R.J. Bell posts a shocking stat about Baker Mayfield

R.J. Bell’s stat says Baker Mayfield is best in the NFL when the game is close

R.J. Bell, co-host of Straight Outta Vegas on Fox Sports Radio posted a controversial stat about Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns. Straight Outta Vegas is an awesome sports talk show because sports bettors actually know something about sports (much more than this writer, that is for sure), and they can also talk intelligently about mathematics and statistics because that is what they use to make a living.

In any case, one of the current metrics that is thought to be useful in evaluating quarterbacks is quarterback efficiency (LINK HERE) the ratio of Expected Points Added (EPA) on the y-axis compared to completion percentage above expected completion percentage. As expected, Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson are up at the top. That is not a surprise. Derek Carr is up there also which is a bit of a surprise.

This analyst is skeptical of what the stat really proves, or indeed whether it is any better than the old passer rating. Nevertheless, the quarterback is supposed to help the team score and complete passes so the combination of the two is probably good.

However, R.J. Bell asked himself, what if we throw out the performance at “garbage time?” In other words, let’s say that the performance should not count in a game in which the outcome isn’t in doubt. So he re-ran the numbers, but with the aid of a number-crunching computer, threw out the stats when the chances of winning are less than 20 percent or greater than 80 percent.

The number one quarterback in the NFL in 2020 when the outcome is still in doubt? Why that would be Baker Mayfield of the Browns.

No doubt, R. J. Bell will be the most hated analyst on Twitter for posting this. In fact, the responses on Twitter are hilariously entertaining. People cannot believe that the Browns have played well in any of their games or prevailed in any close games. Others seem to believe that the Browns are in last place with a losing record. Mainly the problem is that Bell said something good about Baker Mayfield.

So, professor, you may ask, does this stat actually prove anything? The answer here is that we ought to be careful about overreacting. This is a totally new stat, and we are being asked to draw a surprising conclusion right out of the box, although it does have a certain logical appeal. Mayfield’s worst performances occurred in blowout losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and other than that he has been pretty good.

Intuitively, a good quarterback is more about “crunch time” rather than performing in blowout wins or losses. The play calls are way different in those games compared to a close game, so the quarterback skill set may well be somewhat different.

No single stat tells everything about a quarterback, and stats are only one tool to evaluate players. The eyeball test from an experienced football scout is probably more trustworthy than simple numbers. Based purely on the numbers, the Browns would have given up on Mayfield after the 6-10 season in 2019.  But numbers do not always tell the whole story.

So, the R.J. Bell “Garbage-Time-Corrected Quarterback Efficiency” is cool because it features Mayfield on top, pending the outcome of the Raiders game, but it is probably a little early to place a bet on him for NFL MVP.