The Cleveland Browns might be better off focusing on veteran players this year and next, and hoarding draft resources for 2025 and 2026 when they will be needed.
If the Cleveland Browns are in win-now mode, they have to be honest enough with themselves to admit that they don’t draft well enough on Day 3 to justify a full slate of picks in 2023.
Accordingly, they might consider bundling a few Day 3 picks to move up into Day 2. If they can’t do that on favorable terms, they should reinvest those picks in the 2024 and later drafts, because they can’t afford to waste the roster spots on players who aren’t ready to perform on a playoff team.
Cleveland Browns should plan to trade out of Day 3 in 2023 NFL Draft
Under general manager Andrew Berry, since the 2020 offseason, Cleveland has drafted 14 players on Day 3 of the NFL Draft (i.e., Round 4 – Round 7). Of those 14 selections, only three were moderately successful in their rookie year.
We’re not talking Rookie of the Year performances here, but fourth wide receiver, third tight end, and first-string special teams. The other 11 players weren’t the best options for year one, but the promise of future potential kept them on the team.
The conventional strategy is that your team should draft a full slate of rookies (eight in 2023, including five Day 3 picks). The Fab Five from Day 3 will occupy roster spots and prevent low-tier free agents from signing with the team while these rookies learn how to shave and get dressed while preparing to play football in about 2026.
Instead, in 2023 the Browns could trade away these Day 3 draft picks. If they can trade up to Day 2, they have a better chance of landing a contributor. If they can’t swing that type of deal, they should try to trade back all the way to 2024, which can usually bring better picks.
Try to trade a 2023 Round 4 for a 2024 Round 3. Or try to trade a 2023 Round 5 for a 2024 Round 4, or even later assets. The empty roster spots can be used to sign free agents at or near the NFL minimum. These “one-year wonders” already know how to play, and the record shows that they outperform late-round rookies. This is unorthodox thinking, but that’s why you read Dawg Pound Daily, right?
If you question whether teams will really trade future picks for present picks, in 2022, the Browns traded their 2022 Round 4 pick for Minnesota’s 2022 Round 5 pick (Jerome Ford) and their 2023 Round 4 pick. This corresponds to over 50 percent annual interest, which is better than the interest organized crime gets.
There are other examples of teams paying extra to use next year’s draft capital to draft now (remember the trade to move up and draft Brady Quinn?). NFL teams really do pay 50 percent interest to move up. Investing in future picks can be quite a racket. Hello Paul DePodesta, the Browns should take advantage of this rather than clog the roster with players who aren’t ready to play.
Look at who the Browns signed for about the league minimum in 2022. They signed two offensive linemen in Ethan Pocic and Hjalte Froholdt. Pocic was graded third overall among centers in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. Froholdt played both guard and center. He was an average NFL guard, and struggled at center, which was an unfamiliar position for him.
He could start for some NFL teams at guard for certain, and maybe at center if he cleans up a few things. The Browns also signed blocking tight end Pharaoh Brown and quarterback Joshua Dobbs and claimed Kellen Mond. On defense, the Browns got mileage from defenders Jordan Kunaszyk, Jermaine Carter, and Isaac Rochell. As a group, these players were significantly better than the Day 3 picks.
Roster spots were a problem, of course. They eventually had to let Dobbs go when Deshaun Watson returned from suspension, and he went on to play well for the Tennessee Titans. Rochell likewise wound up getting cut.
Let’s look back at Andrew Berry’s record with Day 3 picks, starting in 2022 and working backward.
Browns 2022 Day 3 studs and duds
In 2022, the Browns drafted Perrion Winfrey (Round 4), Cade York (Round 4), Jerome Ford (Round 5), Michael Woods II (Round 6), Isaiah Thomas (Round 7), and Dawson Deaton (Round 7).
There was only one stud here and that is Jerome Ford, who finished third in NFL kickoff return yardage with 723 yards. However, even he really impressed with potential more than real achievement. As a running back he gained a grand total of 12 yards from scrimmage. But keep on feeding those offensive linemen steak and potatoes and teaching them jiu-jitsu techniques to use on the line of scrimmage, and Ford is going to be okay if he ever gets a chance.
We like the idea of giving carries to running backs early in the game in order to set up Nick Chubb to dominate in the fourth quarter, where he has a 6.09-lifetime yards per carry average. All this talk about the Browns not being able to come from behind is such nonsense when you have a proven weapon like that.
Look, there’s no team that routinely comes back from huge deficits. But if the Browns manage their timeouts, and if their guy Chubb is well-rested and gains over six yards per carry, he’s a real weapon in the fourth quarter. He will for sure push people around late in the game and score points in the freaking fourth quarter.
Just don’t get behind by 17 points (good advice for any team, not just running teams). So give Ford some carries like Hunt used to get before the Browns figured it was better to just punch with one hand rather than two. Come on. One-two punch, guys.
Some fans think Cleveland got a draft-day steal by drafting Cade York, but this hasn’t been proven yet. In baseball terms, York was like a AAA ballplayer who was wearing a big league uniform last season, kind of like Nuke LaLoosh from Bull Durham.
Great promise, but not so great at kicking field goals. That’s okay if you’re rebuilding, but not okay if you’re really trying to win now. The Browns could have kept Chase McLaughlin to do the kicking and could probably have dealt that fourth-round pick for a future third round pick or some other future asset. The numbers say McLaughlin had better numbers in 2022 than York. York was not an upgrade as a rookie.
