Joe Banner contract analysis for Baker Mayfield other QBs is must-read

Joe Banner, former President of the Cleveland Browns published a terrific piece on future contracts for the 2018 quarterback class in The 33rd Team, including one on Baker Mayfield

Joe Banner, who in this writer’s opinion is one of the sharpest executives the Cleveland Browns have ever had, has published an analysis of the contract situations of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Baker Mayfield in The 33rd Team.

Kudos also to famed Browns beat writer Terry Pluto for calling attention to it, and both of these gentlemen provide must-read commentary.

Banner has been in the hot seat and can speak with experience. It’s just common sense that the teams have to get these deals done, and the general managers for the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns certainly understand that they can not give a vote of no confidence to the quarterback and expect the team to have confidence in the quarterback or the organization.

The fan base is less convinced, however. Banner can explain it better than anyone else in no-nonsense terms.

"“So why would any of these top three guys step on the field without a new deal? They are not making much money right now under rookie deals and are probably walking away from at least $80-100 million in guarantees. It is a massive risk for all three of these guys as the offseason progresses” — Joe Banner, The 33rd Team"

Translation: the Browns are not going to play football without paying the quarterback.

You can argue all you want (Steelers fans pretending to be Browns fans usually add “defund-the-quarterback” commentary below in order to amuse themselves), but if a professional like Joe Banner says the quarterback needs to be paid, there really cannot be any serious argument against it.

Banner suggests that if he were Josh Allen’s agent, he would accept a deal in the range of $38-$39 million or possibly even a bit higher. Lamar Jackson should get a similar amount. He suggests that Baker Mayfield may not be as accomplished as the other two, but may get only slightly less than Jackson and Allen, given that the Browns may not have much leverage.

Banner’s numbers for Mayfield are about $4 million higher than what this author had projected last week, though I had Allen at above $40 million (i.e., second highest in the NFL behind Patrick Mahomes) and Jackson at about the same level that Banner suggests.

The rationale is similar, however. Jackson has significantly more recognition in the form of an MVP Award, one First-Team All-Pro selection, an NFL Top 100 selection, and a Pro-Bowl selection.

Mayfield was selected to the All-Rookie Team and was an NFL Top 100 selection. The net result is that Jackson probably deserves a somewhat larger deal, but there is zero doubt about the position of either one in their team’s respective depth chart. They are the starters, and there is zero controversies.

Of course, I defer to Banner’s superior judgment concerning the numbers. On the other hand, it’s kind of cool that on average we came up with about the same numbers (i.e., I had Allen higher and Mayfield lower, with Jackson about the same, slightly below the Dak Prescott level).

Prescott is not actually better than Jackson, but he was about to turn into a free agent due to bungling by Team Jerry Jones (my comment, not Banner’s), who did not lock up Prescott early. Instead, they franchise-tagged him and paid him more cash last year than any other team paid their quarterback.

That’s why the dollar value of Prescott’s contract is so high (higher than Banner’s estimate for the three quarterbacks) and yet another reason why it is not a good idea to emulate Jerry Jones. If Jerry Jones were to jump in Lake Erie, would you do that, too?

The teams deserve to get a discount by signing the long-term extension now rather than waiting till the quarterback becomes a free agent.  This should be obvious.

Joe Banner, let it not be forgotten, is a law professor at Villanova University and also provides insightful commentary on politics, the world situation, and many other topics. He developed much of the methodology for rebuilding the Browns franchise (i.e., accumulating draft picks and salary cap capital), though it was probably not intended to be quite so draconian as the way it was later implemented by Sashi Brown. It’s not that he was mistake-free, but nevertheless, he does not get enough credit for his contributions.

As an author and commentator, Banner tells you what he really thinks and believes, rather than providing fluff. You may not always agree with him, but you get honest opinions and that is all any fan can really ask for.

I used to follow Professor Banner on Twitter, but eventually, he got mad at me for something and now I’m blocked! I thought I was his biggest fan, not only for football also for politics and economics. That can happen in this business. But he’s still deserving of the greatest respect even if he is not a fan of my sportswriting.

If you were not sure whether the right move was to negotiate an extension for Mayfield or not, you have an authoritative opinion from Professor Banner backing the advisability of doing it now, and you have some decent numbers.

If you did not like my numbers from last week, you have Banner’s now.