Dawg Pound Daily bettor’s guide to the NFL – Week 16

Dec 20, 2015; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) calls a play against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the third quarter at EverBank Field. The Atlanta Falcons won 23-17. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

It was a rough week for our resident gambling expert, but he own’s his record and is back with his predictions for Week 16 of the NFL.

Now I know what Cleveland Browns head coach Mike Pettine means when he explains each depressing loss by saying “we own our record.”

In my inaugural (and perhaps farewell) season handicapping for Dawg Pound Daily, my record on straight bets continued to slip below break even as my three underdogs – the Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles and Oakland Raiders – each lost convincingly.

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My sole winner? The Atlanta Falcons (-3.5), who kicked a last-minute field goal against the Jacksonville Jaguars to earn what gamblers call a “back door cover.”

If we just count teasers (a parlay bet where you get an extra six points), I’m boasting a smoking hot 72 percent season as I went a perfect 4-0 last week when the Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins and Pittsburgh Steelers won outright, and the Dallas Cowboys stayed within 10 of the New York Jets.

Limping toward the finish line in Week 16, I’m a sucker for double-digit dogs, so let’s roll with ’em:

  • The Seattle Seahawks are finagling another Super Bowl run, but the St. Louis Rams’ defense learned what not do if they watched the Browns tape. Soon-to-be not St. Louis (+13.5).
  • In a game that’s always within a field goal, the Baltimore Ravens (+10.5) at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
  • Kansas City lays back and Johnny Manziel gets a back door cover in Arrowhead. Browns (+12).

In addition, let’s go with:

  • J-E-T-S (+3.5) keep pace in the wild card hunt vs. the banged-up New England Patriots.
  • Still in that New Jersey state of mind, the New York Giants (+6) dim the Minnesota Vikings’ NFC North hopes.
  • Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly are MVP-worthy, but I don’t see the Carolina Panthers staying perfect. Upset special in the Atlanta Falcons (+7).

In teasers, Washington is on a roll and will stay within 10 of the Eagles, the Buffalo Bills pull it together at home against Dallas, and two visitors to the Mountain Time Zone both stay within 11 points: the Green Bay Packers in the desert against the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati vs. the Denver Broncos.

Season record: Straight 30-34-2; Teasers 44-17.

Schedule