Baker Mayfield and the 2018 QB class will get paid this offseason

QB Class of 2018 (Mayfield, Allen, Jackson): $TBD million/year

Okay, so much will the 2018 quarterback class be worth? Logically they should get paid even more than the previous classes, but remember that Covid has caused revenues and the projected salary cap to go down for 2021. It’s an 11 percent drop or rolling the numbers back to the level of Goff and Wentz.

Ultimately, the value of the contract may depend on “what have you done for me lately?” If the team goes to the Super Bowl or goes deep in the playoffs, the quarterback who leads that team is due for a contract similar to Deshaun Watson.

The only reason to not reach that level is the Covid impact on the salary cap, which, as mentioned previously, is going to set the cap back about 11 percent to the level of about two years ago. Hence management may try to hold the line at about the level of Goff and Wentz, even if the level of talent is more in line with Watson.

Mayfield’s agent, Tom Miles, has every right to pound the table and point out, “hey, my guy is way more valuable than Wentz.”

Andrew Berry will reply, “Yeah, I know. But at the time, the Eagles thought they were getting the league MVP. So we think an offer of Wentz money is appropriate for a guy that we respect like an MVP.”

That same argument will be applied by the Ravens to Lamar Jackson and by the Bills to Josh Allen. Allen, as  a Pro Bowl selection and generally in the top five in the power rankings for quarterbacks, stands to have the largest contract.

Jackson, as a former league MVP should be right up there also, and Mayfield is generally in the low teens in the power rankings now. But let’s wait until the Super Bowl is over before giving each quarterback a final grade. For now, it’s enough to say that they all figure to be in the top 10, salary-wise.

To some extent they have to be economists and predict whether NFL revenues are going to rise again. Or are they going to stay low even after the Covid-19  threat is reduced via vaccines and other safety measures? What about the increased involvement of the NFL in politics? Will that help or hurt revenues? How much salary can each team truly afford to pay the quarterback?

This author guesses that the sports economy will continue to suck for a few years, or at least there will be a perception that this is the case as Mayfield’s contract comes up for renewal. As a best guess, the Browns will sign a Covid-influenced deal that is closer to Goff’s ($33.5 million/year)  than Watson’s ($39 million/year).

However, if the Browns go deep in the playoffs, then Mayfield’s number could approach Watson’s. They may back-load the later years of the contract when the NFL’s economic woes will hopefully be resolved.

Please check back after the Super Bowl to see how the three quarterbacks compare at that time.