Have the Cleveland Browns closed the gap with the Baltimore Ravens?
Baker and Lamar have one thing in common: they are unfairly criticized in the national media, and it is gross.
Do you Baltimore guys know what you have? I have been saying since his rookie year, he is the greatest two-way threat in NFL history, and he is the best quarterback at age 21 in NFL history.
Prior to Jackson the best starting record for a 21 year was 6-5 by David Woodley for the 1980 Miami Dolphins. Jackson went 7-1, demolishing the previous standard. He is two years younger than Baker Mayfield, so if he had completed his full college eligibility this would be only his second year, so quit harping on all the things he has not accomplished.
I don’t believe I have said one bad thing about Lamar Jackson in his entire career, unless it is this: he fits a 12-personnel-oriented, spread-based offense rather than the Mike Martz run-and-shoot, or as Buddy Ryan used to call it, the chuck-and-duck.
In Cleveland, we have persistent fantasies of a palace coup in which we depose the King, Baker Mayfield, and replace him with some pretender, like Deshaun Watson or even Aaron Rodgers, giving up three or four first-round draft picks in the process. That is the plan of the lunatic fringe.
In Baltimore, the fringe wants to shut down the two-tight-end formation, and swarm the field with wide receivers, transforming Jackson into a Johnny Unitas-style pocket passer. No kidding, that is what they want.
To some extent, the front office appears to be listening, drafting two wide receivers in 2019 (Marquise Brown in the first round and Miles Boykin in the third round), one-third rounder in 2020 (Devin Duvernay), and going back two more in 2021 including another first-rounder in Bateman) plus Tylan Wallace in Round 4. That’s five wide receivers in three years plus Sammy Watkins to teach them how to talk trash.
That’s totally awesome, Ravens fans. What really makes us Browns fans choke on our dog biscuits is Jackson and Dobbins running behind two tight ends or else behind All-Pro fullback Patrick Ricard. Go ahead and start all the wide receivers you want, because I would rather not see Ricard and the tight ends, to be perfectly honest. Draft a few more wide receivers next year too, please.
I see the Ravens getting away from what got them to where they are. Getting rid of an All-Pro tackle who stands 6-8 and weighs 344 pounds is not a good idea. Replacing him with a guy who weighs 277 pounds probably intended to foster Jackson’s growth as pocket passer.
I’m just an observer for the enemy, so don’t listen to me, I’m not your friend. However, Jackson scared me more as the greatest two-way threat of all time. If you want him to be Unitas 2.0, great. We’ll take that.
Once I made a similar comment and some Baltimore fan blasted me for criticizing Jackson, but if the worst insult he ever endures is that some Browns writer called him the greatest dual-threat quarterback of all time, that’s not such a bad insult. It might even be construed as a compliment. It’s not clear whether the front office wants to build upon what he brings to the table, however.
So good luck with the run and shoot or whatever it is that you guys are building out there.
What does all this mean? The Browns have added talent through free agency while the Ravens have lost a few major players on defense. If an oddsmaker were handicapping the two teams on a neutral field, the Browns defense would probably be worth 2-3 points per game (that is, the opponent scoring would decrease by that amount), while at the same time the Ravens defense will probably allow about two points more per game.
Although the impact of the draft is typically not huge in year one, the Browns probably upgraded about three positions via the draft. The Ravens added to an already overloaded wide receiver corps, meaning they will field more single-tight-end formations in 2021 in order to use all of these great wide receivers. The Browns probably helped themselves through the draft more than the Ravens did.
The answer to the original question is that yes, the Browns are Ravens are at parity. Their neutral field team. To make a long story short, the Browns have added players on defense and drafted a bit better than the Ravens. The Ravens have lost some very good players on defense.
What’s missing from the analysis is the resilience of the two organizations. That is, the Ravens have always been able to pull players from a body orifice as undrafted free agents or the waiver wire. Given the chaos in the college game last season, there is a very good chance that a resourceful organization will be able find undrafted free agents or recycled NFL minimum salary veterans who can really help them.
This season will be a great test to see whether they can continue to work miracles in the post-Ozzie era, because they are short of cap space and cannot simply spend their way to success.
The view here that the Browns have been improving in this area as well. You need to have the ex-players who understand talent, but you also need the Ivy League whiz kids who can figure out how to write contracts and determine value and translate 3-cone-drills into predictions of success or failure. We will see which organization outperforms the other in picking up players who have not been drafted at all, or who have been waived.
Overall, there is essentially no difference between the two teams as they are now constituted. We know that the future holds unpredictable injuries, suspensions, fluke play, and lucky bounces, which is why this fan does not bet against the professionals who get the benefit of an extra 10% cushion.
There is a lot to like about what the Browns are doing and the approach that the Ravens have taken to acquiring new talent invites skepticism.
These two teams are roughly at parity within the limits of this amateur’s ability to handicap them. This is the way that they appear based on the above discussion
Average Points
Offense Defense PW%
2020 Browns end of season neutral field average performance: 27.5 25.1 55.3%
2020 Ravens end of season neutral field average performance 27.3 18.5 71.5%
2021 Browns projected neutral field average performance: 28.0 23.0 61.4%
Next. 3 Browns players who could come back at a new position. dark
2021 Ravens projected neutral field average performance 27.0 21.5 63.2%