Cleveland Browns will benefit from upcoming free agent glut

Renegotiating a non-guaranteed contract is often good for both sides

Not to pick on a specific individual, but suppose some star player in the last year of his contract is getting paid $12 million a year, but none of it is guaranteed. Because football is a risky business, it is better to have some portion of the money guaranteed.

In a normal economy, assuming $12 million per year seems to be about fair value, the player and the team would normally sign up for a 3-year deal for about $36 M, with 50 percent guaranteed or so. It might look like this:

                                       2021          2022      2023        TTL

Guaranteed                      $6             $6            $6        $18

Non-Guaranteed            $2             $6          $10        $18

Cap Charge                       $8          $12           $16       $36

Take-home pay             $20            $6           $10       $36

Typically, the owner writes a big check upfront, but the bonus is spread out over the lifetime of the deal. The player gets an insane amount of money in that first year, while at the same time the salary cap records a discount. The team charges the expenses in different years than the player actually gets the checks, but it all adds up at the end of the deal. If the player is cut or traded, however, the bonus charges move up to the year that the deal is made.

Thus, even without getting a haircut, refinancing can result in a decent discount for the team, about 33 percent in this example.

But 2021 is not a typical year. This season, a player with a $12 million dollar salary might very well get gouged by 20 percent or more. He might end up signing for $9 million per year with $15  million guaranteed, say, and the totals might look like this:

Hypothetical multiyear deal with pay cut  (in millions of dollars) 

                                         2021          2022      2023      TTL

Guaranteed                      $5              $5            $5       $15

Non-Guaranteed            $1              $4            $7       $12

Cap Charge                       $6              $9          $12       $27

Take-home pay             $16              $4            $7       $27

Salary-cap-wise, the team comes away with a 50 percent discount in 2021.

So although the player bonus allows him to still do very well in 2021, his lifestyle may have to change in 2022. The Ferrari may have to be traded in for a Corvette and that sort of thing.

It could be even worse for the players, however, given that several teams are so over-committed for 2021. Fans may have to start Go-Fund-Mes in order for players to continue living in the manner that they have become accustomed to.

Don’t be shocked if Andrew Berry negotiates lower salaries even for highly respected veterans like Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Jr., Joel Bitonio, J.C. Tretter, and others. This isn’t due to a lack of respect or any reflection of dissatisfaction with their level of play or character. It’s simply a reflection of the imbalance in 2021 between football players and salaries, and the lack of revenues in the sport.

As a team, the Browns will be successful, but 2021 will be a tough year financially. As a fan, I do not care that much about the owners, but I want to see the players get all the money they can. For their sake, the game needs to be stable and successful.

Players and owners will have to work together like never before in order to restore the game to the status it enjoyed pre-Covid. It won’t happen overnight.