Projecting Cleveland Browns 2021 offensive output

What are the prospects for improvement in 2021?

Last week Dawg Pound Daily covered the major personnel moves on defense, and their likely impact in 2021. There were several major additions including safety John Johnson cornerback Troy Hill, defensive ends Jadeveon Clowney and Takk McKinley, linebacker Anthony Walker, Jr., defensive tackles Andrew Billings and Malik Jackson, among others. Draft picks Greg Newsome and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah may be day one starters as well.

On offense, the Browns made no major free-agent additions, waving good-bye to second-string tackle Kendall Lamm. It is also anticipated that they may also lose wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge, running back D’Ernest Johnson, and Chris Hubbard due to salary cap moves.

Additions include sixth-round draft pick Demetric Felton from UCLA, a hybrid running back and slot receiver; third-round wide receiver Anthony Schwartz from Auburn; and fourth-round tackle James Hudson from Cincinnati. All of these players are long-term investments who are not likely to be first-string in 2021.

This is the first time that the Browns have had the same coach, same offensive coordinator, and same quarterback since 2002 when they had Butch Davis, Bruce Arians, and Tim Couch and went to the playoffs. We will see if having two years in the same system makes a difference or not.

We will also see if players develop in their second year or not. Jedrick Wills, Nick Harris, and Donovan Peoples-Jones were 21-year-old rookies last season. One megatrend that doesn’t receive much attention despite the fact that it is blatantly obvious is that 21-year-olds are rarely very good as NFL performers. Just look at their chubby little faces on draft day. Some of them can hardly grow a beard. They look like kids and they typically play like it, too. Physically, they are still maturing, and the older guys can push them around.

However, they grow up fast in the NFL. At age 22 and age 23 they typically are able to assert themselves better and they improve significantly. Look for a major improvement in Wills, Harris, and Peoples-Jones this season.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1416827611410354176?s=20

Nobody should be concerned about Wills, the first-round draft pick, who got off to a rocky start last season. That was very, very predictable, just as it is very, very predictable that he will improve greatly from year to year. He will be fine. In fact, he will be more than fine. Print it (we just did).

Harrison Bryant was the old man of the group at 22 last year, and is now 23. The Browns probably did not want to draft another tight end last season, but felt he was too good to pass up. He received more snaps than planned last season because the Browns wanted to play two tight ends, and neither David Njoku nor Austin Hooper were able to stay completely healthy. This season, can he develop to a comparable level of Njoku or Hooper?

Hudson is 22, and Felton just turned 23 on July 16, so he is actually almost an elderly gentleman by NFL standards. Felton had four years in the UCLA program. Hudson was redshirted and had to sit out when he transferred from the University Up North to the University of North, but has four years in college football.

They may be better prepared to contribute right away. Hudson is supposed to replace Kendall Lamm and enable the Browns to retrieve cap dollars by cutting Christopher Hubbard (even though they love his work ethic and level of play) and Felton ideally will allow the Browns to trade or cut D’Ernest Johnson (same comment). These moves are purely about age and salary cap as the team gears up to afford Myles Garrett, Baker Mayfield, and Nick Chubb, and Denzel Ward over the next few years.

Schwartz is only 20 and will not turn 21 until September 5. That means he cannot even drink beer at Grindstone Tap House, the Browns Backers club just outside the Browns’ training facility in Berea. What Schwartz can do now is force the opposing team to commit its fastest cornerback to cover him, which means someone else has to cover Donovan Peoples-Jones. Former Steeler and Cleveland Browns wideout Sammy Coates used to terrorize defensive backs, by running deep routes and catching the deep ball just often enough to create a threat.

However, the Browns’ ultimate goal is to see Schwartz expand his route tree and develop skills as a true wide receiver, which Coates was never able to really do. Breshad Perriman was another super-speed guy who started to work out for the Browns, but he threw a temper tantrum when John Dorsey signed OBJ and left the team. His development has been retarded with the Jets.

In conclusion, while the defensive improvement is going to be due to overhauling the roster, the offense is going to be more about a good team being given the opportunity to develop under the same coaching staff. This is a much more subjective decision.

Look for the greatest improvement from Jedrick Wills, Donovan Peoples-Jones. and maybe Harrison Bryant, although this analyst is not convinced that he is actually better than David Njoku or Austin Hooper, so playing time may be hard to come by. The veteran wide receivers, namely Odell Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry will be much more effective in the Stefanski offense now that they have a few thousand extra reps.

I look for the Browns to improve over 2020 when they were distinctly outclassed by Baltimore.  This season, they should be pretty much even up with the purple birds. They will double their point differential of 27 points from last season.