Can the Cleveland Browns survive paying unprecedented salary cap charges in the Watson era?
When the news broke that the Cleveland Browns were signing Deshaun Watson to a gargantuan contract, the Dawg Pound was split in two.
Many of us were thrilled that a star of his magnitude was coming to Cleveland. Almost everyone recognized that year one of the Watson era would be a bargain, with a cap hit of only $10 million, in rounded numbers. However, in 2023 the number goes up to $55 million, which amounts to 24.4% of the league’s estimated cap allowance of $225 million.
So what, you may ask? The essential problem is that no team has won the Super Bowl in recent memory while paying more than about 15% of its cap allowance on one player. Check out the following chart on Super Bowl quarterbacks (numbers from Spotrac.com):
Year Winning QB Team Rank Cap Hit Pct Cap Losing QB Team Rank Cap Hit Pct Cap
2012 Flacco Ravens 16 $8.0 M 6.6% Kaepernick 49ers 48 $1.2 M 1.0%
2013 Wilson Seahawks 52 $681 K 0.6% Manning Denver 3 17.5 M 14.2%
2014 Brady Patriots 12 $14.8 M 11.1% Wilson Seahawks 53 $817 K 0.6%
2015 P. Manning Broncos 6 $17.5 M 12.2% Newton Panthers 15 $13.0 M 9.1%
2016 Brady Patriots 18 $13.8 M 8.9% Ryan Falcons 3 $23.8 M 15.3%
2017 Foles Eagles 47 $1.6 M 1.0% Brady Patriots 20 $14.0 M 8.4%
2018 Brady Patriots 11 $22.0 M 12.4% Goff Rams 26 $7.6 M 4.9%
2019 Mahomes Chiefs 32 $4.5 M 2.5% Garoppolo 49ers 15 $20.0 M 11.0%
2020 Brady Bucs 5 $25.0 M 12.6% Mahomes Chiefs 32 $5.3 M 2.7%
2021 Stafford Rams 9 $20.0 M 11.0% Burrow Bengals 19 $8.2 M 4.5%
10 Year Average 7.8% 7.2%
So, if the Browns are going to really pay Watson 24.4% of the cap allowance, that amounts to more than three times what the average of the Super Bowl-winning quarterback has received over the past 10 years.
Now, there are a large number of us within the Dawg Pound who are totally okay with this. The rationale is that the NFL is a quarterback’s league, and so the team needs a premier quarterback no matter what the cost. Many fans doubt whether the salary cap is real, and believe that Andrew Berry can simply refinance everything and all these problems will evaporate.
In that case, Dawg Pound Daily should definitely quit publishing stories like this one that worry about the salary cap and other non-existent issues, and ship the author off to a Siberian Gulag and let the authorities there take care of him.
Another school of thought, however, realizes that by overspending on the quarterback and trading away three consecutive first-round draft picks, the Browns will eventually weaken the rest of the team and descend back into mediocrity. The NFL in general is going through a phase in which several teams are overspending the historical level on quarterbacks, and the Browns are way out in front.
It stands to reason that they will crash and burn. By 2024, the talent will be depleted from the roster and the Browns are headed into a crisis. That is the assumption that this author works from.
So, how can they survive?
At first, this author thought there was no way the Browns could survive and they would be looking at a four-win season in a few years. But it looked like Atlanta was going to impale itself on Matty Ryan’s huge contract this season, and they got out of it by getting Indianapolis to take over the payments.
They refinanced, and suddenly Ryan is affordable this season. Similarly, Indy was stuck with Carson Wentz, and somehow, by magic, he took his overweight contract to the Washington Commanders and Indy got draft picks for him. Amazing! It seemed certain that both Atlanta and Indianapolis were going to be crushed under the burden of their awful quarterback contracts, but they lived.
What is extremely curious is that Matt Ryan adjusted his contract to make it more favorable to the Colts in order to make the move. Had he stayed in Atlanta, he could have collected more money, but he would have remained in limbo, like where Baker Mayfield is now. But the Colts not only received a first-year discount, but some adjustment of the downstream money to make it a more liveable deal overall, and his flexibility enabled the deal to go forward.
Another counter-example was the New Orleans Saints, who went all-in for Drew Brees’ final year in 2020, and wound up almost $100 million over the salary cap in 2021. This was staggering. Yet by cutting players, restructuring contracts, and inventing “voidable years” (applying bonus dollars to future years in which no salary is due to be paid), the Saints knocked $111 million dollars off their cap in one season! Incredible!
So if the Saints, Colts, and Falcons can wriggle off the hook, why not the Browns?
