Cleveland Browns throw analytics out the window for Deshaun Watson

Have the Cleveland Browns been vaccinated against quarterback fever? 

The Cleveland Browns apparently are willing to throw the analytics rule book completely out the window for malcontent, overpaid, and (probably) soon-to-be-suspended quarterback Deshaun Watson.

As a reminder of why this is a gross departure from analytics reality, remember that the purpose of negotiating a contract in the first place was to establish “fair value” for Watson in the form of a contract extension.

Fair value means that Watson and his agent negotiated an enormous amount of money that was high enough to entice the employee to believe it worth signing but low enough for the employer to believe it was affordable. Once fair value is established, why does the player become worth more money to another team?

This phenomenon is repeated over and over again in the NFL as teams are willing to increase the compensation of a player when he is traded and add additional draft picks for the privilege of paying him far more than the previously established fair value.

At the time the contract was signed, both parties seemed totally happy with each other. For his part, Watson tearfully expressed his gratitude, appreciation, and loyalty to the Texans franchise.

Because of the NFL bonus rules, the contract extension contained a first-year discount for the Houston Texans and their Super Bowl run of 2021. That, however, didn’t take place because after the 2020 Watson had a change of heart. To make a long story short, he disagreed with the way the franchise was being run (so did a lot of observers, by the way) and vowed to never play for the Texans ever again. The Texans admitted that they could have done a better job and tried to work it out, but Watson would have none of it. He sat out the season and continued to draw a paycheck.

His situation was compounded by legal issues surrounding 22 active civil lawsuits. Let’s not judge anyone here, but let’s at least admit that the lawsuits exist, and the consensus view is that some sort of suspension is in order for 2022, probably several games or perhaps the entire season. He’s in quite a bit of trouble. We can ignore it, but Roger Goodell is not going away.

If Watson were a free agent, why would a team pay him that kind of money? He has been out of football for a year after deciding to split from his former team and getting sued by 22 women. Does that strike you as a constructive chapter in his personal development that would warrant an enormous pay raise above the previously established fair value?

It should be the other way around. Given his battles with management and sordid personal history, a major pay cut is in order. The new team is taking a chance that he has cured his various issues and is ready to commit to football and to the new football team and he is so not going to be Johnny Manziel 2.0. He’s probably worth a two-year deal at a reduced cost to allow him to earn his way back into a team’s good graces, followed by a team option at elite dollars if he can show he is worth it.

But wait, his value has increased in the past year. Somehow Watson has suddenly become worth not only record money but in addition, three first-round draft picks and change above his previous fair value level, according to the Texans. Quarterback-hungry teams seem to agree, and were apparently prepared to pay the price.

We can estimate how much that is worth. A first-round draft pick is probably worth about $20 million dollars on the open market. We can figure that out by reviewing the Brock Osweiler deal for a second-round pick and using the Dallas Cowboys draft value chart to extrapolate to the first round and correct for inflation. The extra picks are probably worth another $10 million, let’s say. In all, the draft picks are worth roughly $130 million.

So, Watson is not worth just $230 million in salary the next four years, but another $130 million in assets surrendered to the Texans. Let’s call it $360 million in total acquisition cost over four years, give or take. Watson is now worth $90 million dollars a year for the next four years. He has become far more valuable than Aaron Rodgers.

That’s totally nuts. The NFL needs a vaccine for Quarterback-Fever badly. NFL general managers are clearly afflicted. We thought Andrew Berry was going to be immune because of his hard-headed analytics style, but apparently not.

We can’t even pretend that we believe in analytics if we accept this deal. This is the kind of deal that a team makes if they believe that quarterbacks have unlimited value, or they are going to make one desperate grab for a Super Bowl ring in 2022 and then the team is willing to rebuild for the next decade.

There’s no guarantee they’re going to win with a quarterback like Watson, by the way. Somehow NFL GMs including Berry have deluded themselves into believing that Watson’s legal troubles are over and that his loyalty issues are now resolved and he is now more valuable than Aaron Rodgers. However, if he quit on the Texans, what makes you so certain he will not quit on your team? If he thought Houston was a soap opera, wait till he gets to Cleveland.

This is certain to put the Browns back on a downward spiral. No team can surrender that many draft picks and that much cap and think that it will get better. Self-destruction is inevitable.

This is an athlete with a proven track record as a major league clubhouse distraction, not to mention 22 allegations and who-knows-what-else. Good grief. Browns, what are you thinking? What are any of these quarterback-hungry teams thinking?

Mrs. Haslam, did you really approve a deal with 22 women pressing lawsuits against this man?

For the past two years, we were told that Dee, not Jimmy was the CEO of Haslam Sports Group. But it seems that Jimmy was back in the driver’s seat closing the deal. Was everybody really on board with this? So what kind of due diligence did the Browns perform concerning Mr. Watson?

Did they consult their attorneys? Did they interview persons who are close to Watson? Apparently not. Well then, did they interview persons close to the case? Who? Did they talk to former teammates of his? What did they say? Or are they back to getting advice from the homeless guy who recommended Johnny Manziel?

Also, shame on me. This pompous fan had overconfidently written that the analytics-based front office would surely not overpay the quarterback. Well, forget all about that. They appear to be willing to pay and pay and pay and pay, just because he’s a quarterback.

For years I have assured you that the Ivy League front office knew what they were doing and that they had a plan and that they were sharp operators and that Mrs. Haslam — the behind-the-scenes but highly effective CEO of eight-times Emmy-nominated RIVR Media — was in charge now and things were going to run smoothly because of her skill at organization building.

Well, that was not true. I totally blew it on the Browns. If Watson is suspended six games and plays 11 games, they may have a good season this year, but the burden of deferred salary cap acquisitions and lost first-round draft will become crushing starting in 2023.

Remember, they are not drafting that pass rusher this year, nor in 2024 nor in 2025, and they will have to start letting players go during those years to cover the $55 million cap hit in each of those years. This is a crushing, franchise-destroying move. Those fans who have been bitterly critical all along were right.

It is inevitable that the Cleveland Browns will be on a downward spiral for years to come, probably all the way to the lease renewal in 2029, when they will be so bad that they will be vulnerable to potential rival ownership groups from San Diego, St. Louis, Oakland, and London. They can look forward to a nice big fat suspension this season, a screwed-up salary cap from 2023 onward, a loss of draft picks, an unhappy fan base, a quarterback who will quit the team, and a team that moves to another city in 10 years.