Dawg Pound Daily’s bettor’s guide to the NFL: Week 15

Dec 13, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) is sacked by Oakland Raiders defensive end Khalil Mack (52) during an NFL football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Raiders defeated the Broncos 15-12. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

In a tough year for betting on the NFL, let us help you decide who to take in Week 15.

I probably saved $800, maybe even more than $1000 by not betting — and that’s just last week.

Whew.

My Atlanta Falcons (+9) “Dawg Pound Daily Upset Special” got embarrassed 38-0 by the Carolina Panthers, my Baltimore Ravens (+ 11) “End of Hanukkah Lock” fell 35-6 to the Seattle Seahawks, and the Dallas Cowboys turned up Weeden-like in Lambeau. On Sunday night, my formerly reliable theory to bet against Belichick when he’s looking at his former assistants on the other sideline crapped-out as Mr. Mumbles and Brady squashed the Brian Hoyer-led Houston Texans (+4). My only straight winner was when San Diego (+10) barely covered in Kansas City.

But the bet which would have really tapped out my ATM limit, the one my bookmaker would have financed his new car with was, of course, teasing everything to San Francisco (+7.5). Then I’d have doubled-down and gone “all in” at halftime by betting the Cleveland Browns wouldn’t outscore the 49ers by more than a touchdown in the second half.

You know how many times since 1999 Cleveland has led at the half and then outscored its opponent by more than double digits in the final 30 minutes?

Not once. Never. Until last Sunday.

It was small consolation that my other three teaser plays — the Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets and Washington Redksins all won outright. Hopefully, none of you followed my lead, and if you’re reading this, you’re probably a Browns fan so just enjoy a surreal Sunday of few penalties, crisp blocking and tackling, several “wow, how did he did do that plays” and then watching Johnny take a knee.

In aviation, pilots advise to rely on your instruments if you’re losing control of the plane, so I’ll rely on two fundamental principles — home underdogs and “go against bad teams favored”for Week 15:

• Sticking with now battle-tested Clausen-led Baltimore (+7.5) to play Kansas City tough in Charm City.
• Want to feel even worse being a Browns fan? We passed on Khalil Mack. Oakland +3 hosting Green Bay.
• If Arizona comes east and shows up Chip Kelly Sunday Night, I’ll get on the bandwagon. Philadelphia (+4).
• The Jacksonville Jaguars may have laid half a hundred on the Indianapolis Colts last week, but they’re still Jacksonville. Atlanta ( 3.5).

In teasers (where you get an additional six points):

Dallas stays within ten Saturday Night, Washington squeaks by the Bills, Pittsburgh welcomes Brock Osweiler to Heinz Field, and I don’t see the 49ers recovering from their “we’re worse than the Browns” hangover to beat the AJ McCarron-led Cincinnati Bengals. 

Season record: Straight 29-31-2.  Teasers 40-17.