NFL Draft: Marcus Mariota Fall? History Says Yes

The dust has barely settled on the National Championship Game between the Oregon Ducks and THE Ohio State Buckeyes when questions about the quarterbacks began. Will Marcus Mariota come out? What about Cardale Jones? Would it benefit Jones to transfer instead? And did the game impact Mariota’s draft stock.

It will be a very interesting question as we ramp up to the NFL Draft: Could Marcus Mariota fall?

Before we take a look at what history tells us about the possibility, or likelihood, of Mariota falling, take here are a few pieces of information today about his stock:

Todd McShay – “Bottom line: By April 30, Mariota could be seen by teams as a bigger risk than Winston. But ultimately, teams could very well decide that Mariota’s on-field issues (he has outstanding intangibles) are a bigger concern. I think he absolutely has the tools and potential to develop into a very good NFL quarterback, but teams are going to have to gamble on him being able to get better in a lot of areas in which he hasn’t had much experience or great success to this point.”

Mel Kiper via 247 Sports – “Throwing into tight windows, being more precise and more accurate. It’s easy to hit the wide open receivers, we’re looking for the tight throws. I think he’s top ten but I think Winston has the edge as being more NFL-ready.”

Fansided – “Marcus Mariota’s last pass of his college career may have very well been an interception. It was just the final disappointment in his lackluster national championship game performance which raised more questions than answers. Does Mariota have the anticipation to succeed in the NFL? Can he ever shake his red zone woes?”

Rob Rang – “Mariota faces legitimate questions about how he’ll fare against tighter windows in the NFL, but he shows good awareness in the pocket, a live arm and, of course, great mobility.”

History

Here is a history of names to think about: Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn. What do they all have in common? Each of them at one time or another was expected to be a Top 5 pick and, for all of them except Manziel, at one point were concerned the “lock” to be the #1 overall pick. Not only did that not happen for any of these players but they all fell to the 22nd pick or below.

Today we just want to focus on the last two years, as many might say that Rodgers and Quinn were in a different time in the NFL. Using just Matt Miller of Bleacher Report, who does a great job and is a good representative of Mock Drafts, lets look at his Mock Drafts from around this time last year. In both his December 30th and February 5th Mock Drafts, Miller has Bridgewater going #1 overall to the Houston Texans and Manziel going #4 overall to the Cleveland Browns.

Most Mock Drafts are some combination of how they believe teams will draft as well as their own value of the players. Miller loved/loves Bridgewater and wasn’t so high on Manziel yet played them both in the Top 4. Manziel was drafted #22 overall and Bridgewater the last pick in the First Round. Neither played any games after the Feb. 5th Mock and yet they still fell.

Mariota is widely considered the #1 overall pick today.

Two years ago Miller had Geno Smith in his Top 3 all the way up till the NFL Draft actually started. In early February Smith was going #3 to the Raiders, after the Combine he was still at #3 and then in Miller’s final Mock he had him moved up to #2.

Marcus Mariota is widely considered the #1 overall pick today but all three of these QBs were expected to go very high and feel to 22 or lower. Every player is different, every draft is different and every team is different but it is easy to predict that he could fall as well.

This isn’t to pick on Matt Miller. We could look at most Mock Draft, CBS Sports, ESPN, Walter Football, and find the same thing. Miller is such a good analyst and fun, knowledgeable read so we wanted to highlight him but also highlight how little we know moving forward.

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Marcus Mariota could one of the first 5 or 6 picks and today it makes little sense that he would not be. On the other hand, based on history we can say pretty assuredly that we would not be shocked if Mariota fell even if it was “only” down to #12 or #19 where a certain Cleveland Browns GM is known to love him.

Mariota is an interesting prospect. He comes from a spread system, rarely needed to throw his receivers open and no Oregon QB has made an impact in the NFL from that system. He is however, according to all reports, a tireless worker who will give you everything he has to be good. His character and his physical abilities have not been questioned, yet, but will that be enough to keep him in his lofty perch or could he fall down to the Browns and the team snatch up who we currently think is the top overall pick?

History tells us the Browns could have two shots at Mr. Mariota.

What do you think of what history tells us about Marcus Mariota and the likelihood that he falls in the NFL Draft?

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