Cleveland has to face the fact that they are already overspent for 2023. Overthecap publishes an estimate for the top 51 contracts. The number 51 is chosen because of an obscure rule that requires NFL teams to use their top 51 player salaries to report their payroll during the offseason, even though the regular-season roster size is 53.
The payroll is currently projected at $232.7 million. Add $1.7 million to get them to 53 players. Add $3.3 million for the practice squad. Let’s estimate the draft plus in-season pickups cost $5 million (that’s too low, but let’s be optimistic). The total sum amounts to $242.7 million dollars for 2023. 2023 estimated NFL cap allowance number is $225 million, meaning the Browns are overspent by $17.7 million dollars off the payroll.
The situation is actually worse than that, if you dare to read the next page, but there may be things that Andrew Berry can do to keep the playoff window open one more year.
In 2023 the Cleveland Browns will have to cut payroll
For years, the Browns have been able to outspend their opponents, thanks to the efforts of Sashi Brown, who stashed away $59 million worth of salary cap back in 2017 by cutting every veteran he could, including viable players like Josh McCown and Joe Haden.
Make no mistake, in 2022, the Browns are making their best Super Bowl run, signing every free agent possible, and taking advantage of the first-year discount, knowing full well that the result is an unaffordable payroll in 2023 beyond. They are currently projected at somewhere around $242.7 million versus their cap allowance of $225 million.
They are allowed to overspend the cap allowance if they can “carry over” dollars from 2021. Currently, Over The Cap tells us that the Browns have $27.8 million worth of total cap space, because they have carried over $9.5 million from 2021, and they are currently underspent. If they can unload all or part of Baker Mayfield’s salary this season (at some point, some quarterback will be out for the season and there may be a market for Mayfield and his $18.9 million salary), they may be able carry over enough money to pay for 2023.
Because bonus money is spread out over five years, while salary is charged to the year that the check is written, NFL teams get a discount on the salary cap in the first years of a new contract. Bills are coming due in 2023 for the Browns, big time.
For example, quarterback Deshaun Watson’s cap charge is $10 million in 2022, and $55 million in 2023, a difference of $45 million.
Amari Cooper’s cap charge is $4.9 million in 2022, and $23.8 million in 2023 — an $18.9 million difference.
Myles Garrett’s extension starts to kick in. His cap charge is $13.0 million for 2022, $29.2 million in 2023, a $16.2 million dollar difference.
That’s about $80 million dollars from just three players, gang!
The Browns also are scheduled to lose the following players as unrestricted free agents: Jack Conklin, David Njoku, Kareem Hunt, Jacoby Brissett, Anthony Walker, Jr. Chris Hubbard, D’Ernest Johnson, Charley Hughlett, Sheldon Day, Chase Winovich, Sione Takitaki, Ethan Pocic, Greedy Williams, Ronnie Harrison, D’Ernest Johnson plus several other less talented players.
To be clear, these players are not included in the $242.7 budget currently on the books. The Browns are over budget and they are losing more than15 players as unrestricted free agents in the same season. By comparison, this makes the maiden voyage of the Titanic seem relatively problem-free.
The whole idea of 2022 is that your team is going to win the Super Bowl now, before later happens. But “later” eventually rolls around, so your GM/coach decides to retire and moves on to another team, which is what Andrew Berry will probably do when the Browns’ window closes.
Now you understand why this fan believes that 2022 is the Browns best shot at a Super Bowl. It seems almost impossible to keep the window open in 2023.
But wait! Since the voidable years technique is legal, the Browns probably can in fact emulate the Saints and restructure contracts and spread bonuses over five voidable years even though the contract is only for one year. The Browns have already done this with Johnson and Cooper, but they could be granted extensions for another year in order to get that first-year discount again.
This means that the Browns will be paying major dollars until well into the future, so there will be the devil to pay for many years, but it is possible to keep the window open another year.
What can the Browns do to reduce the payroll? If you are thinking about cutting John Johnson, who many fans felt was the most overpaid player on the team, that will save the Browns only $900,000 because so much of his deal is guaranteed. Plus he received bonus money for voidable years, namely 2024,2025, and 2026 when he is not even under contract with the Browns (as mentioned earlier, this little trick was one pioneered by the New Orleans Saints on the play-now, pay-later plan).
The Browns actually are under the cap for 2022 and have up to $27 million of cap savings that could be carried over to 2023. Getting someone to accept all or part of Baker Mayfield’s salary would be very important because the Browns could carry over up to $18.9 million dollars of additional cap savings into 2023.
