Dawg Pound Daily bettor’s guide to the NFL: Week 3
By Roger Cohen
Sep 20, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jimmy Clausen (8) calls a play during the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Maybe I wasn’t listening close enough but I didn’t hear a “thank you” for going a perfect 3-0 on my straight plays last week as my three live underdogs – Dallas, Jacksonville and Oakland – didn’t just cover the spread, but each won their game outright!
As an added bonus, I listened to da’ Raiders beating the hated Ravens as I drove back from my “Fan of the Game” experience at FirstEnergy Stadium. That six-plus hour drive back to Washington, D.C., flew by.
As for my “teaser” selections (a parlay bet where you get to add six points to each team), Pittsburgh won in a walkover, but the J-E-T-S defense might be as good as we thought after beating favored Indianapolis, and the Titans comeback thankfully sputtered. (Note: who amongst you didn’t think the Browns would blow the game when they couldn’t muster a first down and the lead shrunk to 21-14 early in the fourth quarter?)
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Last week we employed our “Set Your Own Lines” theory to go a perfect 3-0. This week we offer Cohen’s Corollary, “Take Every Double-Digit Underdog Without Exception” and the “It’s Banking, Not Gambling, Betting Against the Favored Browns” guidance we dished out in our sobriety pledge in The Wall Street Journal.
The Browns have been favored in 12 of the their last 48 games and have covered the spread in just three of those games. For those who are math challenged, betting against the favored Browns wins 75 percent of the time.
For Week 3 – and remember, regardless of how ugly it may be, you have to stick with the “Double-Digit Dog” every week, every game. Just close your eyes, hold your nose because this week’s double-digit dogs really stink, and you’ll smell money at season’s end:
- Chicago +15 (and likely more at game time) at Seattle. Jimmy Clausen, winless Seahawks, etc. Take the points.
- Jacksonville +14 at New England. The Jaguars have some fight and maybe we’ll see a Bill Belichick-Tom Brady letdown after two big wins.
- Kansas City +7 on Monday night against Green Bay at Lambeau Field. The Chiefs should hang tough because the Packers are a bit banged up.
- Of course, Oakland +3.5. Derek Carr took the Raiders 90 yards in two minutes to beat Baltimore – you think Josh McCown can beat him by more than a field goal?
For teasing (adding six points to the spread) this week:
- Pittsburgh (again) to beat or keep it close in St. Louis.
- Philadelphia teased up to +8 vs. the Jets. If the Eagles lose this game, Philly fans may forget Pope Francis’ visiting their city praying for world peace. In fact, if they lose, Eagles coach Chip Kelley may want to bum a ride with His Holiness on that Alitalia jet back to the Vatican.
- Obviously, Oakland plus 9+1/2. Ronald Reagan was in the White House the last time Cleveland registered double-digit wins two games in a row.
PS – I know you’re tempted to bet against our former failed middle reliever Brandon Weeden since he sure isn’t a starting pitcher. But Atlanta favored in AT&T Stadium? Uh, no – Weeds could chuck one up at the end to earn a back door cover.
Season Record: Straight 4-3. Teasers 3-3. It’s a long season but, so far, we’re above water.
*Editor’s note: Seriously, this is for entertainment purposes only. Gamble at your own risk.