Understand, York will get better, it’s just that he wasn’t such a stud in 2022. Let’s look forward to 2023 while acknowledging that the rookie played like a rookie in 2022.
Could the Browns have replaced Michael Woods II and his 45 receiving yards with a free agent or waiver wire acquisition?
Winfrey and Thomas played significant snaps but were graded poorly by Pro Football Focus. It’s hard to regard their rookie seasons as assets to the team.
Browns 2021 Day 3 studs and duds
2021 saw almost no positive contribution from Day 3 rookies. There were five players drafted on Day 3 that year. They were: James Hudson (Round 4), Tommy Togiai (Round 4), Tony Fields (Round 5), Richard LeCounte (Round 5), and Demetric Felton (Round 6). None of them stood out in a good way.
Hudson had some success filling in for Jack Conklin in his second year, but as a rookie, he was manhandled, particularly in the infamous Steelers game in which Baker Mayfield was sacked nine times. Hudson tried his best to fill in for Conklin, but T.J. Watt was too much to handle that day. Hudson might be starting material in 2023, but not in 2021, he wasn’t.
Fields missed 2021 due to injuries.
Demetric Felton caught 20 passes in 2021, but his four fumbles caused him to lose favor with the coaching staff. Nobody who fumbles four times can be called a stud. Not surprisingly, he didn’t play much in 2022, especially after he fumbled again early on. He may have a future in the slot, but hold on to the luggage, please.
Safety Richard LeCounte was let go, and when last seen was a member of the Los Angeles Rams practice squad.
Togiai has been consistently ranked at the bottom of his profession by the graders at Pro Football Focus. You never know with defensive linemen, because no one is ever at 100 percent. It would be fair to say that the Browns had projected a certain level of improvement for him in 2022 and did not get what they were expecting.
So far he has not justified keeping a roster spot open for him based on his production, although people at 76 Lou Groza Blvd still believe he will develop into an NFL lineman.
In short, there were only rookie duds from Round 3 of the 2021 NFL draft. Two players have improved to become borderline contributors in 2022 and might develop further in 2023.
Browns 2020 Day 3 studs and duds
In 2020 the Browns had acceptable rookie performances from wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones (304 receiving yards) and tight end Harrison Bryant (238 receiving yards). Those performances didn’t necessarily merit Pro Bowl berths, but they at least did not embarrass themselves.
304 receiving yards from Peoples-Jones isn’t bad, corresponding to WR4, behind Jarvis Landry, Hollywood Higgins, and Odell Beckham, Jr. (who went on IR with an ACL injury but still posted 319 yards).
Kareem Hunt also posted 304 receiving yards, most of which came from out of the backfield, but some of which were from the slot receiver position. Peoples-Jones came up with a memorable game-breaking catch to beat the Bengals that year.
However, he danced like a rookie. Probably Jim Harbaugh taught him that dance.
DPJ has improved a lot since his rookie year, with 839 receiving yards last season.
Bryant was the third tight end behind Austin Hooper and David Njoku. Here again, the third tight end is not anywhere close to the MVP of the team, but it is at least a meaningful contribution. Thus, we are going to grade Bryant and Jones as rookie “studs,” but the bar is set rather low. They were not major contributors as rookies, but they at least contributed as rookies.
Less impressive was center Nick Harris. He received positive reviews in the preseason but struggled when he actually got the chance to perform. He was drafted as a center, but got into two games as a right guard and played essentially two full games (143 snaps) in relief of Wyatt Teller, giving up two sacks. His pass blocking was graded a bright red 34.0 by Pro Football Focus, one of the lowest grades they could hand out.
He had a start in 2021 and played better. A preseason injury in 2022 resulted in Ethan Pocic getting the first-string job at center, with Hjalte Froholdt becoming second-string.
By now, Harris has been trained as an NFL interior offensive lineman and should definitely make the team as a backup guard and center. In 2020, however, Harris was more of a dud than a stud.
To sum up, in the Berry era, there were three rookies who were drafted on Day 3 and graded as studs in their rookie year: Donovan Peoples-Jones (2020 Round 6), Harrison Bryant (2020 Round 4), and Jerome Ford (2022 Round 5). None of these players was really great, but they were acceptable as a third or fourth string.
Everyone else graded as a dud in their rookie season: Harris (2020 Round 4), James Hudson (2021 Round 4), Tommy Togiai (2021 Round 4), Tony Fields (2021 Round 5), Richard LeCounte (2021 Round 5) and Demetric Felton (2021 Round 6), Perrion Winfrey (2022 Round 4), Cade York (2022 Round 4), Michael Woods II (2022 Round 6), Isaiah Thomas (2022 Round 7) and Dawson Deaton (2022 Round 7).
We’re not saying their careers are duds, but we are saying they did not play well in their rookie seasons. By their third year, many of these players will show significant improvement. The question is whether, in the 2023 draft, your team wants to use five roster spots for players who probably will not contribute much until 2025 or 2026.
If they are trying to win now — and we believe they are — they need to trade out of Day 3 because these players are very unlikely to be helpful to a Super Bowl run. Instead, bundle a few and try to trade up to Day 2.
Alternatively, trade for better picks in 2024 and later. Veteran free agents can be obtained at the same cost and are much more reliable as a one-year proposition. Those draft picks will gain interest like money in the bank if they are traded for future year assets. Don’t worry, they will be there when it is time to rebuild.
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