Year two in system for Baker Mayfield may be better than Aaron Rodgers in year one

Do quarterbacks have fair value?

Somehow, there has to be a concept of fair value for quarterbacks. That is, there is some point at which the team decides to walk away.

That was the case with Kirk Cousins and Washington.  Washington decided to franchise tag him twice ($23.9 million in 2017) but then decided not to make him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL with a third franchise tag, allowing him to leave as a free agent. The Vikings decided to outbid 31 other teams, including the Browns, and pay him on a three-year deal for $84 million which made him the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history as of 2018.

Overall it was a somewhat better deal than Washington was offering. That’s fair value. Both sides were happy. Signing him for less would have been a bargain for the team, but paying more would have been a waste of money.

Now, just hypothetically, what if the Vikes had had buyer’s remorse after a while, and had decided to offer to trade Cousins to the Browns and suppose you were the general manager. For the sake of argument, let’s say they could transfer the entire $84 million contract, so we won’t worry about the bonus rules. “Hey, Browns, we’ll trade you Kirk Freaking Cousins! What a deal! We only want three first-round picks for him!  What do you say?”

Oh boy! Of course, you hand over the three first-round picks, right? You just picked up a tremendous Pro Bowl quarterback. The Haslams will be so proud of you! But wait a minute.

A few weeks earlier you were bidding on Cousins and your bid was just a few million short and there were NO draft picks involved. Now you are willing to pay a few million extra and pay three first-round draft picks and you think it is a good deal?  What has happened?

Flash forward three years. You have Cousins, but that is about all you have. No first-round draft picks for the past three years. This would be a team in decay.

In the same way, the 37-year-old Rodgers, if he were granted free agency, would probably be worth Dak Prescott money for four years, let’s say four years, $160 million. But why would he be worth four years, $160 million, and three first-round draft picks? Nobody can possibly be worth that much.

The problem is that the concept of fair value has been lost. Fans and even many sportswriters (and maybe the Packers front office) think that the Packers are entitled to get 100% of Rodgers’ fair value in cash AND in draft picks. That is, they think he is now worth 200% of what he was worth a month ago. This is cuckoo. He cannot be worth all the cash and all the draft picks.

Let’s get back to the real world for a moment. Any kind of deal is made complicated by the salary cap, and it is more confusing this year — even for the professionals — because the rules have been de facto loosened this season.

Teams are permitted to spread bonus money for five years even if the expected tenure is only one or two years. This is crazy accounting that the NFL is allowing, possibly because of the contraction in salary cap caused by Covid-19, and perhaps it may be changed next year. In the meantime, confusion reigns.

Anyway, it looks like the Packers incur immediate salary-cap charges of $38 million if they trade Rodgers this year. The new team would be on the hook for $67 million over three seasons, which would probably get renegotiated to be in line with Dak Prescott’s deal; i.e., about $40 million per season, with a discount on the first season. Presumably, it would be a very complicated transaction for both teams as well as the player.

Nevertheless, some team will probably talk itself into making Rodgers the highest paid QB in the NFL, while also paying a king’s ransom to Green Bay. They will trade some big draft choices, and wind up cutting a few star players to squeeze in Rodgers’ enormous salary under the Cap.

The new team is highly unlikely to be the Browns. Baker Mayfield is very likely to improve over this 2020 performance this season. Rodgers is less likely to repeat his MVP season in his first year with a new team.

Thus, 2021 Browns would probably be better off with Baker Mayfield in his second year with Stefanski and Van Pelt, compared to the hypothetical option of having Aaron Rodgers as a first-year convert at the same position. No doubt the Browns have thought about all this and decided it makes little sense.

This Rodgers to Cleveland move is so not going to happen.

Baker Mayfield is the first-string quarterback of the Cleveland Browns.