Dawg Pound Daily bettor’s guide to the NFL: Week 7
By Roger Cohen
Oct 18, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts head coach Chuck Pagano in the first half during the NFL game against the New England Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Maybe I did pick the wrong year, certainly the wrong week, to give up football gambling.
Last week five of our six “live dog” picks were winners: New Orleans (+3.5), Miami (+2.5), Pittsburgh (+3.5), Indianapolis (+9) and San Diego (+10), with the Saints, Dolphins and Steelers each earning double-digit outright wins.
Not complaining, but we should get to play a “let” on our Buffalo (+2.5) play in their 34-21 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals since at Dawg Pound Daily press time we didn’t know quarterback EJ Manuel would replace injured starter Tyrod Taylor. But we’ll take 5-1 against the spread every weekend.
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Our teaser plays (where you get an additional six points) continued their 75 percent winning clip as the Philadelphia Eagles beat the New York Giants, 27-7, and the Baltimore Ravens’ 25-20 loss in San Francisco also covered the teaser bet. And, well, you know what happened – as it has every time since the first Bush Administration – Denver beat Cleveland.
Our only loss was when the Seattle Seahawks’ 12th Man and their other supposedly great 11 men on defense gave up two, 80-yard fourth-quarter touchdown drives to Carolina Panther’s quarterback Cam Newton.
Hoping our hand stays hot in Week 7, here are our picks:
- New England can’t cover every week, can they? Ryan Fitzpatrick shines back in Harvard’s backyard for the New York Jets (+9).
- After the Minnesota Vikings barely beat flawed a flawed Kansas City Chiefs squad, the home dog Detroit Lions (+3) will win an NFC North snoozer.
- Once Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton starts entering the MVP talk, it is time for a return to earth as not-of-this-earth head coach Chip Kelly schemes a win out of the Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5).
- I would have emptied my 401K if before the season someone had offered me the Baltimore Ravens at +7.5 against anyone, anywhere. If Baltimore falls to 1-6 on the road against the Arizona Cardinals, Browns fans might start feeling sorry for the Ravens.
I’m rock-solid confident on some Teaser plays (where you get an extra six points) this week, in order from best to not best:
- Seattle will beat the San Francisco 49ers tonight.
- Unless Indianapolis Colts head coach Chuck Pagano tries running, rather than kicking, an extra point from the 15-yard line (without realizing it’s still only one point), Indianapolis beats the New Orleans Saints at home.
- Despite Browns-like distractions with Sammy Watkins’ whining and Percy Harvin’s “personal reasons” or the always convenient “visa problems,” the Buffalo Bills might shut out the Jacksonville Jaguars in London in a game that might turn off a generation of potential European football fans. BTW – I do love these 9:30 a.m. kickoffs since I get to skip two types of un-watchable TV: Sunday morning talkers and NFL pre-game shows. (Editor’s note: That’s why we love the 11 a.m. Premier League game on Sundays.)
- Finally, look for the St. Louis Rams to beat the Cleveland Browns. Why? Well, just because.
Season record: Straight 11-12-1; Teaser 14-6.