This is a rubber meeting-the-road moment for the 2023 Cleveland Browns. Sitting at a respectable 5-3, the Browns head to Baltimore to take on the AFC North-leading 7-2 Ravens. There's a ton on the line for Cleveland, not the least of which is redemption.
The Browns have been ultra-competitive in every single game they have played this season with the exception of one. That one game came at the hands of the Ravens in their own building. A 28-3 boat racing that felt like it was over after the Ravens’ first touchdown.
Now, there were many factors that went into the lopsided Week 4 debacle for Cleveland, the most notable being a rookie quarterback getting the start with 90 minutes' notice. And just as the Browns did to the fifth-round rookie quarterback getting his first start last week, the Ravens throttled Cleveland's offense led by a fifth-round signal caller getting his first opportunity back in Week 4.
The biggest difference between the week four matchup and this upcoming game is that the Browns will have their starting quarterback at the helm. With Deshaun Watson healthy, and with a week under his belt, the Browns should be able to make a much better account for themselves against the bully on the block in the AFC North.
3 Keys for the Browns to leave Baltimore with a victory in Week 10
Key No. 3: Tighten Up in the Red Zone
As improved as the Browns defense has been this season, there's an area that they have regressed from last season…the red zone. Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league giving up a touchdown in just under 67% of their red zone possessions. As much as Cleveland’s defense underperformed in 2022, that unit only gave up a touchdown on 55% of their red zone opportunities.
The good news is not many teams have been able to get into the redzone on this Browns defense. However, there is bad news as well. The Ravens were able to score touchdowns all on four of their red zone opportunities the last time these two teams met.
The Browns must be better at forcing field goal attempts if the Ravens get inside of their 20-yard line. The Ravens will be more than happy to grind out long drives and bleed clock, but in order for that style of play to work for Baltimore the majority of those drives need to end with six points. If the Browns defense can limit Baltimore’s red zone success, they will give their offense a fighting chance this week.
Key No. 2: Hit on your explosives
This Browns offense has been dealt many blows that a lesser team might not have been able to overcome. In the season opener, the Browns lost two-time All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin. Then in the second game of the season, the Browns lost their offense’s engine as well as the heartbeat of the team when Nick Chubb was lost for the season due to a knee injury.
Just when it appeared the Browns offense had turned a corner without Chubb and Conklin, Deshaun Watson was sidelined for over a calendar month with a rotator cuff injury.
So, with all the moving parts, it should come as no surprise that the offense has not been among the league’s most explosive units. Entering this week 10 matchup with the Ravens, the Browns are tied for the 20th in the league with only 13 passes of over 25 yards. Being tied with teams like the Broncos, Jets, and (cough) Buccaneers is not where this offense wants to be.
With Watson back under center this offense needs to become more explosive. In his first game back from injury, Watson was able to hit on two huge chunk plays to Amari Cooper. Both passes, 59 and 49 yards respectively, demonstrated Watson’s ability to hit receivers down the field in stride.
Now the Browns are facing a Ravens team that will load up to stop the run and dare Watson to beat them with his arm. The opportunities will be there for Watson to hit Cooper and Cedric Tillman on chunk plays and alter the Ravens ability to load the box. If the Browns stay stuck in a phone booth offense against this Baltimore defense, it will be a long afternoon and an even longer plane ride back to Cleveland.
Key No. 1: Get Baltimore off the field on the third downs
This is a strength vs a strength. The Browns defense has been outstanding at getting off the field on the third downs this season. Cleveland has been forcing fourth downs on 26% of their third down opportunities, the highest percentage in the league.
However, those numbers take a bit of a hit when the Browns are on the road. Cleveland is allowing teams to convert on 37% of third downs when they are on the opponent’s field. Fun side note, the Browns lead the league in forcing three and outs with a staggering 57%.
Enter the Ravens, who are converting first downs on 45% of their third down opportunities, which ranks them sixth in the NFL. The key to the Ravens offense is their first down efficiency. Lamar Jackson and company do not find themselves in many third and long situations.
In years past, that was due to the effectiveness of the Ravens’ running game. But this year, with Todd Monken as the offensive coordinator, the Ravens are a 50/50 proposition to throw on early downs. With Jackson completing a league leading 71.5% of his pass attempts, the Ravens are able to stay up with the sticks with relative ease.
For the Browns, putting Jackson in third and eight or more yards is the key. If the Ravens are consistently seeing third and four or less, it is basically a wrap due to Jackson’s ability to covert with his legs if all else fails.
Jim Schwartz has to find answers to limit Jackson’s effectiveness and efficiency. If it was just as easy as putting a spy on Jackson, Schwartz has the athletes to do it in Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Grant Delpit. However, the answer is more of an all-hands-on-deck approach where the entire defensive front has to converge on Jackson.
To be blunt, regardless of how the Browns approach Jackson, he will get his because he is just that special of an athlete. The key is to force Jackson into making mistakes and capitalizing on them when he does. The margin for victory in Baltimore is going to be slim, and it will get much slimmer if the Browns cannot get off the field on third downs.