We spend months reading up on prospects and looking at mock drafts from all the experts, but when the NFL Draft officially opens on Thursday night, things will happen that no expert saw coming. It happens every year.
In 2021, the Chicago Bears sent two first-round picks and more to the New York Giants to jump up to No. 11 for Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. The Bears hadn't really been linked to Fields, so the move was a surprise. The Philadelphia Eagles traded two first-round picks to the Dallas Cowboys to move up to No. 10 for Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith. And the Cleveland Browns moved up seven spots in the second round to select Notre Dame linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
2022 saw even more unexpected moves be made, including a couple Browns changing teams (and I don't mean ones from Cleveland). The Baltimore Ravens sent wide receiver Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals, and the Tennessee Titans traded wide receiver A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles.
So what wild and unexpected things could we see happen this weekend in the 2023 NFL Draft? Here are three bold predictions from fans and my reaction to each one. And as we've seen before, no prediction is too bold to scoff at when it comes to the NFL Draft.
The Cleveland Browns will NOT trade up; instead, the Browns trade back and/or out of picks to collect assets for 2024 and 2025
With eight selections in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns are in a situation that fans still aren't used to. The Browns simply do not have room on their roster for eight rookies, especially eight rookies who are selected on late Day Two and Day Three.
I could definitely see the Browns electing to use some of their draft capital this year to build a larger collection of assets next year and the following year. In fact, Browns GM Andrew Berry recently made a statement during a press conference that supported this notion.
As quoted by The News-Herald, "I wouldn't say it's a hard and fast rule," Berry told reporters, "But generally speaking, because we look at the draft more through a long-term lens, we probably in general would be more apt to move back than necessarily move up."
Andrew Berry says Browns more likely to trade down than up in NFL Draft next weekhttps://t.co/toktQa7jrr
— The News-Herald (@newsheraldinoh) April 22, 2023
It's also important to note that, while Berry has shed some insight on his draft philosophy, the Browns GM has only traded up once in his three drafts with the team.
The Carolina Panthers make Anthony Richardson the first-overall pick
It's been a while since I've seen a draft prospect create this much division in draft circles. Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson had a statistically subpar 2022 season.
In 12 games, he completed just 53.8% of his passes (176 completions on 327 attempts), 2,549 yards, and 17 touchdowns to nine interceptions. He added 654 yards on the ground and nine additional touchdowns. It was his only season as a starting quarterback in college. And yet I've totally bought into the upside for Richardson.
Richardson all but punched his ticket into the first round with his unbelievable NFL Combine testing (4.43-second 40-yard dash. 1.53-second 10-yard split, 40.5-inch vertical jump, and 10-foot-9 broad jump), and by all accounts, his post-combine interviews and workouts have several teams enamored with the raw but promising quarterback prospect. And at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds, it's not surprising that NFL coaches would be overcome by the upside Richardson presents with all his dominant physical tools.
While the tape might show some errant passes and more inaccuracy than I'd like to see, it's also apparent that Richardson already navigates the pocket like an NFL veteran. And with some coaching on his footwork (look what Panthers head coach Frank Reich did with Carson Wentz in both Philadelphia and Indianapolis), the accuracy issues could disappear, leaving the Panthers with the NFL's newest and most dangerous dual-threat quarterback.
I still believe Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud are the safest bets when it comes to finding a franchise signal caller in this year's draft. But Richardson has a ceiling unlike any quarterback in recent memory if everything comes together. This is a bold prediction I can see happening to kick things off Thursday night.
The Minnesota Vikings find a new starting quarterback in Trey Lance
Things change quickly in the NFL, and nothing's shown us that more than the situation in San Fransisco with the 49ers and third-year quarterback Trey Lance. After the 49ers sent three first-round picks to the Miami Dolphins to get Trey Lance in 2021, the team hasn't seen their investment pay dividends. In 2021, Lance essentially redshirted behind starter Jimmy Garoppolo. And in 2022, Lance suffered a broken ankle in just the second game of the season.
Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in the entire NFL Draft in 2022, was eventually thrust into the starting role. He showed he could lead the offense efficiently as the team made it all the way to the NFC Championship game, falling short to the Philadelphia Eagles. So now the debate all off-season has been whether the 49ers will stick with Purdy or give the reins back to Lance. But what if the 49ers decide to take a different route altogether?
If this draft-day trade happens, I will absolutely love it; and I don't think it's too outlandish. The Minnesota Vikings trade their first-round pick (No. 23 overall) and quarterback Kirk Cousins to the 49ers in exchange for Trey Lance (the 49ers would also probably have to send one of their third round picks or maybe a future second because Lance is largely unproven).
Cousins will turn 35 years old this season, and he's in the final year of his deal with the Vikings. The team restructured Cousins' contract this off-season when they couldn't work out a long-term extension, so it's possible 2023 will be his last season in Minnesota.
While he's played well for the Vikings, Cousins just hasn't been able to get the team to the next level in the playoffs. But if Purdy could execute the 49ers offense well enough to almost make it to the Super Bowl, then Kirk Cousins would give San Fransisco the best chance they've had yet. Remember, Cousins played for 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan when he was the offensive coordinator in Washington. So the connection for this deal is already there. Plus, with Purdy possibly not being ready for the start of the season after recently undergoing surgery on his throwing elbow, a trade for Kirk Cousins would give Purdy at least one more full season to get healthy and develop behind an established starter.
Whatever happens this weekend, the NFL Draft will be fun, exciting, and full of surprises with much debate. If you have bold predictions of your own, please post them in the comments section. This is one of the most enjoyable times of the year for NFL fans, so let's have some fun with it!