Cleveland Browns overdue to draft a quarterback in 2022

The Cleveland Browns should never quit drafting developmental quarterbacks, and now they are overdue.

This article attempts to read Cleveland Browns general manager Andrew Berry‘s mind and predicts that Cleveland will shop for a new quarterback in 2022, probably via the draft, not to replace Baker Mayfield but because it is common sense to always be developing good young quarterbacks.

Thus far, Berry has been loath to have three quarterbacks on the roster, figuring he will promote his practice squad player (Nick Mullins for 2021) and go sign someone like Kyle Lauletta off a practice squad if disaster strikes even deeper.

However, the time has come. Backup Case Keenum‘s contract is due to expire at the end of 2022 and if they are interested in developing a young quarterback (and why would they not be interested in developing young quarterbacks?) the time to start is now. Maybe they already have a winner in Nick Mullens, but if not, it would be very appropriate to draft a prospect with the intention of keeping him on the 53 player roster and attempting to develop him.

It’s also another bargaining chip to use as the team negotiates with Baker Mayfield on a long-term contract. If Baker and his agents (Jack and Tom Mills) are playing hard to get, well, the Browns front office can take the point of view that there are other fish in the sea, too.

It’s high-stakes poker, and if the rookie gets good reviews, it’s not totally crazy that the Browns could try to make the case that they want to develop him as a starter. The Browns do not want an acrimonious relationship with Mayfield, but they are not going to vastly overpay, either. Mayfield is not getting Josh Allen money. Period.

If there’s an unwritten rule that the team is not allowed to draft a quarterback as long as they have an established starting quarterback, that’s a stupid rule. That might be in the operating plan of the New York Jets, because they got rid of Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold this year (only to trade to get Flacco back recently, but that’s because they are completely brainless) to eliminate competition for their super prospect, Zach Wilson.

The Browns did the same thing in 2017, to ensure DeShone Kizer would have no competition. Bad teams seem to think that way because they are afraid of having their choice for first string challenged, so they cut off all alternatives. Recall that Brian Hoyer was run out of Cleveland with a winning record to make way for the Johnny Manziel era. You have to admit, it simplified the decision-making process.

For what it’s worth, the New England Patriots have had the best strategy for developing quarterbacks over the years, and the New York Jets are the dumbest (next to the Browns). If anyone claims that they never drafted quarterbacks in order to protect Tom Brady from quarterback controversies, be advised this is totally wrong.

They drafted a total of eight quarterbacks while Brady was the starter: Rohan Davey (third round, 2002); Matt Cassell (seventh round, 2005); Kevin O’Connell (third round, 2008); Zac Robinson (seventh round, 2010); Ryan Mallett (third round, 2011); Jimmy Garoppolo (second round, 2014); and Jacoby Brissett (2016, third round); and Danny Etling (2018, seventh round).

That doesn’t include Brian Hoyer, who made the team as an undrafted free agent. As a group, they did an admirable job substituting for Tom Brady on the infrequent times he was unavailable. All told they went 13-6 when called upon to start for Brady and they often brought something back in trade when it was getting close to time to transition to a new contract. Backup quarterbacks have definite value.

Guessing here Andrew Berry is going to be more like the Patriots and less like the Jets or the 2017 Browns. The goal is to make a good investment, worthy of a spot on the 53-player roster. The Browns could certainly re-sign Case Keenum, who will be a low-mileage 33 years old in 2023. That’s not old at all for a player who isn’t getting sacked on a weekly basis. He’s a terrific backup, but if they could develop a kid to be the 40th best quarterback in the NFL by then, it would be a very attractive investment.

Common sense is that Cleveland needs to keep drafting quarterbacks. If the team’s scouts think there’s a guy out there that has a legit shot, draft him.

It’s realistic to develop a top 40 quarterback; ideally in three years. Two is possible for a very smart kid. What about instant success as a rookie? Well, in the past 10 years there have been four quarterbacks outside the first round to start and have a .500 record as a starter or better in their rookie season, out of about 82 quarterbacks drafted in Rounds 2-7:

• 2012: Russell Wilson, Round 3, 11-5
• 2013: Geno Smith Round 2, 8-8
• 2016: Dak Prescott:, Round 4,13-3
• 2019: Gardner Minshew: Round 6, 6-6

Of the four, only Wilson and Prescott have had sustained success. That’s a hit rate of about 2%, meaning if a team drafts a quarterback after the first round, statistically, every 40 years they will finish over .500. So if it happens, great, but let’s not count on it.

As for winning the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback in any round, it has never happened. So it just doesn’t seem like a very appealing strategy to instantly fix the Browns, sorry. Go sell this idea to the New York Jets.

A more tractable proposition would be to take a few years to allow a quarterback to develop. If you examine this week’s list of starting quarterbacks, you could add names such as Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Jacoby Brissett, Jalen Hurts, and Tyrod Taylor. Mason Rudolph and Trevor Siemian may start as backups.

Garoppolo and Carr are still longshots to make the playoffs.

Introducing a new quarterback to the Cleveland fan base is kind of like bringing home a new girlfriend to meet your mother. “Not good enough! Where’s her Ph.D.? No Olympic gold medals? Not a concert pianist? Surely not good enough for my son!!”

Yeah, Mom, well, there are never going to be any grandkids if I wait to find someone that meets your impossible standards. So thanks for your advice, but if you will excuse us, we’re going out.

Look for a follow-on article explaining why Baker Mayfield would be much more costly to replace than critics might think. It may take ten years to draft someone better because the top quarterbacks are not nearly as plentiful in the NFL draft as dissatisfied fans believe.