NFL Free Agency: Are the Browns Better?
The Cleveland Browns entered NFL Free Agency with a bunch of cap space and some specific needs. As Free Agency kicked off with a bang, many fans were upset at the Browns inactivity. The Browns picked up two more pieces for their defense this week but still have fans concerned that the Browns are not better than they were last year.
Before we take a look at that, a quick look back at last year. Most believed the Browns would be in competition for the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft before the season started. This writer may be the most optimistic of all the Browns fans and even I picked them to go 8 – 8. The season went better than most expected, 7 – 9, and what seems like a solid building block of defense and running the football. Based on expectations, the Browns clearly overachieved.
Now we want to take an objective look at whether the Browns are better now, before any more free agent signings and using their 10 picks in the NFL Draft to further improve the roster. To do so we will be using Pro Football Focus’ ratings for the players lost and the players gained. If their information is good enough for NFL teams it is good enough for us.
Quarterbacks
Out – Brian Hoyer: -18.8
In – Josh McCown: -18.3
Analysis: We can just call this a wash as .5 when you are talking about those negative numbers is really splitting hairs. Each QB had a unique situation. Hoyer had to battle the pop start legend of Johnny Manziel as well as come back from knee surgery and not having his top receiver in Josh Gordon. McCown came to a new team, didn’t have an offensive coordinator (reports are he played that role a lot) and had a bad offensive line run game. Neither performed well last year and neither has a strong resume to back them up. The positive for McCown is he is willing to mentor the Browns young QBs.
Verdict: No change.
Wide Receiver
Out – Miles Austin: 1.1
In – Brian Hartline: -9.5
Analysis: Based on PFF’s grades this is a simple downgrade for the Browns. Austin was finally healthy and provided the team with a steadying influence. Most attribute Hartline’s disintegrated play to the new offensive system in place in Miami last year. It should help him this year that the Browns will run a West Coast Offensive style that suits him better but last year was clearly bad for him. Only Hakeem Nicks, Reggie Wayne and Demaris Johnson were graded worse among free agent WR by PFF.
Verdict: Downgrade
Defensive Line
Out – Ahtyba Rubin: -14.3
In – Randy Starks: -1.1
Analysis: Opposite of the WR position, the Browns clearly upgraded their defensive line by replacing Rubin with Starks. Rubin was a classic overachiever that fit well earlier in his career in a 4-3 defense. Starks has been a reliable player for years for the Dolphins and played more snaps than Rubin last year. Starks will join the Browns DL rotation and clearly upgrade over the long time Brown Rubin.
Verdict: Upgrade
Cornerback
Out – Buster Skrine: -6.3
In – Tramon Williams: 1.6
Analysis: Another clear win for the Browns. While Skrine and Williams both got paid big, Browns fans are not shocked by Skrine’s PFF rating. Skrine was always aggressive but got beat on double moves and had penalties called against him regularly. Williams is a bit older but has experience that will help young players K’Waun Williams, Pierre Desir and Justin Gilbert. Williams also comes from a winning program and has only missed 1 game due to injury in his career. Very durable player.
Verdict: Upgrade
Outside Linebacker
Out – Jabaal Sheard: 8.2
In – None
Analysis: While Sheard did not fit with the Browns 3-4 defense well, and should excel in New England, he still had a very good PFF rating. This is where the Browns really feel the hit of missing out on Trent Cole, 6.5 rating, in free agency. Had the Browns been able to reel him in, the team would have done a good job of replacing Sheard with a better fit. Instead, Sheard is gone and the team has not replaced their 3rd man in their OLB rotation. There are a couple older players available that could help or the team will be forced to address the need in the Draft.
Verdict: Downgrade
Tight End
Out – Jordan Cameron: -10.2
In – None
Analysis: This is an interesting one. Based on pure math, losing Cameron will actually make the Browns look better based on PFF grades. The problem with that is the team lost a talented player and have not replaced him yet. Cameron’s inability to stay healthy is a problem and we wouldn’t be shocked if struggled in the next couple of seasons with being hurt. The Browns have limited options but still could sign a player to replace him. That replacement may not have a higher ceiling but would likely have a higher grade than Cameron’s.
Verdict: Downgrade
Summary
The Browns downgraded at receiver, though Austin could return or Dwayne Bowe still could be signed, outside linebacker and tight end. They upgraded at defensive line and cornerback and had a basic wash at the quarterback position. So 3 worse and 2 better.
Based on just objectively adding the PFF grades the Browns improved by 13 rating points but 10 of those coincide with Cameron’s negative grade. Just looking at the 4 positions that the Browns replaced players at the team is 11 points better.
The other thing that is not factored in is improvement because of development. Last year the Browns roster average age was 25. With young players starting at multiple positions (RB, WR, OG, ILB, CB and FS) throughout the year, the team is bound to get better just based on development.
Then we can add in the 10 draft picks, however they are used, to upgrade the roster. The Browns should be able to add at least 3 starters from next years draft. The team has openings at tight end, wide receiver, nose tackle and quarterback where they could upgrade via the draft.
That isn’t to say the Browns have greatly impacted the quality of their team. If they chose to, the Browns could have tried to spend more money to bring in even more talent, while still having their draft picks. That talent may have blocked some of their young foundational players from getting time on the field but would have objectively, based on PFF’s ratings, made the team better. They could have done more.
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Yet here we stand. With free agents still available and the NFL Draft upcoming, the Browns are better based on PFF ratings and only slightly worse based on our subjective upgrade/downgrade system. The Browns went 7 – 9 last year yet could have a better roster with a worse record this upcoming year. Such is the life of an NFL team. The process is vital, even if the outcomes don’t always show the improvements.
We expect the Browns to be a much better team next year but have a worse record. That is a hard pill to swallow but an honest one.
Do you think the Browns are better since the start of NFL Free Agency?