Cleveland Browns: Far too early to bury rivalry with Steelers

Steelers defense loses Dupree, Hilton

On defense, OLB edge rusher Bud Dupree is getting monstrous dollars from the Tennessee Titans, by virtue of an $82 million dollar contract. The impact that this has on Pittsburgh’s defense is controversial.

Some feel that Dupree is a superstar, others claim he is overrated. The expectations have been crazy from the get-go when Dupree had a monster Combine with a 4.56-second 40-yard dash; 42-inch vertical, 11-foot-six-inch broad jump. Dupree has been productive (39.5 career sacks). It is somewhat puzzling that his grades from PFF have been very good but not outstanding. What’s up with that?

Some observers felt that Dupree’s job in the Pittsburgh defense was to act as a disruptor, which allowed T.J. Watt to finish plays. The way PFF grades (at least as I understand their system), if one defender is double teamed and held in check, and the other defender successfully makes the play, the higher grade goes to the player who made the play.

Anyway, high grades or not, after Dupree went down with an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) last season, Watt’s productivity decreased significantly. That was another event that coincided with the Steelers starting to lose football games.

He may not be worth every penny of his $82 million dollars, but he is a very valuable, and his loss is much more damaging than the loss of the offensive linemen. When the Steelers had a healthy Dupree, they were 11-0. They are highly unlikely to repeat that feat or come close without him, but there may be some gas left in the tank.

Mike Hilton is also a very competent starter who will be missed, as he moves down the road to Cincinnati. Hilton is getting a big payday, with four years and $24 million. Once again, it’s debatable whether the Bengals have overpaid or not, but Hilton is a quality corner. The Steelers suddenly seem a bit short.

So, how much does the loss of two major defenders move the point spread? Not enough to cause the Steelers to become a losing team.

In 2020 they outscored their opponents by 104 points during the regular season, 416 to 312.

Their Pythagorean win percentage was (PF^2.37)/(PF^2.37 + PA^2.37) = .664 or 10.6 wins (they actually won 11).

On a per-game basis, their average game was 26.0 points for, and 19.5 points against.

However, checking their 2021 over/under on wynnbet.com, their projected win total (over/under) is 8.5, meaning that the oddsmakers see them as a .500 team. To get to that level, the guess here is that the oddsmakers heavily dinged them for losing Bud Dupree and Hilton. The defense was totally different without Dupree last season.

Probably this author is less upset about the offensive line than the mainstream. Again, it’s not that they are so great this year, but they haven’t actually gotten any worse, either.

There is also some age risk attached to Big Ben. Even though the chances are good that he can play all 17 games, it’s not 100%, it’s maybe more like 60%. They have to account for some potential difference between Ben and Mason Rudolph.

Is Najee Harris an upgrade over James Conner? General managers hate running backs because they don’t last long, but oddsmakers only care about one season at a time.

One more thing. Eight or nine wins in the AFC North is a lot. There is zero doubt that the AFC North was the best division in the AFC last season. As a division, the AFC North won 38 games.

The AFC West, which supposed to be so awesome because they have the Kansas City Chiefs, won all of 34 games. The AFC East, so beloved by the national media, won 32 games, and the South won only 27.

The Browns/Steelers rivalry takes place in a rough neighborhood. A 9-8 season in the AFC North would be pretty good, especially if all four teams are at .500 or close to it this season.