Mack, Earnest Byner, Eric Metcalf and now Nick Chubb. The Cleveland Browns run the ball.
There are some very nice teams that play in a dome. The New Orleans Saints come to mind, and they have an awesome run and shoot offense with talented speedy receivers coming at you from all directions. But that is not who the Browns are.
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In football, of course, teams have to play in all sorts of conditions. But if and when the Browns are able to play meaningful home games in January, it will be cold and there will be rain, snow and wind. What that means is that the team needs to run the ball on a slow field, have a quarterback who can throw bullets into a cryogenic typhoon, and have receivers who can get open for those stinging passes at short range. Cold weather playoff football is a long lost friend, but it has not gone away. It is very, very real and the Browns are obliged to prepare for it.
For the current Browns squad, it all starts with Nick Chubb, who is arguably the best back in football, especially between the tackles. We have not seen numbers like this since the days of Jim Brown: 298 carries, 1,494 yards, 5.0 yard per carry, 36 catches for 278 yards, 1,772 yards from scrimmage. On top of that they have Kareem Hunt, who put up 1,782 yards from scrimmage in his only full season in 2017 and has a career average of 4.7 yards per game. They also, by the way, have a couple quality third down backs in Dontrell Hilliard and D’Ernest Johnson, both of whom also contribute to special teams. Yet, THIS TEAM DID NOT FINISH IN THE TOP 10 IN RUSHING YARDS LAST YEAR! Let that sink in. That is crazy, absolutely incomprehensible, but true.
So how did the Browns fail to have a top ten rushing attack? Here is another eye-popping stat: The Browns were only 22nd in the NFL in rushing attempts! The Browns coaching staff was adverse to running the ball, believing instead that success depended upon establishing a high flying passing offense with deep bombs to the wide receivers, even when the numbers showed that they were among the leaders in the NFL in throwing interceptions.
The Browns ran the ball only 42.4 percent of the time. By contrast, the arch-rival Ravens ran the ball 57.5 percent of the time, highest in the NFL. Now of course the Purple Chickens have Lamar Jackson, who is going to accumulate yardage on the ground, and Baker Mayfield does not do that. On the other hand, the Browns have freaking Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and company. The carries are there if they elect to use them.
Incidentally, there were only three teams in the NFL that ran more often that they passed: Ravens, 49ers…..and the Minnesota Vikings with Kevin Stefanski coordinating the offense.
Quarterbacking a run-first offense
If you want to help Baker Mayfield, turn loose the running game. It’s a cliche from back in the 1970s that you have to establish the run to set up the pass, but it is still true.
You can disparage the Ravens’ passing game all you want, but that is just losers talk. It is true that Lamar Jackson did not accumulate gaudy passing yards, but so what? The Ravens led the NFL in passing touchdowns with 37, meaning that the run really did set up the pass.
By gaining yards via the run and short passes, eventually the opposing defense has to devote resources to slow down the “Run-and-Dink.” That is the cue to go airborne, often against an eight-man front and single coverage. Losers can whine that the passing touchdowns are cheapened because of the assist from the running game, but they are still worth six points apiece.
Conversely, the Browns coaching staff seemed to be pathologically ashamed of using the running game. Do you remember the game against Seattle, with the Browns leading 20-6 with under two minutes before halftime and the ball on the 12-yard line? Instead of giving the ball to Chubb and at least burning some clock and getting a field goal, they went no-huddle and threw an interception. As pointed out by Dawg Pound Daily’s Joel Cade, the reason for this can only be that they were thinking of scoring quickly, getting a three and out from the defense, and then scoring again. It signifies that the team was not only greedy but grossly overconfident in the passing game, so much so that they were willing to bypass conventional football strategy.
The 2019 Browns seemed to have the idea that Mayfield needed to throw the ball often, and throw it consistently deep in order to succeed. They felt they needed to get the ball to Jarvis Landry or Odell Beckham Jr., and there just were not any other receiving targets worth throwing to. Rashard Higgins and David Njoku were responsible for 1,211 yards in 2018. In 2019, they both wound up in Freddie Kitchens’ doghouse and were responsible for only 96 yards. If you’re wondering why Mayfield seemed like a different quarterback in 2019 compared to 2018, look no further than that.
What Mayfield does best is process information in a split second, select a target and get the ball airborne immediately. That is what he was so good at in 2018. What we do not want to see is him locking onto Landry or OBJ immediately and waiting for his guy to get open for the deep ball. We saw too much of that in 2019.
The Browns have to be willing to forgive Mayfield for having a poor year in a dysfunctional offense like that. He has a cannon for an arm, but that does not mean it is beneath him to dink and dunk, use his tight ends and third and fourth wide receivers. If the Browns can get over their hangup about having to feed their two star receivers so much of the time, Mayfield will cut down his interceptions dramatically and put up much better numbers.
Building a Run-First Offensive Line
A run-first team is going to have to invest in some serious offensive tackles and not short change those positions. That is not what the Browns have done. They have center J.C. Tretter and Pro Bowl left guard Joel Bitonio, but weaknesses at right guard and both tackle positions.
Of course, in the NFL, it is not possible to simply go out and sign All-Pro free agents at every position. There are going to be some players at close to the NFL minimum. However, the Browns offense has their two biggest salaries at wide receiver.
