Dawg Pound Daily bettor’s guide to the NFL – Week 13

Nov 29, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) drops back to pass against the Buffalo Bills in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City won the game 30-22. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve been predicting a missed Travis Coons kick would cost the Cleveland Browns a game at some point … but I never thought it would happen like that!

But enough’s been written about that, so let’s recap the wagering.

It was another “win one, lose one” type of Thanksgiving weekend, looking prescient when the Brock Osweiler-led Denver Broncos (+3.5) upset the New England Patriots in an incredibly entertaining snowy Sunday nighter, the Washington Redskins (-2) beat up the New York Giants, and the San Francisco 49ers (+10.5) hung with the Arizona Cardinals.

The losses? When the Tennessee Titans (-2) couldn’t stop the Oakland Raiders’ last-minute touchdown drive, the Atlanta Falcons (-2) turned it over multiple times to the Minnesota Vikings, and the Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) secondary channelled the Browns’ arm-tackling on a last-minute screen pass touchdown for a back-door cover by the Seattle Seahawks.

Both the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills earned teaser wins, while the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins lost blowouts. And, of course, the Baltimore Ravens were going to cover the teaser even if Coons had made the kick.

Only one game jumps off the board, screaming “bet me” in Week 13 – and you won’t believe which one it is:

• Cleveland (+10) and starting Austin Davis makes this a safer play. The Browns come back from dead to keep it close against the Cincinnati Bengals, and maybe Johnny Manziel comes off the bench for last-minute win. Consider that storyline …
• I kinda’ like two other plays in the old school AFC West: the Kansas City Chiefs (-3) in Oakland, and the San Diego Chargers (+4.5) catching hungover Denver after their Sunday night overtime win.
• Upset special: the New Orleans Saints (+7) knock the Carolina Panthers from the unbeaten ranks.

On teasers where you get an additional six points:

• The Buffalo Bills stay within a field goal of the Brian Hoyer-led Houston Texans, and the New York Jets won’t beat the New York Giants by more than a touchdown.
• I can’t see the San Francisco 49ers beating the Bears in Chicago, or the reeling St. Louis Rams more than a field goal better than the Arizona Cardinals.

Season record: Straight 26-25-2; Teasers 34-15.