Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam III has reset the NFL quarterback market, and also influenced the career of new Ravens president Sashi Brown.
The rest of the NFL is stunned at the massive reset of the quarterback market caused by the Cleveland Browns signing of Deshaun Watson. Nowhere is the effect felt more acutely than in Baltimore, where former Browns GM Sashi Brown, fired by Jimmy Haslam III in 2017, is in his first season as president of the Baltimore Ravens.
The number one issue facing the Ravens franchise is the long-term resolution of the quarterback situation, where Lamar Jackson remains unsigned to a multi-year deal. Now, two major changes have occurred that directly affect Baltimore and they both involve JH3.
It may be presumptuous to give Haslam too much credit (or blame) for signing Watson, but the sign-at-all-costs method sounds like something that JH3 would concoct, rather than the Ivy League salary cap manipulator, Andrew Berry. Yes, Berry wanted a new quarterback for the team, but this writer believes that JH3 is the one who handed Watson’s agent a blank check and told him to fill it out.
And definitely, Dee Haslam has veto power as CEO of Haslam Sports Group but she did not exercise it. Nevertheless, there is very little question that JH3 went for this deal hook, line, sinker, rod, reel, boat, and anchor.
Haslam is definitely the guy who fired Sashi Brown, after giving up on Brown’s rebuilding program two years into a five-year plan. Among his misdeeds were unnecessarily cutting Joe Haden, and botching (possibly deliberately) a deal for A.J. McCarron, which JH3 wanted to broker to make Hue Jackson stop whining.
Brown did trade away Josh McCown in order to force Hue to play youngsters Cody Kessler or DeShone Kizer, and perhaps Hue had a point there. However, no way should JH3 have been making trades of second-round draft picks for A.J. McCarron.
Anyway, after leaving Cleveland, Brown was an administrator for a few years for Monumental Basketball, which owns the Washington Wizards, and now he is back in the NFL with Baltimore, which is just down the road a piece from Washington. Hence if Haslam had not fired Sashi Brown, he would not have been available for Baltimore owner Steve Bisciotti to hire.
Both moves may very well impact the long-term future of Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. They may well take the opposite tack of the Browns, who this season reversed their strategy of careful cap management and now have mortgaged their future to the most expensive contract in NFL history, in terms of average value over the next four years.
Would the frugal Brown allow his new team to sign what might be the largest deal in Ravens history on his watch? Maybe, but it had better be consistent with historical data to back it up, and right now NFL quarterback salaries are not there yet.
The upshot is that Brown, together with present Ravens GM Eric DeCosta, may not want to buy into a huge investment in a dual-threat quarterback, even one with the immense stature of Lamar Jackson, who many observers including this one are calling the greatest dual-threat signal-caller in NFL history. The Ravens may be one of the few teams willing to buck the recent trend of overpaying quarterbacks.
At some point, some NFL team is going to decide that their quarterback is not worth the money and they are better off investing in defense and other phases of the game. That team could be the Baltimore Ravens and Sashi Brown — the guy fired by Jimmy Haslam — could be the catalyst to help them make that decision.
But first, let’s review the process that brought Jackson to the Ravens. Recall that for years the Ravens drafted well thanks in no small measure to the genius of Cleveland Browns Hall of Fame tight end Ozzie Newsome, who turned out to be a Hall of Fame general manager too.
The last draft he oversaw was the 2018 draft in which he selected Lamar Jackson as the last first-round pick in the same draft in which the Browns selected Baker Mayfield first overall. Who drafted better? Well, probably the Ravens. Oz killed us every year, as the rest of the NFL always screwed up and let him have just the player he needed, it seemed. 2018 was the year 31 teams forgot to draft Lamar Jackson.
So, Oz and coach John Harbaugh laid out a long-term plan for a run-first offense, similar in some respects to the current Stefanski offense used by the Browns. The Ravens were going to invest in offensive linemen, tight ends, and running backs galore, and not overspend on wide receivers.
With Jackson calling the shots, he became league MVP and the Ravens led the NFL in rushing, with everyone including the waterboy running the ball. The Ravens rolled up over 3,000 yards rushing in both 2019 and 2020, which is completely insane.
It wasn’t just Jackson either. They gave carries to running backs Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram, Justice Hill, and J.K. Dobbins, and they all ran behind 300-pound mastodon fullback Patrick Ricard. They had a plan.
Meanwhile, Sashi Brown oversaw the draconian Cleveland rebuilding process of 2016 and 2017 in which he accumulated a massive amount of salary cap and draft picks in a short amount of time. This kind of drastic operation is not going to be repeated in Baltimore.
However, if a major move like re-signing the star quarterback does not make financial sense — and many observers doubt whether the Watson deal and other recent NFL quarterback contracts make long-term financial sense — the Ravens’ brain trust may not pull the trigger.
