Cleveland Browns real timeline to extend Baker Mayfield

Exercise Baker’s fifth-year option for $30-plus million

As an alternative to a full-blown contract extension, the Browns can exercise a fifth-year option on Baker Mayfield. The Browns would make the commitment after the start of the 2021 NFL league year, or sometime after mid-March  2021 (Mayfield’s year four) and then pay him through 2022 (year five). The decision to pick up the option must be made by about a week after the college draft or about the first of May.  After that, it is no longer available.

Because Mayfield was a top ten draft pick, the value of the fifth-year option equals the average value of the top 10 quarterback salaries. In 2020 the fifth-year option was worth $24.9 million according to ESPN, and it is going up in 2021 — a lot. Patrick Mahomes and Matty Ryan pegged the meter this season, so that option will be worth over $30 million, pending some COVID-economy-related adjustment.

That is a lot of money and does not quite result in a long-term commitment. That is, it’s a one-year extension rather than a five-year extension. In a relationship, it’s kind of like agreeing to go to bed, but not agreeing on what to do about children that might arise from the partnership.

The Houston Texans exercised a fifth-year option on Deshaun Watson in 2019, which would have covered the 2021 season. In Watson’s case, the option cost “only” $17.3 million. You could say that was the end of the pre-Mahomes era. However, that option was really to buy time to negotiate a larger deal, and Watson is now on contract through 2025, though he has a potential out in 2024.

But back to Mayfield. The 2022 fifth-year option would hardly make sense unless Mayfield’s perceived value skyrockets to the $40 Million dollar level; i.e., close to the Matt Ryan or Patrick Mahomes level. Otherwise, this doesn’t seem to be an attractive option, and the team would be better off choosing between a long-term deal or cutting ties altogether.

He could further be franchised in 2023 (year 6), though this too comes at a very hefty price because of the recent steep rise in quarterback salaries. In this case, the franchise tag is based on the top five salaries at the position, meaning that it will be heavily influenced by Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, and probably Lamar Jackson by that time. Look for a franchise tag value in the range of $40 million by that time. Not a bargain. They might as well cave in to the most outrageous of agent demands if that is the only alternative that they are willing to consider.

There is also the possibility to franchise tag Mayfield for a second year in 2024 (year 7), in which case he gets a 20 percent pay raise, which would actually propel him into the Mahomes level, close to $50 million dollars. That sounds even crazier. That second franchise tag actually happened in 2017 when Dan Snyder and Kirk Cousins could not come up with a long term deal, and it wound up making Kirk Cousins the third-highest paid quarterback in the NFL, behind Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer. That was a bit unpleasant for both sides and should be avoided if at all possible.