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Cleveland Browns: 5 reasons to pump the brakes on expectations

By Elliot Kennel

Dec 14, 2020; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry (80) makes a catch as Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey (44) defends during the second quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 14, 2020; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry (80) makes a catch as Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey (44) defends during the second quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports /
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WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 20: First row, U.S. President Barack Obama poses for photos with members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins including head coach Don Shula (R), quarterback Bob Griese (L), and running back Larry Csonka (4th L) during an East Room event August 20, 2013 at the White House in Washington, DC. President Obama hosted the undefeated 1972 Super Bowl champion who didnt get the chance to be honored at the White House back then. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 20: First row, U.S. President Barack Obama poses for photos with members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins including head coach Don Shula (R), quarterback Bob Griese (L), and running back Larry Csonka (4th L) during an East Room event August 20, 2013 at the White House in Washington, DC. President Obama hosted the undefeated 1972 Super Bowl champion who didnt get the chance to be honored at the White House back then. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) /

Postscript: Stats say 13 wins is a longshot for Cleveland Browns

Let’s talk about how difficult it is for a team to actually average 13-4 over an extended period of time, i.e., to post a win percentage of 13/17 or .761. The statisticians’ best estimate is that the true long-term win percentage is approximated by the Pythagorean win percentage, which is a function of the points for your team (PF) and the points scored by the opponent (OP). Pythagorean win percentage is calculated by:

Pythagorean Win pct = (PF)^2.37/[(PF^2.37+OP^2.37].

The form of the equation comes out of probability theory and in simplified form, it looks sort of like the Pythagorean theorem for triangles; hence, the name. If you can’t figure it out, your kid probably has a scientific calculator and can figure it out for you.

So if our team has a Pythagorean win percentage of .761, they are a formidable group indeed. If you say the typical game is going to have about 50 points scored our team will average about 31 versus 19 for the opponents. In other words, the Browns would deserve to be 12-point favorites each game, on average. Those fans who pay attention to point spreads realize that it’s not realistic to expect the team to be that good.

There is some chance that a team would be lucky and win 14 games once in a while by winning more than its share of close games. Twice in our lifetime, we saw teams that were undefeated in the regular season (the 1972 Dolphins and 2007 Patriots) but statistically speaking they had to be lucky as well as good.

For example, the 2007 Patriots scored 589 points and gave up 274, a Pythagorean win percentage of .860. That corresponds to about 14-2. So they were an extremely good team but also lucky to win two extra games that they probably should have lost. In the Super Bowl, of course, they lost to the New York Giants in rather improbable fashion. Winning was not so automatic after all.

The 1972 Dolphins scored 385 points and gave up 171 points, corresponding to a Pythagorean win percentage of .873 and a record of about 12-2. Don’t even get me started about how the Browns outplayed them in the playoffs and should have beat them were it not for the complete meltdown of Mike Phipps. So yeah, the 1972 Dolphins were great, but they were also very lucky.

A team that plays at the 12-5 level is an eight-point favorite over an average team on a neutral field, and 11-6 level is a .647 win percentage team, which is a six-point favorite over an average NFL team on a neutral field. That sounds like it might be more reasonable.

Teams that post large win totals (Pittsburgh with 12-4 last season and Buffalo with 13-3 last year) may not actually be better than a team like Baltimore that had a higher Pythagorean win percentage but lost some close games.

The statistician/oddsmaker would probably tell you that the Bills had luck on their side in 2020. They scored a lot of points, but they also gave up a lot. Pittsburgh and Buffalo could have just as easily been 10-6 last season, based on their Pythagorean win percentages.

Needless to say, a statistician would frown on the claim that you believe that the Browns are going to just win 14 games on luck. Translated, that means you have cut a deal with God and can infer deviations from statistical laws of random probability.

Next. 3 Browns make PFF’s ‘All-Underrated Team’. dark

The rest of us, without specific knowledge from God, are going to look for a shootout between the Browns, Steelers and Ravens.

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