DeCosta will be the person directly responsible for handling the negotiations with Jackson, but it will help to have Brown on his side. Brown has the reputation as a ruthless cap manager. Just as the Browns’ Andrew Berry faced criticism for not re-signing Baker Mayfield, there will be even greater pressure on DeCosta to re-sign a former League MVP. Sashi Brown’s presence and backing could strengthen DeCosta’s negotiating position significantly.
Moreover, there are definite signs that the Browns’ greatest rival is re-tooling their offense for a more conventional pass-oriented offense, rather than the run-first style that has characterized the Jackson era.
A classic case was swapping grumpy Pro Bowler Orlando Brown, Jr. for draft picks, while signing ancient free agent tackle Alejandro Villanueva from the Steelers to replace Brown. The Ravens drafted two wide receivers in the first round in Marquise Brown in 2019 and Rashod Bateman last season. They also drafted Devin Duvernay (2020) and Myles Boykin (2019) as third-round picks. James Proche was selected in the sixth round (2020); and Tylan Wallace was a fourth-rounder in 2021. So the Ravens seem to be gearing up for a long-ball passing offense, Lamar Jackson or not.
That doesn’t prove that the Ravens are getting ready to jettison Jackson, but it does tell us that the Ravens are moving towards a passing offense, rather than the offense that emphasized the tight ends and running backs of a few years ago. That’s probably not a bad thing for the Browns, because the Ravens of 2019-2020 seemed to be pretty much unstoppable. That offense was not broke, so if you purple birdies want to overhaul it, go right ahead.
The Ravens were among the most injured teams last season, with key injuries to all of its running backs as well as Pro Bowl tackle Ronnie Stanley. Jackson responded by throwing more passes than ever before, and increasing his passing yardage output, though his INTs also increased.
It’s debatable whether he can develop into a passer at the same level as, say, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, or Deshaun Watson, but he probably wants to get paid at that level. That pay level has escalated in the last few years and the trend is for NFL teams to promise much higher numbers in the near future, Watson being a case in point.
2023 Quarterback Salaries are outrageous
The table below shows that the NFL finds itself in a period in which the top quarterback salary is escalating dramatically (numbers are from Spotrac.com and team records are from ProFootballReference.com).
Forget about inflation, just look at who has the highest salary and what percentage it represents compared to the NFL cap allowance for that season. The last time the quarterback with the highest cap charge won the Super Bowl was ten seasons ago. Peyton Manning was getting 15 percent of the 2012 NFL salary cap allowance that season, and the Broncos won it all.
Manning was actually falling apart physically that year, and they really won it on defense, but nevertheless, they did win while paying a huge salary-cap charge to their quarterback. Since then, the top quarterback cap hit in the NFL has usually been incurred by a team with a losing record.
From an analytics point of view, this business of escalating salaries for quarterbacks makes no sense. The salary cap is real, and recent history teaches that if the team pays too much for a quarterback in a given year, the rest of the roster usually cannot make up for it and the team does not win the Super Bowl that year.
Cleveland, of course, is adding fuel to the fire. The Browns might win the Super Bowl in 2022, but if they do it won’t be because they made a huge investment in DeShaun Watson. His salary cap charge is huge for 2023, 2024, and 2025, but the Browns get a discount in 2022.
His cap charge this upcoming season is only $10.0 million, or 4.8 percent of the $208.2 million cap allowance that all NFL teams get this season. Estimating that the 2023 cap allowance will be about $225 million, DeShaun Watson’s cap charge will be $55 million, or an amazing 24.4 percent.
Next highest is Ryan Tannehill’s 2022 deal, for which the Titans’ cap hit is $38.5 million, or 18.5 percent of the cap allowance. Prior to Covid, in 2020 it was Dak Prescott at $31.4 million or 15.8 percent.
So, if you connect the dots, the historical max has been about 15 percent of the team salary cap; Tannehill is punching through this year at 18.5 percent and Watson is setting a new bar at 24.4 percent thereafter.
Other quarterbacks, specifically Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff are north of 15 percent of the cap allowance this season. Teams that spend that high of a percentage of their payroll on one player usually do not win the Super Bowl or come close.
Mahomes, for example, was not getting paid top dollar in terms of salary cap charges when he was going to the Super Bowl. Remember, extensions and bonus money are deferred till later. So, when Mahomes was going to the Super Bowl, his cap charge was actually lower than Baker Mayfield’s.
Similarly, Tom Brady doesn’t ask for top dollar. Instead, he signs for an average amount of money and gets management to promise to use the extra cap space to sign a few key players for him, like Antonio Brown.
In the past, the highest-paid quarterback has often been one who has led his team to the Super Bowl in previous years, including the Mannings, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, and Drew Brees. However, Peyton Manning (2012) was the only quarterback to win while having the highest cap charge among NFL quarterbacks in the same year he won it.
