NFL Draft: The Myth of the Sure Thing QB
Jan 1, 2015; Pasadena, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) runs off the field following the first half of the 2015 Rose Bowl college football game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Over 4,500 words about the Myth of the Sure Thing QB. The only thing we hope we convinced you of is this: There were very few QBs considered sure things when they were drafted. Most had some high level concerns. Both of the Mannings, Luck, RG3 and Palmer are the 5 that we note were considered “sure things” when they were coming out. Big Ben is close but his competition was a big concern leading him to be drafted #11.
Obviously this writer thinks that Marcus Mariota can be a star. If the Browns draft him and sit him for one year, like Palmer, he will be ready to explode on the league. Yet that is not really the point of all the work that was put into this post.
Even Jameis Winston is not considered a sure thing. Many are worried about his off the field decisions but he also struggles throwing interceptions when players drop into coverage in the middle of the field. That decision making could submarine his career even if he stays clean off the field.
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Browns fans have been begging for a sure thing Franchise Guy. They don’t want their team to spend a high pick on someone who isn’t certain to come in and be great. This exercise teaches us that those type of guys, at least before they get drafted, are very rare. Four out of the five we list were taken #1 overall, the other was taken second. Unless/until the Browns are drafting up there, we are unlikely to feel certain about whatever next QB they take.
How does this article change how you feel about the NFL Draft and the “sure thing” quarterback?