Why Marcus Mariota is MY Browns Pick

This article isn’t going to be an overwhelmingly analytically based article, instead just a focus on why Marcus Mariota would be my personal pick for the Cleveland Browns. As you well know I am a big fan of Danny Shelton for the Browns at #12 but not sure he falls that far at this point. Even if he did I would still select Mariota. There are few things that could happen between now and the NFL Draft that would change my mind on him if he falls to the Browns at 12 or 19.

First lets start with some people’s first thought “Doesn’t matter Mariota is getting drafted a lot higher than #12.” That is very possible. Quarterbacks tend to get drafted high. However, as we covered here, many quarterbacks have tumbled recently who were expected to go #1 overall at the start of the off-season. Also there are these two recent notes that make us think Mariota will fall:

and

So you have a quarterback that some NFL people are not as high on that won’t throw at the Combine and will likely not throw at Oregon’s Pro Day. Sounds like a recipe for a drop, along with concerns about him not playing in a pro style offense. Here is a quick Mock of reasons why the first 11 teams would pass on Mariota:

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1. Tampa Bay – Jameis Winston will grade out better, Lovie Smith will believe in his ability to control him and he might fit better into their offense.
2. Tennessee – Zach Mettenberger. I am only slightly kidding. Coach Ken Whisenhunt knows how quickly he could get fired and will see that Mariota needs time to develop.
3. Jacksonville – Blake Bortles
4. Oakland – Derek Carr
5. Redskins – Robert Griffin III and Jay Gruden is more likely to want a pocket passer, Teddy Bridgewater type, to tie himself to. Their team needs a number of other upgrades, especially on defense.
6. New York Jets – The Jets have Geno Smith, who hasn’t produced but hasn’t been terrible, and Todd Bowles is a defense oriented coach. He is unlikely to push for a QB who doesn’t check all the boxes in his first year at the job. He will push the GM to get him upgrades at other areas.
7. Bears – Jay Cutler‘s contract.
8. Falcons – Matt Ryan
9. Giants – Eli Manning
10. Rams – This is the one spot I would be very concerned about Mariota going. The Rams have invested in many other areas on their roster but have been limited by their QB. If Mariota falls it makes some sense. Jeff Fisher might be more interested in Sam Bradford or a veteran to lead his talented squad.
11. Vikings – Teddy Bridgewater
12. Browns – Draft Marcus Mariota

So now that I have cleared the reasons how I can see the Browns being able to draft Mariota let me explain a bit about why he would for sure be my pick.

The Good

Mariota stands at 6’5″ a prototype size for a quarterback. He isn’t overly big in weight, 220 pounds, but he is similar weight and 2 inches taller than Aaron Rodgers. He is obviously able to run the ball when plays break down or on Zone Read situations. No one will question his ability to run the ball.

Also there is no one questioning Mariota’s work ethic or character. According to all, Mariota is a very hard worker with high character. Mariota will put in the time to develop his talents to be the best quarterback he can be. He also isn’t going to get involved in any of the craziness that Johnny Manziel or Josh Gordon has.

The Bad

The biggest for sure knock about Mariota is that he is coming out of a spread system. Spread system QBs have struggled in their transition to the NFL. In college spread systems receivers tend to run wide open giving Mariota big windows to throw into. Very easy decision making that way. That doesn’t happen in the NFL. You have to throw players open, or at least force the ball into a very small window.

The Uncertain

There are a few things that are uncertain about Mariota:

• Does he have the arm to make all the throws?
• Is his frame too small to withstand the rigors of the NFL?
• When will he be ready to play the most important position in the league?

Some believe that Marcus Mariota has the type of arm needed to make all the throws needed in the NFL. Others worry, especially those who watched the National Title Game, that his arm is not good enough for the league.

As we mentioned in the good, some believe his size is fine and compare it to Aaron Rodgers. His frame, being 2 inches taller and a little thinner, is a concern. With his limited girth some believe he could get hurt a lot, ala RG3.

The final issues is less of a concern for me. Very few believe that Mariota should be starting next year as the season kicks off. The real question is how long will he take? Some wonder if he will develop quick enough to start sometime in the season, like Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr, or will he need even more time, like Johnny Manziel?

So given the bad and the uncertain, why is Marcus Mariota my pick?

Very simply I believe Mariota has the base physical tools that will be needed in the NFL. While his arm may be a question, I decided to pick a random video from DraftBreakdown (they do an awesome job) to watch. I picked the UCLA game, it was sunny was the reason, and watching the first 2 minutes were interesting:

Few throws that tell me he might have a good enough arm:

First, around 20 seconds in, when he was being dragged down he was still able to throw the ball out of bounds from more than halfway across the field. He got it to the line of scrimmage and out of bounds with a player on him. That is an impressive arm.

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Second, at about 1:05 his throw goes through his backs hand. Seemed to have a little pepper on it.

Thirdly, is the last play in the two minute clip that we pulled. Mariota, off his back foot fired a ball over the middle that hit a player so hard that it bounced back about 12 yards. Takes a ton of power to have a ball do that.

Yes there were throws that were concerning in that short post as well, not blind to his possible issues.

So based on his base physical ability, showing some arm talent and his work ethic, I believe that Mariota will be successful. I believe he will work very hard, with a year sitting behind a veteran like Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett, to turn his bad/concern areas into strengths.

He hasn’t been asked to play outside of the system at Oregon but a year of development with NFL principles and practices will give him the experience needed.

I have no doubt that Mariota will be successful, as long as he isn’t forced to play before he is ready. If he is drafted by the Bucs or Titans and asked to start right away he might struggle. That won’t be proof to me that he would have been a bad pick for the Browns.

Marcus Mariota is my pick for the Cleveland Browns.

What do you think about it Marcus Mariota after my thoughts?

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