Dawg Pound Daily bettor’s guide to the NFL: Week 1
By Roger Cohen
Aug 15, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; General view of golden NFL shield logo in the end zone to commemorate Super Bowl 50 during the preseason NFL game between San Francisco 49ers and the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
With Yom Kippur still two weeks away, I’m confessing two sins early to my fellow Cleveland Browns’ fans.
First, instead of breaking the story on Dawg Pound Daily about stopping a half century of football gambling, I pledged sobriety on the global platform of The Wall Street Journal in a bylined story: A Football Gambler Gives Up the Game.
Worse though – and there’s not enough Harvard-trained therapists to analyze all the crazy reasons behind why I do it – but I also confess to betting against the Browns. But only the dozen times they were favorites over the past four seasons. Netted solid returns.
You want an even better investment? On those rare occasions the Browns have led at halftime, I’ve bet they wouldn’t cover the second-half line. I’ve only had one loss since The Return: when T.J. Ward took a garbage time Buffalo interception to the house on a Thursday night during the 2013 season, capping a 37-24 Browns win. If Ward had just taken a knee, I’d have won that play, too.
I thought my Dawg Pound Daily editor would banish me for taking my sobriety vows on another news outlet, but he demonstrated the healing power of forgiveness and suggested I do a “Vegas-style” pick ’em column for this site. (Editor’s note: We try to be judicious in our use of the cat ‘o nine tails.)
So here goes. But first, a few rules:
- This is for recreational purposes only.*
- Unlike all those “Guaranteed Lock of the Year” offers, I’m offering this handicapping advice free of charge – just what it’s worth.
One final confession before we get to Sunday’s games. As my wife, Janet, and all my former gambling buddies can attest, Thursday night I was all over the Steelers at +7 and would have hedged the Patriots in a teaser to win the game at -1.
If you watched to the end – and listened to Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth dance around the unspeakable – you saw the Yinzers barely sustain a garbage time drive, capped by a Ben Roethlisberger touchdown pass with two seconds left. That score won or at least tied all the Steeler action.
(And by the way, you just know Roethlisberger will duplicate a score like that at least once more this year to beat the Browns.)
OK, enough stalling. Here are you plays for Sunday, staring with the Browns, who will lose (as they have done 14 times in the past 15 years), but may well cover the as they are getting 3 points. Teasing the Jets (a bet where you add an additional 6 points to the spread) makes sense. But be prepared and pray I’m wrong, as I see the Browns losing 13-12 on a last second field goal, and thanks to Travis Coons becoming first NFL kicker to botch the new longer point-after attempt.
The rest of “what I would have bet if I were betting” Sunday:
- Peyton Manning is still not right and I’m believing the Ravens’ press clippings. Baltimore +5.
- Like Cleveland, Tampa Bay should never be favored: Tennessee +3.
- The faux Bears we saw against the Browns’ third string were who we thought they were, but a battered Green Bay team shouldn’t be laying a touchdown on the road: Bears +7.
- Addition by RG3 subtraction. Not-to-be-named Washington team +3 vs. Miami.
- If you’re looking for a safe teaser to close on Sunday/Monday nights (other than J-E-T-S), add your six points to the Cincinnati Bengals (-3) in Oakland.
I’m looking forward to just be “all in” on a Browns win Sunday, and won’t miss gambling the other games. We’ll see if not risking my money makes me any smarter.
*Editor’s note: Seriously, this is for entertainment purposes only. Gamble at your own risk.