They can also help themselves by trading some of their major players, just as the Cowboys found it necessary to trade Amari Cooper to the Browns. Cooper might prove to be a one-year wonder. Again, he would presumably get a new contract out of the deal, if it can be made. The veteran offensive linemen may also have to go if they can be replaced by younger players.
They can also extend Deshaun Watson and reset the clock. How about one more season, Mr. Watson, with a major pay raise and a signing bonus? The Browns could once again give themselves a first-year discount again if they add a sixth year to his original contract. They can do the same thing for Myles Garrett.
Another crazy scenario is a long-term suspension of Watson, which would result in reducing his cap charge. Eight games would save the Browns $25.9 million dollars.
Let’s mention one good thing. With 15 unrestricted free agents leaving, the Browns are almost certainly going to qualify for three compensatory draft picks. They will show up in 2024.
With a combination of these moves, the Browns could survive the 2023 season, and maybe even make a playoff run. At some point, however, they are going to have to get off the carousel. They will need an exit strategy.
The Cleveland Browns exit strategy
So suppose some year in the future, just hypothetically, the Browns finish with a losing record, and the team is old due to not having had a first-round pick in forever. The Browns will owe $55 million-plus or even more to Watson for the upcoming season and perhaps even another year or two.
Now he wants out. In addition, they are way over budget because of monster contracts for Denzel Ward, Myles Garrett, Amari Cooper, and several others. It’s time to get a new quarterback and rebuild for the future. What then? Is there an “exit strategy,” as they say in business terms?
Maybe. When the time comes, the Browns need to find a trading partner who is totally committed to a one-year push for the Super Bowl, just like the 2021 Rams, 2022 Browns, or Colts. The Browns also need Watson to remain a star, and not poison his own well like Baker Mayfield did either by off-the-field issues or on the field performance or health. If the time comes when Watson wants to get traded, it will help if Watson and his agent are equally flexible as Matty Ryan and his agent were.
If Watson needs to be traded, some general manager may get “Quarterback Fever” and pass it on to the owner. The other team, just like the Browns, may be mesmerized by the possibility of a first-year discount, meaning that Watson’s first year could be for less than market value.
That can cause their eyes to glaze over. Then they will start talking about giving up draft picks and signing away the team’s future. Once they catch quarterback fever, they stop caring about the future.
This seems like a ridiculous Browns fantasy, but recall that Cleveland wasn’t the only team willing to trade multiple draft picks for Watson, so it might be possible again. We saw the same thing happen for Carson Wentz (two years in a row) and Matt Ryan.
These trades were all the result of way over-valuing (in this author’s opinion) the quarterback position, and under-valuing the future of the franchises involved. It’s not logical, but it’s true. Don’t expect three first-round picks the second time around, but the Browns could even get a valuable draft haul in return.
That’s the positive scenario, but it’s not guaranteed. Without belaboring the point, no player is risk-free, and Watson has at least as much risk as the average player. Watson has had two ACL surgeries in his brilliant career, and then there is the obvious risk of legal repercussions from the pending court cases that he is involved in. The Browns gambled a huge amount of money on one player. He’s one hit away or one off-the-field incident away from having it all go up in smoke.
However, it is not just Watson’s contract. The Browns are built on the play-now, pay-later plan, in many ways like the Saints. There is no first-round draft pick until 2025. Many of Berry’s signings were made with generous guaranteed money and commitments to pay bonuses in voidable years which will drain future budgets for years to come.
Cleveland has made the collective decision to gamble everything on the 2022 season, and 2023 and beyond will be about clearing cap space and trying to dig themselves out of the hole that they have dug for themselves.
If the time comes that the Browns have to admit that they are rebuilding again, they may find it necessary to see whether the core of the team wants to tough it out with the Browns rebuilding process. The “core” refers to stars Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, Joel Bitonio, Nick Chubb, and Wyatt Teller. The Browns and the Dawg Pound need to be up-front if Watson is traded.
The message is that we love all of you, but without Watson, the team might win four games. Do you want to be traded to a contender or can we keep you happy in Cleveland somehow? What is best for each player, deep down?
Chaining them to a sinking ship might be what the fans want and expect, but wouldn’t be the act of love that it seems. We would like to see some of them, at least, spend their entire careers with Cleveland, as Joe Thomas did, but not everyone is like Joe Thomas, nor should they be. The cold hard truth is that the Browns will need draft picks and cap space again if they are to avoid a total disaster.
If, God forbid, Watson is injured or becomes untradeable for some other reason, then the Browns would have to figure out how to play football with a budget that is $55 million dollars lower than the budgets of their rivals, and no first-round draft choice until 2025. Does anyone else think that is a problem? Please comment below!