Brian Hoyer: Is Matt Cassel a Cautionary Tale?

The Cleveland Browns are having a successful season and Brian Hoyer is opening eyes around the league. Hoyer’s breakout season has led to the Browns success. The Browns have improved on defense and have a good running game but Hoyer makes things go.

Yet he is a free agent at the end of the season and the Browns drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round of the draft last season. That, along with Hoyer’s limited history, has created a ton of questions about what the team will do at the quarterback position starting next year.

Hoyer supporters look at his record as a starting QB, his ability to limit turnovers, his leadership and his high football IQ as reasons to keep around.

Hoyer detractors see him as very limited with deep ball issues, limited yardage stats, inconsistency in accuracy and the weak schedule his wins have come against.

At this point it seems that Ray Farmer and the Browns will delay making any decision on Hoyer until the end of the season. The team will still hold the leverage of using the Franchise Tag on Hoyer at that point in time. They also will get a chance to see how Hoyer performs to close out the season when the pressure of a playoff spot is on the line.

Cassel could be a cautionary tale for the Browns. Cassell was a one year starter in the NFL before getting the Franchise Tag.

The other option is one that happened to Matt Cassel. The Browns could Tag Hoyer and then look to move him in a trade if they are not willing to make a long term commitment to him. The New England Patriots tagged Cassel and he signed the offer. Three weeks later the Patriots traded Cassel, along with linebacker Mike Vrabel, to the Kansas City Chiefs for a high second round pick.

Cassel could be a cautionary tale for the Browns. Cassell was a one year starter in the NFL before getting the Franchise Tag. The Patriots were not willing or able to pay Cassel long term with a guy named Tom Brady on their roster. The Browns don’t have a Brady type, instead an unproven Manziel is the lone other option.

Cassel did not start a single college game at USC but was able to stick as a 7th round pick with the Patriots. When Brady had season ending leg injury in 2008, Cassel took over the talented Patriots. He started the final 15 games leading the Pats to a 11 – 5 season. The Pats didn’t make the playoffs losing two different tie breakers, to the Dolphins for the Division and  the Ravens for the last Wild Card spot.

Cassel had solid if unspectacular stats that season. He threw for over 3,600 yards with 21 TDs and 11 INTs. He also ran for 270 yards and 2 TDs. The Patriots offensive scheme and weapons were a big reason for his success.

Yet he parlayed his one season starting for the Patriots into a starting role with the Chiefs. Before the 2009 season started with the Chiefs he also signed a 6 year, 62.7 million dollar contract. Quite a windfall for a player with only one season starting under his belt.

Cassel spent four seasons with the Chiefs, playing 15 games for two years and then only 9 games the last two seasons. The Chiefs went 4 – 11 in Cassel’s first season. In his second season the Chiefs made the playoffs and Cassel was named as a Pro Bowl alternative. A hand injury finished Cassel’s third season during his 9th game and the next season he was replaced by Brady Quinn.

He was released prior to the 2013 season and signed by the Minnesota Vikings. In 2013, his first year as a Viking, he was in and out of the lineup playing in 9 games. He started this season before giving way to rookie Teddy Bridgewater.

While Cassel’s career has been fine, including two season with double digit wins, it is a cautionary tale of what could happen with Brian Hoyer. Below is a chart of the basic stats between the two QBs. We extrapolated this season for Hoyer over 16 games to give equal comparison between the two guys:

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The biggest difference between Cassel and Hoyer is in completion percentage where Cassel has almost a 5 point advantage. Hoyer has a lower number of interceptions while Cassel would lead in touchdowns.

This is not to say that Hoyer will turn into Cassel  but based on their two seasons, limited history and contract similarities it is a history lesson that the Browns should keep in mind. The Patriots were able to move on from Cassel because Tom Brady was returning while the Browns have to decide on Brian Hoyer’s future with only the prospects of what Johnny Manziel could become. A stark contrast for the teams making the decision.

The Browns could let Brian Hoyer leave via free agency, could sign him to a long term contract or could Franchise Tag him. The Patriots tagged Cassel before trading him. Will the Browns use the Patriots model with their current starting QB?

What do you think about the Hoyer – Cassel comparison?