Baker Mayfield may no longer be the Cleveland Browns guy
Through nine games in the 2020 season, Baker Mayfield hasn’t exactly imbued confidence in his long-term prospects, despite leading the Cleveland Browns to a 6-3 record. He has seven games left to prove he’s worthy of his $26 million-plus fifth-year option, and in order to do that, he’ll have to improve his decision-making, accuracy, and consistency, things that have plagued him for the past two seasons outside of three quarters against the Cincinnati Bengals. No one should be advocating for his replacement, and perhaps he’ll go on a tear these final seven weeks and prove that he’s a franchise QB.
For now, the Browns have to at least entertain the idea of moving on from Mayfield this offseason, if given the opportunity. The 2021 quarterback class is headlined by two elite prospects in Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields, neither of which Cleveland has any shot at landing. However, the rest of the class is shaping up quite nicely, and there are five names, in particular, to watch if Cleveland were to commit to a new signal-caller.
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
Dual-threat QBs are the new prototype in today’s game, and Desmond Ridder, while he needs plenty of work, fits the mold. He has the Bearcats at 7-0, and in the top 10 of the AP poll for the first time in a long time. He’s 6-4 215 pounds with a strong arm and very good running ability.
He’s shown accuracy to all levels of the field and throws well on the move. It would be very interesting to see what Kevin Stefanski could do with a QB with the skillset of Ridder. Ridder seems like he’ll end up as a Day 2 pick, so the Browns would roll with Mayfield for 2021 while giving Ridder time to sit and learn before taking over in 2022.
Kyle Trask, Florida
Calling Kyle Trask’s numbers impressive is the definition of an understatement. He’s played in six games this season, and has thrown for over 2,100 yards with 28 touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s a pocket passer at 6-5 240 pounds with limited mobility and an average arm, but it’s hard to argue with the production he’s put up.
Trask is smart player who reads the field well and doesn’t lock onto one receiver. He does need a good amount of work done to his mechanics, as he lacks the natural arm strength, touch, and athleticism to overcome when things aren’t working in sync.
It may sound odd, but even with Trask’s numbers over the past two seasons, his ceiling at the next level is limited, and that’s why, in spite of being in the Heisman running, he’s not considered a part of the first or second tier of QB prospects this season, and that’s unlikely to change. If one was simply box score scouting, Trask would be a surefire first-round pick. But the tape tells a different story. His throws seem to stay in the air forever, and it remains to be seen whether he has enough zip to succeed in the NFL.
All of these questions are why it’s difficult to see Trask going in the first round. But like Ridder, he could be an option for the Browns if he starts to fall down the board on Day 2. In a heavy run and play action-based scheme, Trask could be effective. The mental aspect of the position is so important, and he seems to be well ahead in that area.
Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Another dual-threat QB, Trey Lance is hoping to follow in Carson Wentz’s footsteps and be the next Bisons passer to go in the first round. In 2019, Lance attempted 287 passes; 28 of them went for touchdowns, and he wasn’t intercepted a single time (some were dropped, but that’s still impressive). Even in a lesser conference and with a high volume of shorter throws, that is anything but typical. He is a well-built 6-3 225 pounds with good running ability; he totaled 1,100 yards and 14 scores on the ground in 2019.
Lance has all the tools you want in a QB from a physical standpoint, but he is far from a finished product, and he’ll have just one game of tape in 2020 to evaluate, which is less than ideal. His mechanics and accuracy are inconsistent, and North Dakota State ran a simplistic offense that didn’t ask Lance to think a whole lot. One year of tape plus poor level of competition plus raw equals risky.
Lance is a project, and one that the Browns will probably not be willing to invest in, unless for some reason Lance fell out of the first round, which seems highly unlikely. The fifth-year option will be too valuable for a team to pass up. The Baltimore Ravens stopped Lamar Jackson’s slide in 2018, and if Lance were to begin falling, someone else would stop him. Perhaps the Browns will be a team looking to trade down with another organization wanting Lance.
Mac Jones, Alabama
The QB on this list that the Browns would most likely end up with is Alabama’s Mac Jones. He impressed in 2019 after taking over for the injured Tua Tagovailoa, and has taken his game to another level this season. Jones has thrown for nearly 2,200 yards, 16 touchdowns, and two interceptions in six games this year.
He’s a solid 6-3 215 pounds who operates from within the pocket and only from within the pocket. He doesn’t have a lot of mobility and will not add anything to the run game. His arm is good, but not great, and there’s always the concern that his success is due to his situation.
Those are the negatives, which the positives far outweigh. Jones is decisive and accurate to all parts of the field, and has been especially effective throwing deep. He’s smart and efficient, and while he may not have the elite physical gifts of some of the other prospects in this class, he doesn’t lack anything a passer needs to be successful. Jones is almost like a smaller, more developed Kyle Trask, which is a good thing.
He could easily end up as a first-round pick around the area of the draft where the Browns are likely to select. Kirk Cousins executed Kevin Stefanski’s offense very well with the Minnesota Vikings in 2019, and Jones seems like he’d be able to do a similar job. If the Browns were staring Jones in the face in the first round, they’d have to think long and hard about taking him.
Zach Wilson, BYU
There has been no bigger surprise this season than the emergence of Zack Wilson. Simply put, he’s been incredible. Wilson was solid in 2018 and 2019, but he was on very few radars heading into 2020. Every week there’s a new highlight-reel play from him, and the comparisons to Patrick Mahomes are inevitable, although Mahomes was not nearly this impressive and consistent in college.
Wilson has good size at 6-3 and 210 pounds, great mobility, and pretty much everything else about him is elite. He has a cannon arm, pinpoint accuracy to all levels, and the ability to throw accurately from different angles, bases, and arm slots. His improvisation skills are fantastic, and he’s also entirely capable of sitting in the pocket and tearing a defense to shreds. His mechanics are very good, far better than Mahomes’ coming out, and Wilson’s release is lighting-quick.
The only concerns with Wilson are the level of competition and injury history. He had surgery on a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder after his freshman year, and then had surgery on his throwing shoulder as a sophomore.
Wilson should be seen as a top-10 prospect right now, so it’s all but impossible he’d fall to the Browns. However, the team may find themselves in a similar position to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2017 – a playoff-caliber roster in need of a franchise quarterback. A Mahomes-esque move-up would be surprising for this front office, but it is a possibility.
The Browns shouldn’t want to move on from Baker Mayfield right now, but they need to keep the possibility in mind based on how the third-year signal-caller has played this season. There will be options to replace him in the 2021 NFL Draft, depending on how aggressive the team wants to be.