From the looks of things, a new contract extension would kick in major dollars in 2023 or 2024. The league is now suffering from sticker shock since the Browns set a new standard with Deshaun Watson. Ryan Glasspiegel of the New York Post quoted Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti as follows:
"“I don’t know that he should’ve been the first guy to get a fully guaranteed contract. To me, that’s something that is groundbreaking, and it’ll make negotiations harder with others.” — Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti on Deshaun Watson’s contract with the Cleveland Browns."
Year Team Player Salary, NFL Cap W L T Playoffs? SB?
$M $M Pct
2023 Browns Deshaun Watson $55.0 $225.0 24.4% TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
2022 Titans Ryan Tannehill $38.6 $208.2 18.5% TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
2021 Seahawks Russell Wilson $32.0 $182.5 17.5% 7 10 No No
2020 Cowboys Dak Prescott $31.4 $198.2 15.8% 6 10 No No
2019 Lions Matt Stafford $30.7 $188.2 16.3% 3 12 1 No No
2018 Lions Matt Stafford $26.5 $177.2 15.0% 6 10 No No
2017 Ravens Joe Flacco $24.6 $167.0 14.7% 9 7 No No
2016 Giants Eli Manning $24.2 $155.3 15.6% 11 5 Yes No
2015 Saints Drew Brees $23.8 $143.3 16.6% 7 9 No No
2014 Giants Eli Manning $20.4 $133.0 15.3% 6 10 No No
2013 Giants Eli Manning $20.9 $123.6 16.9% 7 9 No No
2012 Broncos Peyton Manning $18.0 $120.6 14.9% 13 3 Yes Yes
The takeaway from the table is that it is probably not smart to be the GM that gets stuck with the highest salary-cap charge for a quarterback in the NFL in a given year.
Usually, NFL teams plan to take a discount on the cap and “win right now,” and take the salary cap hit later on. What you see in this table is usually what happens when “later on” actually happens, and the reality of the salary cap damages the rest of the team.
Overpaying the quarterback is okay if there is a discount for the first year, and you are willing to go through a rebuilding phase thereafter with an overpaid quarterback on the books. Is that what Eric DeCosta wants to do, and would Sashi Brown approve that plan? That does not sound like the Sashi Brown we got to know in Cleveland.
This is especially true because the Ravens may have encountered another dynamic young quarterback in Tyler Huntley. He is not a superstar runner like Jackson, but he is very mobile and actually was intercepted less frequently than Jackson last season.
DeCosta and Brown will have to decide whether they would rather have Jackson or go with Huntley plus about four starting players worth of salary money.
How can Lamar negotiate without an agent?
The Jackson negotiation will be unique because he does not have an agent. If there are any young athletes reading this article, please don’t do what Lamar Jackson is doing and self-represent yourself.
This author loves Jackson as a player, advocated him as a first-round pick from the get-go, and called him the greatest dual-threat quarterback in NFL history as a rookie — and did so in print. So this is not a knock on Jackson, but being a professional agent and contract negotiator is not easy.
A tough negotiation means both sides are just at the point of walking away — and often at several points during the negotiations — until a compromise is finally reached. Neither side gets everything that they want. You’re probably going to wind up hating your employer if you negotiate your own deal. This is a very bad idea and is one reason why, standing alone, a long-term deal may be a terrible financial decision for all concerned.
By the same token, the thought that Josh Allen has a contract extension and Lamar Jackson has nothing should be intolerable to a professional agent. Put it this way, if Jackson were paying an agent, and Jackson’s deal is more than a year later than Allen’s, then Jackson’s agent should be fired.
Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti seems to indicate that Jackson is his own worst enemy in this regard. Bisciotti says that the team is willing to come to the negotiating table but Jackson seems to be reluctant, perhaps wishing to wait until after he wins the Super Bowl. That, of course, is the way an athlete thinks, rather than an agent. It’s more evidence that Jackson the player needs to fire Jackson the agent.
Injury risk is a reason why Jackson should seek an extension sooner rather than later. Jackson takes a pounding like no other quarterback, and for that reason, it might reduce his value lower than Josh Allen’s. Hopefully, Jackson’s buddy Mayfield has sold him a decent insurance policy. But to have no contract at all should be intolerable. A good agent would have worked something out.
We just do not know what will happen with the athlete acting as his own agent. It might go smoothly, with the Ravens getting a reasonably fair deal. Or they might decide to use the Franchise Tag method for 2023, which will cost them upwards of $30 million and no discount.
The mixed signals from the Ravens are as follows: first, they love Lamar Jackson. Second, they love reality-based fair deals as they continue to evolve a passing offense.
That would put them in conflict with the pioneering methods of Jimmy Haslam III, who seems to believe you can win by making a great quarterback happy at any price.