The Browns tackles have been a lower priority, judging by their budget. Right tackle Chris Hubbard was the 28th highest paid tackle in the NFL and left tackle Greg Robinson was 31st. In other words, with 64 starting tackles league-wide, the Browns paid slightly above average at that position in 2019. Not only that, but both players underperformed. If the Browns had had better performances from those two positions, Chubb might still be running. A 2,000 yard season is not out of the question. He might have a shot at 2,000 rushing yards with the right support.
The Browns have developed a nasty habit of acquiring “tweener” linemen for the tackle position, or in other words players who are better suited at guard, but who might be able to play tackle too. Current right tackle Chris Hubbard is the smallest starter at his position in the NFL at 295 pounds. He would be way better off at guard or perhaps center, not at right tackle.
The Browns will probably have two new starting tackles in 2020. One will probably be acquired via free agency or trade, and the other may come from the NFL draft.
This year’s draft is rich with mutant offensive tackles. Most analysts have four players rated as first round picks at that position. They include:
- Jedrick Wills, Alabama (Junior, 6-foot-5, 320 pounds)
- Andrew Thomas, Georgia (Junior, 6-foot-5, 320 pounds)
- Mekhi Becton, Louisville (Junior, 6-foot-7, 369 pounds)
- Tristan Wirfs, Iowa (Junior, 6-foot-5, 322 pounds)
Wirfs’ power lifting feats and Combine performance are off the charts, though the scouts had generally preferred the top three of Wills, Thomas and Becton prior to the Combine. In any case, the Browns may find some help for a weak offensive line in the NFL Draft.
With an improved offensive line, it is not out of the question for the Browns to exceed 3,000 yards on the ground and challenge Baltimore as the NFL’s premier running team.
Wide receivers in a run-first offense
The prototypical cold weather receiver is the guy who can get open when the quarterback takes only a three-step drop and physical enough to fight for contested balls and win. Both Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr. fit that description very well. So does Rashard Higgins. He is not that fast and is not adept at outracing defensive backs for the bomb, but he can get open just enough for Mayfield to hit him with a bullet. Rather, he could do that in 2018. The Browns were in the process of running Higgins out of town, but perhaps with a new coach and general manager, they may find a way to bring him back.
On paper, the Browns may have over-invested in wide receivers, with the two highest salaries on offense belonging to Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr. However, there can be no major complaints about their performance, as both players gained over 1,000 receiving yards despite being injured and requiring surgery after the season.
In a run-first offense, Mayfield is still going to throw the bomb to OBJ and Landry, but the reason why it will work is that the other team has to field personnel groups to defend against the run, rather than automatically going to the nickel or dime formation a pass-happy unit.
In 2019 there was no No. 3 wide receiver of any consequence. Damion Ratley had 12 catches for 200 yards, with 64 of those yards coming on the last game of the year against Cincinnati. As for Higgins, he had only four catches for 55 yards despite having established great rapport with Mayfield the previous year with 39 grabs for 572 yards while playing in fewer than half the total snaps on offense.
IF the Browns overemphasized their two primary receivers in 2019, they still need to find extra wide receivers. That does not mean that they necessarily will trade Landry or Beckham because the talent is there and they may not get that much in trade. What they really need is the 2018 version of Higgins if they can bring him back or find a replacement.
The lack of alternative receiving targets was one of the biggest negative surprises of 2019.
Tight ends in a run-first offense
A run-first team has to have a quality tight end who is a good blocker, and they probably need two of them. The Browns had no one at tight end who put up numbers last year. Making a long story short, the Browns had five tight ends, none of whom were ranked in the top 32 by Pro Football Focus. That is, no one played at the level of a first-string tight end last year. The Browns did not invest much money in tight end talent either. Demetrius Harris was their first-string player, with a salary 31st in the NFL. If you get what you pay for, the Browns did not pay very much and got back even less last year.
There is no tight end that did much to enhance the running game, so this position is a problem. Harris has been cut and signed by the Chicago Bears. Similarly, Ricky Seals-Jones is a restricted free agent this year, meaning that if the Browns want to keep him, they can. However, Seals-Jones is a better receiver than blocker, much like David Njoku.
Njoku represents a major investment in terms of draft capital, as he was a first round draft pick and the Browns traded up to get him. He was banished by Kitchens, however, and ended up as the fifth-string tight end. That is very hard to do since many teams keep only three tight ends on the active roster.
IF Njoku’s blocking prevents him from being the every-down tight end, he might be a good counterpart to a blocking tight end in two-tight-end formations. His 639 receiving yards in 2018 prove that he can at least catch the ball. Earlier this offseason, I dared to suggest he might not be a tight end after all, and he might make a better contribution as an extra wide receiver.
Currently, Stephen Carlson looks like he might have a chance to develop into a run-blocking tight end and if so, he might wind up with the largest number of snaps in 2020. However, if you look at the grades assigned by Pro Football Focus, Carlson would rank 39th among tight ends, or about at the level of a good backup. The other Browns were significantly worse. Thus, it would not be a shock if the Browns draft a tight end in the early rounds.
In any case, a run-first team needs to be sure that it is strong on the offensive line and at tight end. The Browns had other priorities in 2019.