Dawg Pound Daily Bettor’s Guide to the NFL: Week 6
By Roger Cohen
Oct 11, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) throws a screen pass to running back Mark Ingram (22) during a game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles won 39-17. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
It’s good that I have this Dawg Pound Daily gig to scratch my football gambling itch, because if I were betting real money – and I hope you’re not – my “old school” bookmaker could afford the down payment on a new Cadillac, instead of doing his collections from the 1988 model he cruises around Washington, D.C. in.
Consistently reliable, mathematically validated theories deserted me last week as “Bad Team Giving Points” Tampa Bay (-3) beat Jacksonville 38-31, and “Bet Against Teams Covering More Than Three Weeks Straight” only worked in Washington’s (+7.5) sudden death 25-19 loss to Atlanta.
Green Bay continued its betting winning ways by beating St. Louis (+9) 24-10, and New England’s 30-6 pasting of Dallas (+9.5) did lead to a new wagering “Aha-moment”:
Always, always, bet against the team that starts Brandon Weeden.
My teaser plays kept up their 75 percent winning clip as the New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos all won their games – the only loss, thankfully, being when the Cleveland Browns beat the Baltimore Ravens in overtime. (That didn’t take much of an effort – just another perfect day from Travis Coons and Josh McCown breaking the single-game pass yardage record of a 70-year old franchise.)
We’ll stick to some theories and just some hunch plays for Week 6:
- Tonight New Orleans (+3.5) gets back some home-field Cajun karma against an overrated Atlanta Falcons squad, as genius offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan may be entering a mid-October funk.
- Miami (+2.5) should show up in Tennessee, or else new coach Dan Campbell’s head may explode.
- Two home dog “upset specials” to tighten the AFC North race: Buffalo (+3.5) to give the Cincinnati Bengals their first loss, and Pittsburgh (+3.5) will shut down Arizona.
- The “Bet Against Three Consecutive Covers” gives us two intriguing plays: Indianapolis (+9) at home on Sunday night should break the New England Patriots’ streak, but the Tom Brady Vindication Tour may take no prisoners all year. But if Andrew Luck is healthy, he can hang in.
- The streaking Packers are laying points to the visiting San Diego Chargers (+10) so the “Play Every Double-Digit Dog” theory comes into play. Except if Michael Vick and Josh McCown can, in back-to back games, lead 80-plus yard drives at the end of the game against the Charger secondary, what havoc can Aaron Rodgers wreak at Lambeau? Still, counting on Phillip Rivers to keep it close.
For my hot teaser card, no surprise:
- The Browns find a way to lose to Denver, maybe on multiple Coons’ misses, maybe on a last-minute interference call. But the Browns – again – will hang tough.
- Seattle and its 12th Man will make life miserable for Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton.
- Monday night, the Philadelphia Eagles find a way against the visiting New York Giants, and you could wind up with Phlly +3 on the extra six-point teaser play.
- Oh, and even if the Ravens blow another late lead, they won’t lose by more than a touchdown in San Francisco.
Season Record: Straight 6-11-1. Teaser 11-5.