1. Point differential
Some analysts hold a less-than-rosy view of the Browns heading into 2021 because of a single stat; point differential. Despite their 11-5 record, the Browns finished with a -11 PD, the only team with a winning record with a negative PD. For reference, the Baltimore Ravens were +165.
That’s quite a difference between two teams in the same division with the same record. This would seem to indicate that the Browns got extremely lucky, were a worse team than their record, and are due to regress towards the mean . However, judging the Browns by their PD is irresponsible, because that number is incredibly misleading.
Cleveland was dismantled in their first meetings with the Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, losing by a combined 76-13. They also ran away from the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys before the defense let the opponent back into the game, at least by the final score. And these were all in just the first six games.
The Browns also dominated the Tennessee Titans in Week 13 and the Steelers in the Wild Card round, but that wouldn’t be apparent by the box score.
With a massively improved defense and a full offseason to implement systems in-person, that Week 1 disaster should not repeat itself, and the Browns will be the ones blowing teams out in 2021.