Year two in system for Baker Mayfield may be better than Aaron Rodgers in year one

Is it really the case that Aaron Rodgers is a sure-fire guarantee to wins the Conference Championship game and go to the Super Bowl? Here’s an argument that Baker Mayfield is the best option still.

Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL, so definitely draft him for your fantasy football team, but acquiring him for the Cleveland Browns — and paying him $40 million a year while giving up multiple first-round draft picks for the privilege of doing so — might not improve the team as much as you think.

One could get the impression from the sports talk shows these days, that Aaron Rodgers is the MVP every year, but this is not so.

So, at the risk of sounding stupid (it’s never stopped me before), why is it that Aaron Rodgers was a superstar in 2020 (passer rating 121.5), but in 2019 he was only very good (passer rating 95.4)?

One reason is that quarterbacks are human beings who take time to function in new offenses. This isn’t fantasy football. You cannot just move quarterbacks from one team to another and have them perform at the same level automatically.

They don’t learn everything in a few months in summer camp for the coach to just push a button and have the player perform. That’s why Baker Mayfield has started slowly in all three of his seasons with a new coach and new offensive coordinator, and gotten better as the season has progressed.

Rodgers’s huge success came in his second year, not his first year with coach Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. It’s totally unrealistic to expect Rodgers to have second-year success in his first year with a new team. You might argue that you are hoping he gets it figured out by January like Tom Brady did, which is a fair point. But don’t expect gaudy regular season stats,

If, hypothetically, Rodgers were to come to Cleveland, you might guess he would have a shot at putting up MVP-type numbers in 2022, his second year with the team, rather than year one.

Let’s compare Rodgers’ first year under LaFleur and Hackett (i.e., 2019)  with Mayfield’s first year under Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt (2020). Both teams made the playoffs, and the quarterback performances were actually very similar.

First of all, the passer rating was actually almost identical, with Mayfield, getting a slight edge, 95.9 to 95.4 for Rodgers. Touchdowns were exactly tied, with both gunslingers connecting for 26.

Mayfield had a very slight edge in completion percentage, 62.8% to 62.0%. Yards per completion, actually that favors Mayfield a little more strongly, 11.7  versus 11.3 for Rodgers. That’s a bit counter-intuitive, particularly since you would think the Browns are more of a tight end, possession-type offense.

Rodgers gets a major edge in yards, 4,002 to 3,563. Remember, however, that the Browns have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and keeping the ball on the ground more often makes some sense.  Still, the Packers were not helpless on the ground, not with the other Aaron, Aaron Jones gaining 1,084 yards rushing and 1,558 yards from scrimmage.

They also got another 460 rushing yards from Jamaal Williams. They were not weaklings in the ground game, but nevertheless, with the Browns, Rodgers might be obliged to hand the ball off a few more times than he did at Green Bay.

Rodgers made huge strides forward under Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Nobody is saying that Mayfield is going to become the league MVP in his second year with Stefanski. That’s not the point.

The salient point is that if Rodgers blows it up and starts over with a new coach and new offensive coordinator, new teammates, and new environment, there will be an adjustment period. The major saving grace for a hypothetical move to Cleveland is that he does know Alex Van Pelt who spent time as quarterback coach in Green Bay from 2014-2018 under Mike McCarthy. Presumably, that is viewed positively by Rodgers, though McCarthy was ultimately fired for not working well enough with Rodgers.

Working with Van Pelt was just one factor,  of course.  Nevertheless, Rodgers had two years with a passer rating over 100, and three years with a passer rating under 100.

Working with Stefanski and Van Pelt in Cleveland, year one is more likely to resemble his first-year performance with LaFleur’s new system instead of his second-year, MVP-level performance. Rodgers is one of the greatest to ever play the game and might certainly win MVP again. But it’s not as likely in his first year with a new team.